ASCOT - JULY 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £280.40 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.10): 9 (Mutawatheb) & 6 (Frankuus)
Leg 2 (2.45): 2 (Fair Eva) & 12 (Seduce Me)
Leg 3 (3.20): 11 (Taurean Star), 8 (Von Blucher) & 12 (Kingston Kurrajong)
Leg 4 (3.55): 18 (Nino Tristan), 17 (Mullionheir), 5 (Bossy Guest) & 15 (Withernsea)
Leg 5 (4.30): 3 (Highland Reel), 1 (Dartmouth) & 2 (Erupt)
Leg 6 (5.00): 12 (Robero) & 1 (Fieldsman)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: ‘Team Hannon‘ have won two of the last four renewals and there is every chance that MUTAWATHEB can improve the ratio further still, albeit only two of Richard's last 34 runners had won at the time of writing, before Friday's sport was contested. There was plenty to like about the way that Richard's Dark Angel colt won at Newbury having found one too good for him at the first time of asking. That said, this is a hot race, especially with FRANKUUS, MONTICELLO and DUBAI HERO among the eight rivals.
Favourite factor: Five of the eleven favourites have finished nearer last than first to date. That said, four of the last seven market leaders have obliged.
2.45: FAIR EVA went to Haydock on her debut with a big home reputation to confirm and boy, did the Frankel filly live up to her name! Okay, the Frankel bubble had to burst following a sensation start to his stud career but I have this feeling that given the positive Charlton words still ringing in my ears, FAIR EVA will go from strength to strength, for the time being at least. This 'Princess Margaret' event has never been easy to win however, and the likes of SEDUCE ME and MAGICAL FIRE will figure prominently, which is probably the biggest understatement I have offered this year.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders have won during the last thirteen years alongside two joint favourites. Nine of the last ten winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.
3.20: The five winners to date came into their relevant events off official marks of 97/91/90/86/83 which eliminates four of the fifteen contenders (top and bottom of the list) if you believe in such trends. The pick of the other eleven declarations will hopefully prove to be TAUREAN STAR and KINGSTON KURRAJONG, and not just because they race off a mark of 89 which just happens to be the average winning ratio of the figures quoted! Taurean Star boasts fine course figures (see below), whilst representing Michael Bell's stable which has surged into top form of late. Similarly, Andrew Balding has been churning out regular winners this week and KINGSTON KURRAJONG more than deserves his place in the field. Throw VON BLUCHER into the mix and we have a trio that I happy to offer from a Placepot viewpoint at the very least.
Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have finished in the frame by securing gold and silver medals.
Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:
2/3--Taurean Star (good to soft & good to firm)
3.55: I made a strong case for 33/1 winner Galician three years ago, whilst Heavy Metal was the first horse mentioned in dispatches at the same price twelve months on! Four-year-olds have won 11 of the last 16 renewals, whilst 15 of the last 18 winners have scored at 9/1 or more. 10 of the last 12 gold medallists have carried weights of 8-9 or more and adding all the stats and facts together produces a ‘short list’ of MULLIONHEIR, BOSSY GUEST, WITHERNSEA and NINO TRISTAN. If I had to nominate one horse it would be the last named raider, despite the fact that Richard Fahey's raider runs from 16 ounces below the 'superior' weight barrier. Mark Johnston has secured three of the last eight winners though his two raiders do not qualify via the vintage and weight trends on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Just one joint favourite has won via seventeen renewals to date, whilst only four of the twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/3--Flash Fire (good to firm)
2/11--Heavens Guest (soft & good to soft)
1/11--Jack Dexter (soft)
1/7--Majestic Moon (good to soft)
1/5--Squats (good to firm)
2/3--Scottish Glen (2 x good to firm)
4.30: Four-year-olds have won ten renewals during the last thirteen years in the ‘King George‘, the other three contests having been secured by three-year-olds. Six consecutive favourites scored between 2004 and 2009, with the other seven winners during the recent study period were sent off at odds ranging between 7/2 and 9/1. If you read my analysis when DARTMOUTH won at 10/1 at the royal meeting, I suggested that you could not split Sir Michael Stoute's duo, despite the fact that the trainer also saddled the 6/4 favourite in the Hardwicke Stakes. This race generally takes a great deal more winning, though with vintage figures on his side, the dual course and distance winner cannot be left out of the mix. There is a chance on this faster ground however, that HIGHLAND REEL could take his revenge, whilst connections of ERUPT are entitled to be surprised by the fact that (Irish raiders apart) their representative is the lone 'foreign' raider in a renewal which might take a great deal of winning, especially when compared to some of the magnificent contests down the years.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed, whilst the last seventeen gold medallists have emerged via the front five in the betting.
Record of course winners in the 'King George':
2/4--Dartmouth (Good to soft & good to firm)
1/2--Sir Issac Newton (good to soft)
5.00: Four-year-olds have won 10 of the last 17 contests, whilst you should always look out for pilots which ride winners of these races (for lady riders) on a regular basis. Putting those stats and facts together produces a short list of ROBERO, FIELDSMAN, SAKHEE'S RETURN and SECRET GLANCE.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (one winner), whilst the returned prices of winners include those at 33/1-33/1-20/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-11/1 during the study period.
Record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
1/2--Norman Barriere (good to firm)
1/18--Hawkeyethenoo (good to firm)
1/2--Childsplay (good to firm)
2/14--Redvers (2 x good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday:
6--Mark Johnston (2/32 at Ascot this season before Friday's sport was contested - winners at 11/4* & 15/8*)
5--Richard Fahey (1/19 - winner at 7/1)
4--Brian Ellison (0/5)
4--Richard Hannon (3/54 - winners at 3/1-3/1-11/4)
3--Charlie Appleby (2/24 - winners at 20/1 & 11/2)
3--Andrew Balding (0/15)
3--Marco Botti (0/4)
3--Karl Burke (1/7 - winner at 7/4*)
3--Mick Channon (0/17)
3--John Gosden (5/31 - winners at 20/1-17/2-11/4*-5/2-5/4*)
3--Aidan O'Brien (7/27 - winners at 33/1-16/1-7/1-15/8*-13/8*-10/11*-8/11*)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (3/23 - winners at 10/1-7/1-9/2)
2--Clive Cox (3/13 - winners at 16/1-16/1-4/1)
2--Ed Dunlop (1/6 - winner at 6/1)
2--Jim Goldie (0/7)
2--William Haggas (1/21 - winner at 7/2*)
2--Stuart Williams (1/3 - winner at 8/1***)
+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
95 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Lingfield: £529.50 - 7 favourites - 2 winners & 5 unplaced
Newmarket: £1,266.20 - all 6 favourites unplaced
Newcastle (was turf/now A/W): £159.40 - 7 favourites - No winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced
Salisbury: £229.10 - 6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced
York: £427.30 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced
Chester - New fixture
Ascot overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.10 & 2.45 (these figures were compiled before Friday's sport was contested):
0/5--David Simock (Alcazar)
0/7--Ed Dunlop (Apex King)
2/8--Marco Botti (Bahamas)
0/4--Karl Burke (Burishoole Abbey)
5/22--Saeed Bin Suroor (Dubai Hero)
5/62--Mark Johnston (Frankus & Monticello)
5/61--Mick Channon (King Of Spades)
11/75--Richard Hannon (Mutawatheb)
2/10--Paul Cole (Dainty Dandy)
1/7--Roger Charlton (Fair Eva)
6/27--Aidan O'Brien (How)
2/17--Tom Dascombe (Kachess)
5/62--Mark Johnston (Kilmah)
0/23--Richard Fahey (Kocollada & Marie Of Lyon)
0/5--Joseph Tuite (Madame Dancealot)
0/1--M D O'Callaghan (Magical Fire)
3/15--Charlie Appleby (Nasimi)
0/1--Hughie Morrison (Poet's Princess)
0/4--Karl Burke (Seduce Me)
0/8--George Baker (Tallulah Rose)