Placepot pointers – Saturday July 30

GOODWOOD - JULY 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £716.40 (7 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 23 (Barnet Fair), 15 (Mukaynis), 22 (Cool Bahamian) & 28 (Fairway To Heaven)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Move Up), 16 (Jammeh) & 5 (Soldier In Action)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Minding)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Ridge Ranger), 28 (Dancing Star), 4 (Kimberella) & 8 (Toofi)

Leg 5 (4.20): 4 (Ghayyar), 7 (Lockheed) & 10 (Ray's The Money)

Leg 6 (4.55): 6 (Bobbie Wheeler), 7 (Whitman) & 5 (Estidraak)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Goodwood - please scroll down to the bottom of the page - lots of info

 

2.00: With 125 runners having been declared at Goodwood on Saturday, I get the distinct impression that the 'poor' Placepot dividends earlier in the week might be brought to a swift end on Saturday!  David Nicholls has snared seven of the seventeen renewals thus far and with David having scored with my 7/1 selection BARNET FAIR two years ago, I feel duty bound to support David's lone representative in the opening event. Eight of the last eleven winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5 for good measure (my selection runs off 8-12), with MUKAYNIS, COOLBAHAMIAN and FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN added into the potential toteplacepot mix.

Favourite factor: Just three of the last fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (no winners) since four consecutive market leaders obliged between 2000 and 2003.

Record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/5--Seeking Magic (good)

1/3--Hoof It (good to firm)

2/3--Iseemist (good & good to soft)

1/5--Related (good to firm)

1/3--Barnet Fair (good to firm)

1/5--Extrasolar (good)

2.35: Nine of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last eight winners.  JAMMEH and SOLDIER IN ACTION might represent Mark and the team to best effect this time around via their four declarations.  If the weight trend is to be breached on this occasion, I could fancy MOVE UP to figure prominently, Saeed Bin Suroor's recent Ascot (good to firm) winner having won on three of his last four assignments.  Out of interest, Saeed's Dubawi colt won the other relevant events on good ground.

Favourite fact: Last year's market leader was the first successful favourite since the turn of the Millennium, whilst just three of the last ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.  Five of the last twelve winners have been returned in double figures.

3.10: Three-year-olds have won 11 of the last 17 renewals,whilst John Gosden has secured thee of the last four renewals, with the trainer having offered the green light to him three-year-old Zamindar filly SWISS RANGE. Four of the five entries represent the vintage here, with MINDING standing out from the crowd for obvious reasons. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won with three of his eight runners at the 'glorious' meeting this week (before Friday's sport was contested) and there is every chance that the ratio will be improved upon in this Group 1 event. A winner of four of her last five assignments, MINDING should take care of these rivals with the minimum of fuss.  She has eight pounds (and more) in hand of this opposition according to the official assessor.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last nineteen renewals of this Nassau Stakes (including seven of the last thirteen) whilst market leaders have secured fifteen toteplacepot positions during the study period.  The biggest priced winner during the period has been returned at 11/2 if we conveniently forget the 20/1 gold medallist three years ago.

3.45: 14 of the last 20 winners of the Stewards Cup have contested Royal Ascot’s Wokingham Stakes en route to lifting this prize, whist 15 gold medallists during the period hailed from the four and five-year-old ranks (four-year-olds have won six times during the last twelve years).  Seven of the last eleven winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Taking all the stats and facts into account, my extended overnight short list consists of TOOFI, RIDGE RANGER and KIMBERELLA, who was a facile winner of his last race.  If the weight trend lets us down on this occasion, three-year-old DANCING STAR might rescue the followers of this column.  As far as the draw is concerned, this quartet offer two runners on each side of the track and if something blitzes the track in the middle of the stall positions, ORION'S BEAU could emerge as the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the seventeen favourites during the last thirteen years have secured toteplacepot positions which is a phenomenal record in such a competitive event.  Those stats include four successful favourites which equates to market leaders having produced a level stake profit of twelve and a half points during the last thirteen years.

Record of course winners in Saturday's big handicap:

1/1--Ridge Ranger (good to soft)

1/3--Duke Of Firenze (good)

1/2--Go Far (good)

1/1--Dancing Star (good) - yes, just four course winners in the Steward's Cup, which is surely a record!

4.20: 'Team Hannon' has secured four of the last thirteen renewals, statistics which include three of the last nine contests. Richard saddles GHAYYAR ("a nice big horse with a bit of attitude about him" - according to the trainer) who should figure prominently.  Connections might have most to fear from LOCKHEED and RAY'S THE MONEY, albeit this is something of a 'guessing game'.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last nineteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions whilst three market leaders prevailed, though the last fifteen ‘jollies’ have all been beaten from a win perspective.

4.55: The last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-9 which eliminates the bottom seven (of 16) in the handicap.  BOBBIE WHEELER makes most appeal, the recent Ascot winner only having been out up five pounds for what looked an impressive victory from an improving Pivotal colt.  Two of this week's in form trainers Mark Johnston (Whitman) and Sir Michael Stoute (Estidraak) could also add to respective numbers in the toteplacepot finale.

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Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite during the (18 year) study period, whilst 10 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions since I started researching the contest.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2--Palawan (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Goodwood card on Saturday - Stats up to and including Thursday July 28:

9--Richard Fahey (1/14 at Goodwood this season - winner at 6/1)

8--Mark Johnston (6/41 - winners at 17/2-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-5/2)

5--George Baker (0/16)

5--Richard Hannon (6/43 - winners at 16/1-7/1-9/2*-9/2-7/2-3/1)

4--David Nicholls (---)

4--Amanda Perrett (1/24 - winner at 9/1)

4--Sir Michael Stoute (8/1-9/2-2/1*-13/8*)

3--Charlie Appleby (5/16 - winners at 5/1-9/2-4/1-11/4-11/8*)

3--Andrew Balding (8/1-4/1-5/2*)

3--Clive Cox (1/8 - winner at 8/1)

3--Michael Easterby (0/3)

3--William Haggas (0/8)

3--Paul Midgley (---)

3--Jamie Osborne (0/5)

3--Saeed Bin Suroor (1/8 - winner at 11/2)

2--Michael Appleby (---)

2--David Barron (---)

2--Mick Channon (4/28 - winners at 16/1-7/2*-5/2*-9/4*)

2--Robert Cowell (0/1)

2--David Evans (0/13)

2--Eve Johnson Houghton (0/8)

2--Hugo Palmer (0/9)

2--Kevin Ryan (1/3 - winner at 13/2)

2--Marcus Tregoning (1/8 - winner at 5/1)

2--Ed Walker (0/1)

2--Stuart Williams (0/6)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

125 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year: 

Doncaster: £116.60 - 8 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced - Richard Hannon (12/1 double twelve months ago - 2 runners this year)

Hamilton: £42.60 - 6 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced - Eric Alston (326/1 treble last year - 2 runners at the track on Saturday)

Lingfield (Turf): £193.30 - 8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced

Newmarket: £175.70 - 7 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced

Thirsk: £563.20 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced - Kevin Ryan (27/1 double last year - 4 runners at the venue on Saturday)

 

Goodwood overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant event at 4.20 - Stats offered before Friday's sport was contested:

3/31--Richard Fahey (Abiento)

1/22--Clive Cox (Black Trilby)

2/8--Hugo Palmer (Colibri)

14/100--Richard Hannon (Ghayyar)

0/11--David Evans (Herm)

2/26--Marcus Tregoning (Imphal & Star Stream)

2/10--William Haggas (Lockheed)

3/30--Andrew Balding (Manolito De Madrid)

2/17--Eve Johnson Houghton (On To Victory)

1/16--Michael Bell (Ray's The Money)

0/15--Sylvester Kirk (Syncopation)

0/3--Luke Dace (The Secrets Out)

No runners--Mark Hoad (Ultimat Power)

 

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