NEWMARKET - JULY 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £222.00 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (2.15): 7 (Pichola Dance) & 3 (Dabyah)
Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Spiritous) & 4 (Bacchus)
Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Perkunas) & 4 (Whitman)
Leg 4 (4.00): 9 (War Decree), 1 (Bin Battuta) & 6 (Mr Scaramanga)
Leg 5 (4.35): 18 (Quiet Refelction), 14 (Twilight Son) & 16 (Air Force Blue)
Leg 6 (5.10): 10 (Golden Empire), 7 (Tanzeel), 3 (Heaven's Guest) & 12 (Farlow)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page - lots of 2YO info!
2.15: My best news revolves around PICHOLA DANCE who trainer Roger Varian describes as "well made", a comment that he mad some months ago with a glimmer of a glint in his eye during a stable visit. This is obviously a dangerous race with which to 'boast confidence' but that said, these rivals have failed to start the jungle drums beating in this part of the world, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be John Gosden's Sepoy filly Dabyah.
Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals.
2.50: Six of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones in this two-year-old handicap contest, albeit I am little hesitant in dismissing the chance of SHOWDANCE KID from the 'inferior' sector of the weights. Further up the list, I am inclined to side with SPIRITOUS and BACCHUS in what appears to be a typically difficult two-year-old handicap to assess, especially this side of midnight.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 13 market leaders have reached the frame (six winners) in the second event on the card. Although favourites have won six of the 11 renewals to date, five of the last nine gold medallists were returned at 16/1-12/1-8/1-8/1-11/2.
Record of the course winner in the second contest:
1/1--Spiritous (good to soft)
3.25: Nine of the last ten winners have carried 9-1 or more and it's worth noting that just twelve 'qualifiers' have run in total via the last three contests to produce decent priced winners at 9/1, 8/1 & 11/2. There are only four horses to choose from this time around, with the pin coming down on the side of PERKUNAS, WHITMAN and PALAWAN, the trio being listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed during the last eighteen years, whilst eleven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the third race:
1/1--Silent Attack (soft)
1/1--Hornsby (good to firm)
4.00: 'Team Hannon' have saddled five of the last 15 winners of this race which is named after the 1983 July Stakes winner Superlative. Richard saddles MR SCARAMANGA this time around, albeit there are really dangerous opponents here in WAR DECREE and BIN BATTUTA to name but two rivals. SOUTH SEAS was a good winner for yours truly at Windsor the other week, though there was plenty of moisture in the ground that day. I will have to see what the weather decides to do on Saturday though for the time being, Andrew Balding's raider is offered up as the overnight reserve.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 favourites have claimed win and place positions during the study period, statistics which include seven winners.
4.35: I expect we will receive all the media hype nonsense about this Group 1 event but let’s get real shall we, the sprinters over the last few years have left a lot to be desired. For the last two years I have suggested that without wishing to upset connections, I would compare market leaders to top graders at the White City all those (halcyon) years ago, whilst other supposed ‘top notchers’ were A3/A4 types. Tough talk I know but in yesteryear, horses fancied for this race did not beat each other (like graders at a greyhound stadium) in turn, as seems to have been the case of late. That said, I readily admit that looks more like the real deal and I am hoping the the rain stays away to see if a genuine 'champion' can emerge. A trio of three-year-olds have won during the last six renewals and I fancy QUIET REFLECTION to go close (possibly alongside AIR FORCE BLUE), with the older horses likely to be led home by Henry Candy's pair LIMATO and TWILIGHT SON.
Favourite factor: Ten of the last 14 favourites have finished out of the frame, whilst four favourites have won during the last 14 years, offering strength to my argument regarding the calibre of contenders in recent years.
Record of course winners:
1/3--Eastern Impact (good to soft)
1/3--Magical Memory (good to soft)
5.10: The last seven (and ten of the last twelve) winners carried a minimum weight of 9-1 to victory, as have 17 of the last 19 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions. Although this scenario ‘only‘ eliminates seven (possibly nine via claims) of the 20 declarations, all assistance is required in trying to track down the winner of the Bunbury Cup, as ever was the case. Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last five winners, the same ratio as five-year-olds who have 'dominated' of late. My quartet against the field take into account the fact and stats, with TANZEEL, GLORIOUS EMPIRE, HEAVENLY GUEST and FARLOW in the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last twelve favourites have been beaten (the race being won by horses returned in double figures on nine occasions), whilst only seven of the twenty market leaders have reached the frame.
Record of the course winners in the Bunbury Cup:
1/3--Buckstay (good to firm)
2/3--Heaven's Guest (good to soft & good to firm)
1/3--Bossy Guest (good to firm)
1/3--Dinkum Diamond (good to firm)
2/4--Majestic Moon (2 x good to firm)
2/2--Glorious Empire (2 x soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday (stats offered before Friday's sport was contested):
6--John Gosden (2/18 at Newmarket this season - winners at 4/1 & 7/4*)
6--Charlie Hills (1/11 - winner at 3/1*)
5--Richard Fahey (0/3)
5--Richard Hannon (3/28 - winners at 8/1-3/1*-11/4*)
4--Charlie Appleby (0/5)
3--Ralph Beckett (1/6 - winner at 11/4*)
3--Henry Candy (0/7)
3--Mark Johnston (2/8 - winners at 3/1* & 11/8*)
3--Aidan O'Brien (1/3 - winner at 9/2)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/10 - winners at 11/2-2/1*-2/1**)
2--Michael Appleby (2/5 - winners at 8/1 & 9/4*)
2--Marco Botti (1/3 - winner at 8/1)
2--Karl Burke (2/5 - winners at 5/1 & 11/4)
2--Mick Channon (0/5)
2--Peter Chapple-Hyam (0/1)
2--Luca Cumani (0/3)
2--Brian Meehan (0/2)
2--Hugo Palmer (1/2 - winner at 7/2*)
2--James Tate (1/4 - winner at 14/1)
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
89 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ascot: £86.80 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
Chester: £212.90 - 7 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced
Hamilton: £485.70 - 7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced
Salisbury: £11.40 - 6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 placed
York: £134.90 - 7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced
Newmarket overview - Five year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events:
0/24--Ralph Beckett (Amabilis)
5/42-Ed Dunlop (Carol)
12/61--John Gosden (Dabyah & Mary Anne Evans)
1/33--Luca Cumnai (Dubara)
0/5--David Lanigan (Excellent Sunset)
1/21--Roger Varian (Pichola Dance)
6/53--Charlie Hills (Sabsini & Whispered Promise)
20/112--Richard Hannon (Varun's Bride)
0/25--Ralph Beckett (Pleaseletmewin)
20/112--Richard Hannon (Kreb's Cycle)
12/61--John Gosden (Spiritous)
4/47--Brian Meehan (Bacchus)
8/59--Mark Johnston (Mistime)
No runners--Roger Teal (High Acclaim)
5/46--Mick Channon (Ingleby Mackenzie)
2/10--Karl Burke (Shoedance Kid)
0/3--Sylvester Kirk (Challow)
0/12--Stan Moore (Quandary Peak)
14/55--Saeed Bin Suroor (Bin Battuta)
13/66--Charlie Appleby (Boynton)
12/61--John Gosden (Cunco)
2/16--Hugo Palmer (Hyperfocus)
4/15--Jeremy Noseda (Monks Stand)
20/112--Richard Hannon (Mr Scaramanga)
1/24--Andrew Balding (South Seas)
0/2--Julia Feilden (Spirit Of Sarwan)
1/8--Aidan O'Brien (War Decree)
8/59--Mark Johnston (White Tower)