SANDOWN – JUNE 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £34.10 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Majdool) & 6 (Short Work)
Leg 2 (2.10): 3 (High Draw), 5 (Cosmeapolitan) & 1 (Mikmak)
Leg 3 (2.45): 5 (Mutamakkin), 10 (Laidback Romeo) & 6 (Czech It Out)
Leg 4 (3.20): 6 (Easton Angel) & 2 (Ornate)
Leg 5 (3.55): 1 (Tagula Night) & 6 (Ejbaar)
Leg 6 (4.30): 14 (Madame Chow), 3 (Autocratic) & 6 (Makzeem)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: Seven of the ten winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which brings MAJDOOL and ARAB POET into the equation though on this occasion, I find myself opposing 'my anorak tendency' with good to soft winner SHORT WORK running off 8-12. Ralph Beckett can do little wrong at this moment in time and if the stats go base over apex here, Fran Berry's mount is the one that I would want to be on, especially with showers on the radar.
Favourite factor: Ten of the eleven favourites have been beaten, with favourites claiming five toteplacepot position between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 12/1, whilst 18 of the 32 horses (56.3%) to have claimed toteplacepot positions have started at odds of 13/2 or less.
2.10: Nine of the last twelve winners carried a minimum burden of nine stones, whilst as at all meetings on Saturday, you should check out how much rain has fallen overnight before investing heavily on Saturday. I took the weather forecasters at their word for Thursday overnight/Friday morning when the 'experts' suggested that there would be rain just about everywhere. I could not detect a drop as the cameras homed in on our favourite sport the length and breadth of the land whereby you should tread carefully. The top six (of eleven in total) appear to have an edge here, as similar weight stats are in evidence here as was the case in the opening contest. Seven of the ten winners have carried nine stones or more, whereby my short listed trio consists of HIGH DRAW, COSMEAPOLITAN and MIKMAK who could prove very interesting if plenty of rain fell overnight/leading up to flag fall..
Favourite factor: Just one favourite has won during the last sixteen years, whilst seven of the seventeen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
2.45: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the twelve toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three of the four winners at 11/1-5/1-9/2*. Four-year-old MUTAMAKKIN will be difficult to kick out of the frame I'll wager, with connections possibly having most to fear from the likes of fellow vintage raiders LAIDBACK ROMEO, and FRANKLIN D. If the four-year-olds are to be beaten on this occasion, CZECH IT OUT could prove to be the joker in the pack, with Amanda Perrett's six-year-old likely to outrun his odds.
Favourite factor: All three market leaders had missed out on toteplacepot positions, before last year's 9/2 market leader duly obliged. For the record, that winner was Basem who I would give a give each way chance to in the Royal Hunt Cup next week, if he can make it into the handicap.
Record of course winners in the third event:
1/1--Franklin D (good to firm)
1/5--Secret Art (good)
1/5--Fire Ship (soft)
3.20: The ‘Scurry Stakes’ has the look of a race which is designed to relieve punters of as much cash as possible before they have a chance of biting back at Royal Ascot. That argument has lost momentum however as the biggest priced winner was returned at just 10/1 during the last twelve years. Eight of the last eleven winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less. The terms and conditions of this Listed event appear to favour EASTON ANGEL and Michael Dods will be hoping that the ground remains on the firm side on Saturday for this individual, before the heavens open for Mecca's Angel at Royal Ascot next week. ORNATE and SOAPY AITKEN might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Six market leaders have been successful via eleven renewals, though three of the other five market leaders finished out of the frame.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/1--Willietheconqueror (good to soft)
3.55: This was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded it as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster. The bottom three horses can be eliminated (along with another via a jockey claim) if you take the weight stats seriously as all ten winners have been burdened with a minimum of 8-11 thus far. TAGULA NIGHT represents Dean Ivory whose team are in fine form, whilst EJBAAR and MAJOR PUSEY are the two youngest (four-year-old) horses in the line up who could have further improvement forthcoming.
Favourite factor: Five of the last ten favourites have finished in the frame, including last year’s successful (5/2) market leader.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
3/8--Tagula Night (3 x good)
1/2--Captain Bob (good)
4/13--Rocket Bob (3 x good & 1 x good to soft)
4.30: The last thirteen winners of this event were returned at odds of 8/1 or less and many punters will latch on to beaten favourite AUTOCRATIC who will be fancied to go one better for the Sir Michael Stoute/Ryan Moore bandwagon. That said, I am interested in MADAME CHOW in receipt of five pounds from the colt, especially as Ralph Beckett was fullsome in his praise for the filly before she had run last year. We had to wait until last month to see her on the racecourse as it happens and there was plenty to like about her effort at Sandown. MAKZEEM could reward each way/Placepot investors at an each way price.
Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a successful favourite was registered before the 5/6 market leader came good on behalf of the punters two years ago. That said, the last two contests have reverted to type.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Saturday:
4--Ralph Beckett (5/50 at Sandown during the last five years before Friday's sport was contested - 2016 ratio: 1/3)
4--Mick Channon (9/84 - 1/6)
4--William Knight (2/35 - 0/4)
4--Roger Varian (11/69 - 1/7)
3--Marco Botti (4/35 - 0/2)
3--Clive Cox (9/75 - 2/3)
3--Mark Johnston (7/88 - 0/7)
3--William Muir (6/31 - 1/3)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (2/8)
2--Andrew Balding (20/158 - 0/6)
2--Karl Burke (5/26 - 1/1)
2--Roger Charlton (8/42 - 1/3)
2--Robert Cowell (2/26 - 1st runners)
2--Luca Cumani (3/44 - 1st runners)
2--John Gosden (30/136 - 1/10)
2--Alan King (1/13 - 1/3)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £140.20 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
Chester: £266.90 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Hexham: £670.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Leicester: 314.70 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)
Lingfield: £61.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Musselburgh: £25.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
York: £2,504.40 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)