SANDOWN – JUNE 17
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £69.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Oriental Romance), 9 (Rio Ronaldo) & 1 (Musical Comedy)
Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Equimou), 5 (Fashion Queen) & 3 (Copper Knight)
Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Love Dreams) & 1 (Battered)
Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Taurean Star), 2 (Sir Roderic) & 3 (Greenside)
Leg 5 (4.25): 4 (Intrepidly), 2 (Comedy School) & 5 (War Chief)
Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Bristol Missle) & 7 (Musaahim)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: This meeting was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded it as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster. The bottom three horses (of twelve in total) can be eliminated if you take the weight stats seriously as all eleven winners have been burdened with a minimum of 8-11 thus far. It might seem obvious to suggest that the handicapper could have caught up with ORIENTAL ROMANCE via his two wins at Pontefract earlier in the season. That said, James Given’s raider is only three pounds higher than the latest of those victories under fast conditions and with the trainer having won with four of his last thirteen runners, I will take the chance that Joe Doyle’s mount could outrun his odds. Mike Murphy’s pair RIO RONALDO and MUSICAL COMEDY are taken as the main dangers.
Favourite factor: Six of the last eleven favourites have finished in the frame, including the successful (5/2) market leader in 2015.
Record of course winners in the opening race:
1/4—Secret Asset (good to firm)
2.40: The ‘Scurry Stakes’ has the look of a race which is designed to relieve punters of as much cash as possible before they have a chance of biting back at Royal Ascot. That argument has lost momentum however as the biggest priced winner was returned at just 10/1 during the last twelve years. Nine of the last twelve winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less for good measure. The terms and conditions of this Listed event appears to favour two recent scorers in EQIMOU and FASHION QUEEN, with hat trick seeker COPPER KNIGHT very much respected at one and the same time. Ardad appears to have something to prove after his seasonal debut effort, especially under a five pound penalty for winning the Group 2 ‘Flying Childers’ last back end.
Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have been successful via twelve renewals, though three of the other five market leaders finished out of the frame.
3.15: Seven of the last eleven winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which brings BATTERED and LOVE DREAMS strongly into the equation. Both horses have won under these (fast) conditions, though I might have listed the pair the wrong way around the more I look at the race. Indeed, Mark Johnston (LOVE DREAMS) might have found a realistic (decent) target here with BATTERED having been burdened with a nine pound penalty. That said, Mark’s Dream Ahead colt has been off the track for a year whereby there may not be too much daylight between the pair at the jamstick. Akhlaaq looks booked for third spot from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Eleven of the twelve favourites have been beaten, with favourites claiming five toteplacepot position between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 25/1 last year, whilst 19 of the 35 horses (54.2%) to have claimed toteplacepot positions have started at odds of 13/2 or less.
3.50: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the fifteen available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include four of the five winners at 11/1-5/1-9/2*-11/4*. Four-year-old raiders TAUREAN STAR and SIR RODERIC may not jump off the page via the form book, but both respective trainers (Michael Bell and Rod Millman) have their horses in fine fettle at this moment in time. I appreciate that many of you will support GREENSIDE and while I believe that my pair represent better value for money on this occasion, I will add Ryan Moore’ s mount into my Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: All three market leaders had missed out on toteplacepot positions, before the 2015 market leader duly obliged at 9/2. Last year’s market leader narrowed the gap between punters and the ‘aliens’ when scoring at 11/4.
Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
2/5—Laidback Romeo (2 x good to firm)
2/3—Sir Roderic (good & good to soft)
4.25: Ten of the last thirteen winners carried a minimum burden of 8-13, whilst top trainers tend to secure this prize in no uncertain terms. Jeremy Noseda’s Kempton winner INTREPIDLY is the first name on the team sheet accordingly, with WAR CHIEF and COMEDY SCHOOL also included in the short list.
Favourite factor: Just one favourite has won during the last seventeen years, whilst eight of the twenty market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
5.00: The last fourteen winners of this event were returned at odds of 8/1 or less and many punters will latch on to BRISTOL MISSILE, though I will only be adding Richard Hannon’s Kitten’s Joy colt into the Placepot mix, especially with two Hamdan Al Maktoum representatives having been declared. I’m inclined to fancy MUSAAHIM over Munthany, chiefly because of the fine from of Roger Varian’s inmates just now.
Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a successful favourite was registered before the 5/6 market leader came good on behalf of the punters three years ago. That said, recent contests have reverted to type.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday:
3 runners—Charlie Hills (5/1 winner at this corresponding meeting during the last five years)
2—Clive Cox (12/1 winner)
2—John Gosden (One winner at 11/4* during the last five years)
2—William Haggas (15/2)
2—Mark Johnston (One winner at 8/1 winner during the last five years)
+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
68 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £27.70 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Hexham: £61.80 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Leicester: £122.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Lingfield: £158.00 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)
Musselburgh: £348.80 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
York: £604.40 (7 favourites - 1 winner & 6 unplaced)