ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 18
Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last five years:
2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £1,207.90
31 favourites - 10 winners - 8 placed - 13 unplaced
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 3 (Cunco), 2 (Churchill) & 7 (Frankuus)
Leg 2 (3.05): 6 (Best Of Times), 12 (Oceanographer) & 14 (Second Wave)
Leg 3 (3.40): 3 (Dartmouth) & 5 (Exosphere)
Leg 4 (4.20): 4 (Magical Memory) & 10 (Undrafted)
Leg 5 (5.00): 20 (Brando), 19 (The Happy Prince), 26 (Spring Loaded) & 17 (Jack Dexter)
Leg 6 (5.35): 2 (Amour de Nuit), 10 (Pinzolo) & 9 (Grumeti)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Please scroll down to the foot of the column for overviews:
2.30: Five years have slipped by since 'Team Hannon' saddled successive victories whereby their three runners will have been especially prepared to end the 'drought'. The pick of the trio from my viewpoint is ADMIRALTY ARCH, as this stoutely bred juvenile did well to score over six furlongs on his second start at York, having contested a race overseas on his debut. John Gosden tends to target two-year-old races at Royal Ascot sparingly and having won this race three times in the past, I believe we can expect a bold showing from CUNCO. Mark Johnston's Frankel representative FRANKUUS is another one to throw into the overnight mix alongside CHURCHILL who will no doubt come on a ton for his first day at school effort at Curragh.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 17 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with six winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.
3.05: Four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 16 renewals of this Class 1 handicap contest whilst 15 of those winners carried weights of 9-5 or less during the study period. Putting the stats and facts together, I expect the trends to continue via the likes of BEST OF TIMES, MALEFICENT QUEEN and Charlie Apple's pair OCEANOGRAPHY and SECOND WAVE. The quartet are listed in marginal order of preference, in what appears to a lively and competitive renewal. Charlie's pair have shown good form on all weather courses but winners under those conditions seemingly run well at Ascot, the racecourse basically being 'sand based'.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty one market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four successful clear market leaders and one joint favourite.
3.40: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled five of the last ten winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last eight contests, Michael's par of vintage representatives DARTMOUTH and EXOSPHERE stand out from the crowd. I can say that with a fair amount of confidence, having nominated last year's successful 12/1 chance Snow Sky to get the better of more fancied contenders from the yard. EAGLE TOP found one of the three Stoute horses too good for him in the race last year, a result which could be repeated here, though I am not splitting Sir Michael's pair this side of midnight. The reserve nomination is awarded to HIGHLAND REEL.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 18 years, whilst 12 of the last 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
4.20: Eight of the last sixteen winners had previously won or been placed in Royal Ascot events, whilst 13 of the last 16 gold medallists had won Group or Listed events over the six furlong trip en route to success in this contest. Last year's winner UNDRAFTED returns to defend his crown, albeit the ground will be a deal slower than was the case twelve months ago, though the ground is slowly drying out. UNDRAFTED is not (seemingly) unduly taxed here relating to the opposition, the pick of which might prove to be MAGICAL MEMORY and GOLD FUN in what can only be described as a disappointing contest by Group 1 standards. That said, there is no knowing just how much untapped potential lies under the saddle-cloth of MAGICAL MEMORY, whereby the Charlie Hills raiser could yet be anything.
Favourite factor: 16 of the last 19 favourites have been beaten, whilst 11 of the last 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
5.00: The four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last seventeen years, whilst five-year-olds have won nine times during the last eighteen renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘. Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 20 of the last 36 horses to have finished in the frame. Last year's 10/1 winner Interception was among the quartet I basically offered against the field and hoping to name the gold medallist again, I will opt for BRANDO, THE HAPPY PRINCE, SPRING LOADED and OUTBACK TRAVELLER this time around. If there is one horse that could prove to be the joker in the pack given old from , JACK DEXTER has to be the call at around the 33/1 mark. Contesting a handicap again following five successive Listed/Group races, Jim Goldie has booked the services of Fran Berry which is another positive sign, the first occasion that I can find the pair teaming up together.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last twenty market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders.
5.35: For the fourth successive season, no horse comes here on the back of an Ascot Stakes effort earlier in the week which is quite an unusual scenario. Willie Mullins saddles two nine-year-olds and as much as both Simenon (a previous winner of this race) and Clondaw Warrior should figure prominently, it would be a little disappointing if younger horses failed to gain the day. The pick of the 'junior' runners might prove to be AMOUR DE NUIT, COMMISIONED and PINZOLO. If the meeting ends with a surprise winner, GRUMETI could be considered as the each way play in the contest, albeit previous winner Oriental Fox holds Alan King's mount on various form lines. That said, bookmakers would not exist if this was an exact science.
Favourite factor: Five of the last sixteen favourites have prevailed, with another five market leaders finishing in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Royal Ascot card on Saturday:
6--Richard Hannon (1/29 at Ascot this season - before Friday's sport was contested)
5--Charlie Appleby (2/17)
5--Mark Johnston (1/16)
4--Aidan O'Brien (3/13)
3--Andrew Balding (0/9)
3--Ralph Beckett (0/5)
3--Richard Fahey (1/9)
3--John Gosden (3/21)
3--Charlie Hills (0/8)
3--Willie Mullins (0/3)
3--David O'Meara (0/10)
2--Henry Candy (0/2)
2--Robert Cowell (1/3)
2--Keith Dalgleish (1/4)
2--Paul D'Arcy (---)
2--David Evans (0/5)
2--James Fanshawe (0/5)
2--Ed de Giles (0/1)
2--Jim Goldie (0/2)
2--William Haggas (0/11)
2--Alan King (1/1)
2--William Knight (0/3)
2--David Lanigan (0/1)
2--John Ryan (0/6)
2--Sir Michael Stoute (1/15)
2--Saeed Bin Suroor (2/16)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
102 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £3,859.30 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced
Haydock: £277.80 - 6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced
Lingfield: £18.00 - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced
Newmarket (July course): £25.80 - 7 runners - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced
Redcar: £257.80 - 6 runners - 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Royal Ascot overview (relating to the Cheham Stakes at 2.30):
Represented trainers this year who have saddled winners of the race during the last five years:
John Gosden (10/1) - Cunco - 3 winners for John in the race in total down the years
Aidan O'Brien (5/2*) - Churchill - Aidan has won two renewals to date