ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 24
Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years:
2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)
2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £1,186.63
39 favourites - 11 winners - 10 placed - 18 unplaced
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 16 (September) & 8 (Masar)
Leg 2 (3.05): 6 (Khairaat), 7 (Kidmenever) & 13 (Dragon Mall)
Leg 3 (3.40): 14 (Wings Of Desire), 1 (Across The Stars) & 7 (Idaho)
Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Limato), 9 (Magical Memory) & 1 (Aclaim)
Leg 5 (5.00): 16 (Projection), 24 (Muntadab) & 20 (Normandy Berriere)
Leg 6 (5.35): 13 (Thomas Hobson), 12 (Qewy) & 19 (US Army Ranger)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Please scroll down to the foot of the column for overviews:
2.30: Churchill became Aidan O’Brien’s third winner of this race last year and there appears to be plenty of confidence behind SEPTEMBER who attempts to become the trainer’s fifth winner of the week. “As my memory rests but never forgets what I have lost” – are lyrics from Green Day’s massive hit When September Ends some years ago, words which will hopefully not come back to haunt investors who back the projected favourite in the opening event. In case you believe the link to be spurious in the extreme, it’s worth noting that Bach was Aidan’s first winner of the ‘Chesham’ back in 1999. Different music of course, but you take the point, or ditch it I guess! Upwards and onward by suggesting that MASAR will offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, especially with no Wesley Ward raider to consider in a juvenile contest for a change. Please don’t tell me that I’m beginning to sound like ‘Thommo’!
Favourite factor: 13 of the last 18 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with seven winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.
3.05: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17 renewals of this Class 1 handicap contest whilst 16 of those winners carried weights of 9-5 or less during the study period. Putting the stats and facts together, I expect the trends to continue via the likes of KHAIRAAT, KIDMENEVER and DRAGON MALL. KHAIRAAT is Sir Michael Stoute’s eleventh runner this week as the trainer still searches for the gold medallist which will make him the trainer with the most victories achieved at Royal Ascot, taking him one clear of Sir Henry Cecil who also saddled 76 winners. That said, Charlie Appleby (KIDMENEVER) did us a great favour with the 20/1 winner in the finale on Friday, whilst Josephine Gordon (DRAGON MALL) could grab all the headlines on the day if she becomes the first lady to ride a winner at the royal meeting since Gay Kelleway achieved the feat thirty years ago.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four successful clear market leaders and one joint favourite.
3.40: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last eleven winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last nine contests, Michael's ‘second string’ ACROSS THE STARS might be the one to be on, with Dartmouth (arguably) preferring softer conditions. I selected Dartmouth (10/1 winner) twelve months ago ahead of his stable companion who let the side down badly as a 6/4 beaten favourite. Michael comes to the gig on a four-timer, with connections probably having most to fear from John Gosden’s dark horse WINGS OF DESIRE and IDAHO.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the Harwicke Stakes:
1/1—Across The Stars (good to soft)
1/2—Arthenus (good to soft)
2/5—Dartmouth (Good to soft & good to firm)
1/2—My Dream Boat (good to soft)
4.20: Eight of the last 17 winners had previously won or been placed in Royal Ascot events, whilst 14 of the last 17 gold medallists had won Group or Listed events over the six furlong trip en route to success in this contest.
Win, lose or draw, it will be interesting to see how Ryan Moore rates LIMATO in the aftermath of this contest, especially as the official assessor has Henry Candy’s raider ahead of Caravaggio at the time of writing! Excuses have been made for the projected favourite for one reason or another but with ideal conditions in his favour, LIMATO will have to win this in the style of a good horse if he is to remain on a higher mark that yesterday’s emphatic speedster. MAGICAL MEMORY was the beaten favourite in this event twelve months ago but ‘Frankie’ could miss out on another winner this week if Charlie Hills has the horse cherry ripe. The pick of the outsiders according to the gospel of yours truly could prove to be ACLAIM, though an additional hundred yards or so would have been ideal. 28/1 would have been extremely tempting given that scenario.
Favourite factor: 17of the last 20 favourites have been beaten, whilst 11 of the last 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes:
1/1—Aclaim (good to firm)
1/5—Growl (good to firm)
2/4—Librisa Breeze (good to firm & soft)
1/2—Limato (good to firm)
2/4—The Tim Man (2 x good)
5.00: The four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last eighteen years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last nineteen renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘. Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 23 of the last 40 horses to have finished in the frame. I have mentioned the last two 10/1 winners via my short list, though this time I am having to reduce the number in my Placepot permutation to three, given that other races on the card are also competitive this year. Placepot offering via the stats: PROJECTION, MUNTADAB and NORMANDY BARRIERE. Reserve nominations: SQUATS and STEADY PACE.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty two market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.
Record of the course winners in the Wokingham Stakes:
1/9—Squats (good to firm)
1/3—Eastern Impact (good)
2/8—Outback raveller (good & good to soft)
1/3—Steady Pace (good to firm)
2/5—Normandy Barriere (2 x good to firm)
5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract! The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who destroyed the Ascot Stakes field on Tuesday, with Ryan Moore exuding so much confidence from the saddle when coming from well off the pace, striding six lengths clear of his rivals in the style of a horse that will relish this trip. How much that victory will have taken out of the Willie Mullins raider remains to be seen however. I can see the merit of backing Martin Harley’s mount obviously, though I am less convinced about his Placepot chance if Martin believes him to be beaten some way from home. The jockey could hardly be castigated for easing the horse up if his winning chance has gone after his fine effort earlier in the week. That scenario assures yours truly that QEWY should be added into thePlacepot equaltion, arguably alongside WINNING STORY. Then again, Ryan Moore rides US ARMY RANGER for Aidan O’Brien. It’s interesting to note with just two other runners on the card, Aidan is happy to stay on for the finale.
Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/6—Oreintal Fox (good to firm)
1/3—Big Thunder (good to firm)
1/2—Excellent Result (good)
1/1—Thomas Hobson (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more) on the Royal Ascot card on Saturday followed by their ratios at the course this week:
5 runners—Charlie Appleby (2/18)
5—John Gosden (2/26)
5—William Haggas (0/12)
5—David O’Meara (0/5)
4—Andrew Balding (0/5)
4—Saeed Bin Suroor (1/11)
3—Ralph Beckett (0/8)
3—Mick Channon (0/5)
3—Roger Charlton (1/5)
3—Richard Fahey (1/13)
3—Richard Hannon (1/15)
3—Charlie Hills (0/9)
3—Aidan O’Brien (4/33)
3—David Simcock (1/6)
3—Sir Michael Stoute (0/10)
3—Roger Varian (0/13)
113 runners at the time of writing
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £238.60 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced
Haydock: £127.60 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £28.10 6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced
Newmarket (July course): £24.70 - 7 runners - 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced
Redcar: £3,710.90 – 6 favourites - 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced