Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Saturday June 3rd

EPSOM – JUNE 3 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years at Epsom on Derby Day:

2016: £1,364.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £4,314.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £18.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

2013: £1,135.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £123.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £304.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,209.88 - 39 favourites - 11 winners - 12 placed - 16 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Tartini) & 4 (Drochaid)

Leg 2 (2.35): 7 (Laugh Aloud) & 1 (Czabo)

Leg 3 (3.10): 6 (Here Comes When), 4 (Folkswood) & 8 (Oh This Is Us)

Leg 4 (3.45): 18 (Dark Shot), 10 (El Astronaute), 13 (Exceed The Limit), 12 (Majestic Hero) & 4 (Boom The Groom)

Leg 5 (4.30): 4 (Cliffs Of Moher), 5 (Cracksman), 3 (Capri) & 11 (Khalidi)

Leg 6 (5.15): 6 (Gawdawpalin) & 4 (Shraaoh)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: As an additional guide for toteplacepot enthusiasts on Derby Day, I can reveal that the last thirteen Derby cards at Epsom have produced an average Placepot dividend of £856.74.  88 favourites have emerged via the 78 races resulting in the following Placepot favourite stats: 21 winners--27 placed--40 unplaced.  Nine of the last ten winners of the opening event on the card have carried weights of 9-2 or less, stats which led me to suggest that

Goodwood Zodiac would outrun his price last year before William Knight’s raider finished second at 33/1.  TARTINI was only a 4/1 chance to beat Cracksman in the Derby Trial here in April and though unsuccessful that day, John Gosden’s raider is fancied to repay losses in this grade/company.  DROCHAID and EMENEM are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  13 of the 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  Eight renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – most recent result listed first):

14-15-3 (15 ran-food to soft)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)

6-1-5 (12 ran-good)

10-1-2 (14 ran-good)

8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9 (11 ran-good)

1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)

11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)

1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals of this contest and with six of the eleven declarations representing the vintage, the trend could well be extended. The pick of the sextet has to be LAUGH ALOUD from my viewpoint, John Gosden’s recent Goodwood winner having blown away a Listed field in facile fashion under fast conditions.  Raised into Group 3 territory here, LAUGH ALOUD should take the hike in her stride having won three of her last five assignments in the style of a progressive filly in the making.  Mick Channon has won this event three times and his pair CZABO and last year’s winner EPSOM ICON might chase LAUGH ALOUD home.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last fourteen favourites have prevailed as have nine of the latest nineteen market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

4-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

1-4-8 (9 ran-good)

6-2-3 (10 ran-good)

1-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)

5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-8-7 (8 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-good)

6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-2-3 (10 ran-good)

4 (3 ran-good)

10-1-5 (8 ran-good)

4-5-1 (8 ran-good)

6-5 (6 ran-soft)

2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

 

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (Quadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Oaks day at Epsom during the last 13 years paid £84.08.  54 favourites emerged, resulting in 18 winners, 13 were placed, 22 unplaced and one non-runner.  Followers of yours truly were in clover when HERE COMES WHEN scored at 10/1 at York the last day, having been advised to cash in on the 16/1 which was available earlier in the day.  Unplaced on his only start here at Epsom, my main worry concerns this venue because let’s face it, not every thoroughbred acts around the twists and trends, notwithstanding the camber at the business end of proceedings.  FOLKSWOOD is feared most, with OH THIS IS US also expected to figure prominently.

Favourite factor: 15 of the last 19 winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  Only four of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

1-11 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-1 (7 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good)

7-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4 (6 ran-good)

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9 (9 ran-good)

4-8-7 (8 ran-good)

5-8-4 (8 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (7 ran-good)

3-1-10 (11 ran-good)

9-11-3 (10 ran-good)

6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

4-2 (6 ran-good)

3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

 

3.45: I tend to offer draw statistics in big races where possible for readers to determine where potential advantages lie, whether or not the powers that be have interfered with stall positions in recent years!  I leave it to readers to work out if there is any advantage to home in on. I have never been a 'sit on the fence' man like some 'media experts' who forever drone on about my type of work being futile given that it all depends on where the 'pace in the race' is coming from.  I think even 'they' will admit that in the Epsom Dash, pace is everywhere to be seen!  Six-year-olds have secured five of the last 12 renewals, whilst nine of the last eleven gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Sporadic thunderstorms could break out late doors on Friday (maybe overnight) whereby high numbers cannot be ruled out, especially if you take a look at last year’s details below. My ‘short list’ consists of DARK SHOT (drawn 10/20), EL ASTRONAUTE (7), EXCEED THE LIMIT (17) and MAJESTIC HERO (2) with which to go to war against the old enemy.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to BOOM THE GROOM (18).

Favourite factor: Only four of the last eighteen favourites have finished in the frame.  Only one (5/1) market leader prevailed during the last decade during which time, the average price of the winner was 10/1.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

17-19-20-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

1-7-18-5 (20 ran-good to firm)

Your first 30 days for just £1

14-17-12-13 (19 ran-good)

19-1-5-13 (17 ran-good)

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)

8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)

15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)

17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)

8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-11-8 (11 ran—good)

1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)

12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)

3-1-12 (12 ran—good)

11-2-9 (11 ran—good)

10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

 

4.30: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners and eleven placed horses in the Derby during the last eighteen years and with six of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1 and 14/1, few (if any) of his runners should be ignored.  CLIFFS of MOHER appears to be the main hope for the team in what looks to a wide open renewal.  York's Dante Stakes is far and away the best prep race these days however, though it is worth mentioning that as far as I can recall, only Workforce has won this 'Blue Riband' having been beaten on the Knavesmire in the trial. That probably rules Benbati and Rekindling out of the equation, with course winner CRACKSMAN regarded as the main danger to Ryan Moore’s mount.  KHALIDI could improve again for a step up in trip, whilst other each way options include CAPRI and BEST SOLUTION.

Favourite factor: The last 18 winners of the Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include seven favourites of one sort or another.  Ten of the last fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Camelot was the first odds on favourite to win the Epsom Derby five years ago since Shergar obliged back in 1989 and the one thing we know about Saturday's race for sure, is that there will not be an odds on chance this season!

Draw factor:

9-15-8 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-2-11 (16 ran-good)

10-5-11 (12 ran-good)

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-10-2 (12 ran-good)

3-14-10 (16 ran-good)

14-8-2 (17 ran-good)

10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-12-4 (13 ran-good)

6-11-3 (14 ran-good)

4-16-8 (20 ran-good)

9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)

10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10 (15 ran-good)

1-5-17 (16 ran-good)

14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

 

5.15: Four-year-olds have claimed nine of the last nineteen renewals including eight of the last thirteen (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last eight years - first, second and fourth three years ago). I am pinning my hopes on SHRAAOH (drawn 2/13) and GAWDAWPALIN (5) this time around.  That said, I have probably listed the pair the wrong way around as the latter named raider won on the corresponding card last year. The very best of luck with all your bets on Derby Day, hoping that the weather stays dry (aside from personal bias towards some horses) for those braving the elements on the Downs this year.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won the Placepot finale during the past nineteen years, whilst just five of the other eighteen market leaders have additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (twelve furlongs):

16-14-17-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

13-1-19-17 (19 ran-good to firm)

5-2-8 (15 ran-good)

11-12-10 (12 ran-good)

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)

3-15-9 (15 ran-good)

16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)

10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

15-4-20-9 (good)

10-12-3 (13 ran-good)

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (12 ran-good)

3-5-7 (11 ran-good)

1-11-13 (15 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Epsom card on Saturday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued before Friday’s sport was contested:

7 runners—John Gosden (9/33 – loss of 4 points to level stakes)

6—Aidan O’Brien (5/32 – Profit of 32 points)

5—Andrew Balding (15/106 – Slight profit)

5—Mark Johnston (14/113 – loss of 42 points)

5—Paul Midgley (1/8 – Profit on 9 points)

4—Richard Fahey (13/86 – Profit of 25 points)

4—Sylvester Kirk (4/30 – Profit of 12 ponts)

4—David O’Meara (3/124 – loss of 11 points)

3—Mick Channon (13/65 – Profit of 19 points)

3—Richard Hannon (10/59 – loss of 13 points)

3—Saeed Bin Suroor (5/29 – loss of 11 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (9/43 – Profit of 17 points)

2—Robert Cowell (1/20 – loss of 15 points)

2—David C Griffiths (0/2)

2—Mick Easterby (1/4 – slight loss)

2—David Elsworth (2/9 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Ron Harris (1/8 – loss of 2 points)

2—John Quinn (3/11 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/25 – loss of 11 points)

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

96 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £57.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £152.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield: £950.10 – 7 favourites – o winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Newcastle: £115.60 – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Hexham: £769.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 placed)

Worcester: £65.70 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *