Placepot Pointers – Saturday June 4

EPSOM – JUNE 5 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last five years at Epsom on Derby Day:

2015: £4,314.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £18.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

2013: £1,135.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £123.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £304.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,178.96 - 33 favourites - 10 winners - 10 placed - 13 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 8 (Dark Devil), 7 (Poet's Word) & 11 (Goodwood Mirage)

Leg 2 (2.35): 6 (Sayani) & 5 (Rosie Coton)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Postponed) & 8 (Simple Verse)

Leg 4 (3.45): 15 (Kimberella), 19 (Normal Equilibrium), 14 (Secretinthepark) & 10 (Green Door)

Leg 5 (4.30): 16 (Wings Of Desire), 14 (Ulysses) & 9 (Massaat)

Leg 6 (5.15): 1 (Polarisation), 3 (Duretto) & 13 (Ladurelli)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: As an additional guide for toteplacepot enthusiasts on Derby Day, I can reveal that the last twelve Derby cards at Epsom have produced an average Placepot dividend of £814.43.  82 favourites have emerged via the 72 races resulting in the following Placepot favourite stats: 20 winners--25 placed--37 unplaced.  Eight of the last nine winners of the opening event on the card have carried weights of 9-2 or less, whereby DARK DEVIL, MEDBURN DREAM and POET'S WORD should snare a toteplacepot position or two between them.  There will be worse outsiders on the day than GOODWOOD ZODIAC I'll wager, the course winner being touted as the complete outsider at 33/1 in the trade press.  Given that William Knight's dual winner has scored under yielding conditions on both occasion as well as scoring at Brighton (similar to Epsom to a fashion), 33/1 looks too big from my viewpoint. William's Kodiac raider is drawn 15/15, though last year's gold medallist scored from 11/13.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  13 of the 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (ten furlongs):

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)

6-1-5 (12 ran-good)

10-1-2 (14 ran-good)

8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9 (11 ran-good)

1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)

11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)

1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the opening event:

1/2--Goodwood Zodiac (good to soft)

1/1--Medburn Dream (soft)

1/1--Finelcity (soft)

2.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals of this contest and with four of the seven declarations representing the vintage, the trend could well be extended. The pick of the quartet from my viewpoint are the two overseas raiders SAYANA and ROSIE COTTON.  OAKLEY GIRL is expected to head the home contingent, albeit at a respectable distance in all probability.  SAYANA has plenty going for her here, only having tasted defeat on her debut when securing a silver medal.  Her three subsequent successes have proved that she is thoroughly progressive (Galileo) filly and providing she handles the track, the French raider looks home and hosed.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last thirteen favourites have prevailed as have nine of the latest eighteen market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

1-4-8 (9 ran-good)

6-2-3 (10 ran-good)

1-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)

5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-8-7 (8 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-good)

6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-2-3 (10 ran-good)

4 (3 ran-good)

10-1-5 (8 ran-good)

4-5-1 (8 ran-good)

6-5 (6 ran-soft)

2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the second contest:

1/1--Epsom Icon (good)

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (totequadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Derby day at Epsom during the last twelve years paid £133.72.  55 favourites emerged, resulting in 12 winners, 16 were placed, with 27 finishing out of the frame.  Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last eighteen renewals, with SIMPLE VERSE and FOUND expected to lead the other pair of vintage representatives home.  Whether they can beat POSTPONED is another matter entirely however, with Roger Varian's Dubawi raider coming to the gig on a top rate five timer on this occasion.  The afore mentioned pair of four-year-olds are class acts but in receipt of just three pounds, they might be fighting out the runner up position this time around.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last eighteen favourites have won, whilst thirteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

5 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-5 (7 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good to firm)

1-3 (5 ran-good)

8-5-1 (9 ran-good)

8-5-1 (8 ran-good)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

2-3 (7 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

9-6 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (11 ran-good)

4-8-7 (9 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-soft)

1-2 (6 ran-good to firm)

2 (4 ran-good to soft)

3-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the third event on the card:

1/1--Arabian Queen (good)

3.45: I tend to offer draw statistics in big races where possible for readers to determine where potential advantages lie, whether or not the powers that be have interfered with stall positions in recent years!  I leave it to readers to work out if there is any advantage to home in on. I have never been a 'sit on the fence' man like some 'media experts' who forever drone on about my type of work being futile given that it all depends on where the 'pace in the race' is coming from.  I think even 'they' will admit that in the Epsom Dash, pace is everywhere to be seen!  Six-year-olds have secured five of the last 11 renewals, whilst nine of the last ten gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  My ‘short list’ consists of KIMBERELLA (drawn 19/20), NORMAL EQULIBRIUM (7), SECRETINTHEPARK (5) and GREEN DOOR (13) with which to go to war against the old enemy.  The first three mentioned are the trio of six-year-olds in the line up, all racing from the 'superior' sector of the handicap. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to LATHAM (8).

Favourite factor: 11 the previous 13 favourites had finished out of the frame since a 9/2 joint favourite prevailed back in 2001, until the 2013 (Sir Michael Stoute trained) market leader scored at 5/1.  Last year's 6/1 market leader (STEPS) scrambled into fourth place securing a toteplacepot position for supporters.  That said, both (7/1) 'joint jollies' missed out twelve months ago.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

1-7-18-5 (20 ran-good to firm)

14-17-12-13 (19 ran-good)

19-1-5-13 (17 ran-good)

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)

8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)

15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)

17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)

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10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)

8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-11-8 (11 ran—good)

1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)

12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)

3-1-12 (12 ran—good)

11-2-9 (11 ran—good)

10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

Epsom record of course winners in the 'Dash':

2/3--Caspian Prince (good & good to soft)

1/2--Desert Law (good to firm)

1/3--Humidor (Heavy)

1/4--Duke Of Firenze (good)

1/3--Normal Equilibrium (soft)

4.30: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners and nine placed horses in the Derby during the last seventeen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few (if any) of his runners should be ignored.  US ARMY RANGER appears to be the main hope for the team in what looks to a wide open renewal.  York's Dante Stakes is far and away the best prep race these days however, though it is worth mentioning that as far as I can recall, only Workforce has won this 'Blue Riband' having been beaten on the Knavesmire in the trial. That probably rules Aidan's Deauville out of the equation, especially as his conqueror WINGS OF DESIRE was a taking winner of the Group 2 trial at York.  It's also worth reporting that trainer John Gosden has won this race twice before, having won the 'Dante' prep event with Benny The Dip and Golden Horn who went on to win this event.  ULYSSES and CLOTH OF STARS could both reward each way investors without necessarily winning the race which is destined to go to another 'Dante' winner in my book, namely WINGS OF DESIRE.  I could envisage MASSAAT being bang in contention at the two furlong pole, but that is when I expect the kettle to boil and how much jet propelled steam will be in the offing during the last quarter of a mile is an unknown factor.

Favourite factor: The last 17 winners of the Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include seven favourites of one sort or another.  Nine of the last thirteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Camelot was the first odds on favourite to win the Epsom Derby four years ago since Shergar obliged back in 1989 and the one thing we know about Saturday's race for sure, is that there will not a an odds on chance this season!

Draw factor:

8-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-2-11 (16 ran-good)

10-5-11 (12 ran-good)

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-10-2 (12 ran-good)

3-14-10 (16 ran-good)

14-8-2 (17 ran-good)

10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-12-4 (13 ran-good)

6-11-3 (14 ran-good)

4-16-8 (20 ran-good)

9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)

10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10 (15 ran-good)

1-5-17 (16 ran-good)

14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

5.15: Four-year-olds have claimed nine of the last eighteen renewals including eight of the last twelve (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last seven years - first, second and fourth two years ago).  POLARISATION (drawn 14/18), DURETTO (7), LADURELLI (8) and last year's winner BLUE SURF (drawn 4 - just one pound higher this time around) formulate my overnight ‘short list’ this year.  The very best of luck with all your bets on Derby Day, hoping that the weather stays dry (aside from personal bias towards some horses) for those braving the elements on the Downs this year.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won during the past eighteen years, whilst just five of the other seventeen market leaders have additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (twelve furlongs):

13-1-19-17 (19 ran-good to firm)

5-2-8 (15 ran-good)<br />

11-12-10 (12 ran-good)<br />

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)<br />

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)<br />

6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)<br />

3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)<br />

3-15-9 (15 ran-good)<br />

16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)<br />

10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)<br />

15-4-20-9 (good)<br />

10-12-3 (13 ran-good)<br />

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)<br />

2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)<br />

9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)<br />

4-2-1 (12 ran-good)<br />

3-5-7 (11 ran-good)<br />

1-11-13 (15 ran-good)<br />

Epsom record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3--Blue Surf (good to firm)

2/5--Barwick (soft & heavy)

1/1--Repeater (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Saturday:

These figures were compiled before Friday's sport was contested

6--Aidan O'Brien (7/33 at Epsom during the last five years and then the 2016 ratio: 0/1)

5--Mark Johnston (13/120 - 0/3)

4--George Baker (6/26 - 1/1)

3--Robert Cowell (2/17 - 1/1)

3--Richard Fahey (11/74 - 0/0)

3--Sir Michael Stoute (4/21 - 0/0)

3--Roger Varian (8/37 - 0/0)

2--Eric Alston saddles his first runners in over five years

2--Andrew Balding (18/118 - 0/1)

2--Ralph Beckett (9/41 - 0/2)

2--Karl Burke (1/7 - 0/1)

2--Tom Dascombe (0/11 - 0/1)

2--John Gosden (11/42 - 1/2)

2--William Haggas (1/26 - 0/0)

2--Richard Hannon (9/43 - 0/4)

2--Paul Midgley (1/9 - 0/0)

2--Gary Moore (2/47 - 0/2)

2--David Nicholls (0/14 - 0/0)

2--David O'Meara (2/19 - 0/0)

2--John Quinn (0/3 - 0/0)

2--Ed Walker (1/9 - 0/0)

+ 46 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview: 

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £82.20 (9 favourites - 5 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Hexham: £16.40 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

Lingfield: £61.00 (7 favourites - winners & 3 unplaced)

Musselburgh: £588.20 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

Worcester: £39.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

The Newcastle A/W card is a new fixture as you will appreciate!

 

 

 

 

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