KEMPTON – MARCH 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £80.50 (8 favourites – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (1.30): 11 (Peggies Venture), 1 (Apasionado) & 5 (Old Harry Rocks)
Leg 2 (2.05): 4 (Theatre Flame), 5 (Midtech Valentine) & 1 (Days Of Heaven)
Leg 3 (2.40): 11 (Divine Spear), 8 (Byron Flyer) & 1 (Sleep Easy)
Leg 4 (3.15): 5 (Sir Note) & 3 (Max Ward)
Leg 5 (3.50): 2 (Bugsie Malone) & 4 (Cloudy Bob)
Leg 6 (4.25): 1 (Cultivator) & 3 (Pilansberg)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 6-4 via just the ten contests to date and with PEGGIES VENTURE receiving a ton of weight from APASIONADO, I expect these two six-year-olds to come home in the order as listed. OLD HARRY ROCKS looks to be the pick of the five-year-olds from a value for money perspective.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include five winners. Seven of the ten winners have been sent off at odds of 7/4 or less though it’s not all good news as far as short priced horses in the race are concerned. A Paul Nicholls 1/10 chance was beaten by the minimum margin by a 16/1 outsider eight years ago.
2.05: Nine of the ten winners have carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst eight gold medallists were returned at a maximum price of 5/1. A tough race to assess via the form book despite the fact that just five runners have been declared in this 'short field' contest. The weight trend brings the two outsiders into the mix according to the trade press quote, namely THEATRE FLAME and MIDTECH VALENTINE, the latter horse hailing for the in-form yard of Ian Williams. I’m adding DAYS OF HEAVEN into the overnight equation, just in case a non-runner rears its ugly head which would turn the race into a ‘win only’ contest. New readers might want to know that the term 'short field' relates to a race which is contested by 5/6/7 runners, whereby just the first and second horses 'qualify' from toteplacepot/each way perspectives.
Favourite factor: Five of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include four winning favourites.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
2/2—Days Of Heaven (good & soft)
1/1—Midtech Valentine (soft)
2.40: The first thing to mention is for you to mind your bets, with both DIVINE SPEAR and GOLDEN SPEAR having been declared. The first named raider represents Nicky Henderson who comes to the gig on a hat trick with obvious claims. Tony Martin’s Irish representative GOLDEN SPEAR also merits respect, though it’s worth noting that last year’s beaten (Willie Mullins trained) favourite also has a long journey home to face after the race. SLEEP EASY and BYRON FLYER are others to consider.
Favourite factor: Both (7/2 & 4/1) favourites had claimed Placepot positions without winning their respective events before the 2/1 favourite sank without trace twelve months ago.
Record of the course winners in the third contest:
1/1—Top Tug (good)
3.15: Layers have shunned the chance of SIR NOTE on his last two starts to their cost and there seems no obvious reason why I should desert the grey gelding who is a credit to trainer James Eustace. Nico De Boinville’s mount has won his last four races under decent conditions going right handed. Whereby the hat trick looks on the cards from my viewpoint. MAX WARD is nominated as the main danger.
Favourite factor: Search parties are still out looking for the three unplaced favourites thus far.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
1/1—Sir Note (good)
3.50: CLOUDY BOB returns to defend his crown and though returned as a successful joint favourite twelve months ago, each way investors should obtain better odds this time around. The main threat could prove to be BUGSIE MALONE (Chris Gordon has his runners in fantastic form) and HANDSOME SAM.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites to date have secured two gold medal and two of the silver variety, securing toteplacepot positions along the way.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/3—New Horizons (good)
1/10 –Cloudy Bob (good)
4.25: Six-year-olds have won five of the nine renewals to date, with five-year-olds mopping up the other three contests. A few of these could have scrambled into a race at the Festival I guess, with six-year-old CULTIVATOR certainly in the mix, arguably alongside five-year-old PILANSBURG.
Favourite factor: Nine of the ten favourites have finished in the frame, stats which include four successful market leaders.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Nicky Henderson (9/43 – loss of 21 points)
5—Paul Nicholls (7/28 – loss of 5 points)
4—Alan King (7/24 – Profit of 8 points)
4—Emma Lavelle (1/7 – loss of 2 points)
3—Harry Fry (1/9 – loss of 6 points)
3—Tom George (2/12 – Profit of 1 point)
3—Philip Hobbs (1/13 – loss of 8 points)
3—Linda Jewell (No previous runners this season)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (1/14 – loss of 5 points)
3—Dan Skelton (3/36 – loss of 23 points)
2—Graeme McPherson (No previous runners this season)
2—Neil Mulholland (1/11 – Profit of 15 points)
2—Pat Phelan (0/3)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/12 – loss of 3 points)
2—Ian Williams (2/7 – Profit of 2 points)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
79 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell: 209.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Newcastle: £426.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £113.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £123.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced