KEMPTON – MARCH 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £31.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £619.89
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £859.85
Average Kempton NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £905.59 (4 meetings)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (2.05): 1 (Brain Power), 2 (Imperial Presence) & 9 (Preseli Star)
Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Ink Master) & 5 (Notnowsam)
Leg 3 (3.15): 14 (Abricot De L'Oasis), 2 (A Hare Breath) & 4 (Townshend)
Leg 4 (3.50): 8 (Ballybolley), 12 (Festive Affair) & 6 (Pumped Up Kicks)
Leg 5 (4.25): 1 (Ballyhenry) & 2 (Crimson Ark)
Leg 6 (5.00): 5 (Double Whammy), 7 (Muckle Roe) & 14 (Dollar Bill)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
2.05: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 6-3 via just the nine contests to date and this year's two vintage representatives VALHALLAH and PRESELI STAR boast each way claims in a race which will not take a great deal of winning I'll wager. Nicky Henderson's runner at Kempton are invariably worth a second glance, and that comment certainly applies to BRAIN POWER, with respect also offered to the chance of IMPERIAL PRESENCE.
Favourite factor: Seven of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include four winners. Six of the nine winners have been sent off at odds of 7/4 or less though it’s not all good news as far as short priced horses in the race are concerned. A Paul Nicholls 1/10 chance was beaten by the minimum margin by a 16/1 outsider seven years ago.
Kempton record of course winners in the first event on the card:
2.40: Eight of the nine winners have carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst seven gold medallists were returned at odds of 5/1 or less. A tough race to assess via the form book despite the fact that just seven runners have been declared in this 'short field' contest. INK MASTER is fancied to beat NOTNOWSAM, whilst CASINO MARKETS completes my trio against the other four contenders. New readers might want to know that the term 'short field' relates to a race which is contested by 5/6/7 runners, whereby just the first and second horses 'qualify' from toteplacepot/each way perspectives.
Favourite factor: Four of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include three winning favourites.
Kempton record of course winners in the second contest:
1/1--Purple 'n Gold
1/1--Always On The Run
3.15: Last year's 7/1 winner (Theinval) was the horse I homed in on and hoping to follow that success up, I'm opting for ABRICOT DE L'OASIS to hold off the challenges of MIGHT BITE and A HARE BREATH. The two Irish raiders TOWNSHEND (Willie Mullins) and VERCINGETORIX (Gordon Elliott) add interest to proceedings. The ground (seemingly) cannot be fast enough for the selection, whereby my interest in the race will increase overnight if the sun shines on Saturday.
Favourite factor: Both (7/2 & 4/1) favourites have claimed Placepot position to date without winning their respective events.
Kempton record of course winners in the third race:
1/1--A Hare Breath
1/2--Simply A Legend
3.50: BALLYBOLLEY represents Nigel Twiston-Davies whose horses were running well enough before the trainer enjoyed a few winners at Cheltenham whereby the team will be up and ready to get back to 'business as usual' by saddling Daryl Jacob's mount to decent effect. Nigel carries a rare enthusiasm which is camouflaged by a warm smile and I think those muscles with be working again following this event. I expect FESTIVE AFFAIR and PUMPED UP KICKS to be the biggest dangers at the business end of the contest. The latter named Skelton representative has a chance to leave recent form behind, possibly proving that this is a spring horse, rather than one that likes to keep warm by running during in the winter, without looking ever looking likely to win.
Favourite factor: Search parties are still out looking for the two unplaced favourites thus far.
Kempton record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/2--Un Beau Roman
4.25: Six-year-olds have won five of the eight renewals to date, with five-year-olds mopping up the other three contests. A few of these could have scrambled into a race at the Festival I guess, with course and distance winner BALLYHENRY certainly in the mix, arguably alongside fellow recent winner CRIMSON ARK. We have to weigh up the balance between horses that already 'have the t-shirt' against those that are potentially 'superior' thoroughbreds in the making, namely TEN SIXTY and KING KAYF.
Favourite factor: Eight of the nine favourites have finished in the frame, stats which include four successful market leaders.
Kempton record of course winners in the fifth event:
5.00: When DOUBLE WHAMMY 'gets round' of late he tends to win, and with the ground coming in his favour and trainer Iain Jardine having scored with three of his last seven runners at the time of writing, Iain's ten-year-old is the first (speculative) name on the team sheet in the 'lucky last'. Consistent MUCKLE ROE deserves to land another success, whilst I guess similar comments could also apply to ORBY'S MAN and (arguably) DOLLAR BILL.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites to date have secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety, securing toteplacepot positions along the way.
Kempton record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Saturday:
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
96 declared runners