NEWBURY – APRIL 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £47.20 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.50): 10 (Bodega), 9 (Coolking) & 7 (Tinker Time)
Leg 2 (2.25): 3 (Gala Ball), 6 (Warriors Tale), 7 (Ut Majeur Aulmes) & 13 (Icing On The Cake)
Leg 3 (3.00): 16 (Sister Sybil), 14 (Lamanver Odyssey), 7 (Theatre Territory) & 3 (Hitherjacques Lady)
Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Final Choice) & 6 (Dinsdale)
Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Red Indian) & 6 (Most Celebrated)
Leg 6 (4.45): 16 (Ligny) & 15 (Harefield)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Nine-year-olds have won three of the six renewals and of the relevant pair this time around, slight preference of for BODEGA over TINKER TIME. The first named raider hails from the Ian Williams yard which seems to have been in form month on month over both codes for some time now. Both horses will feature in my Placepot permutation, joined by COOLKING who comes to the gig on a four-timer.
Favourite factor: Five of the six winners (the last five) have scored at a top price of 8/1, statistics which include one (7/2) winner. Only two of the six jollies have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/3—Pete The Feat (heavy)
1/1—Tinker Time (good to soft)
2/6—Shotavodka (good to soft & heavy)
2.25: All three winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3 and if you take those stats seriously via the brief trend, 10 of the 14 declaration could be ruled out of the equation. The pick of the qualifiers on this occasion could prove to be GALA BALL from my viewpoint, though horses just under the weight barrier to catch the eye include WARRIORS TALE and UT MAJEUR AULMES. There will be worse outsiders on the card than ICING ON THE CAKE I’ll wager, conveniently ignoring the weight trend of course.
Favourite factor: Although we await the first winning favourite following three renewals, two market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far.
Record of course winners in the second race:
1/1—Grey Gold (soft)
2/5—O Maonlai (2 x good to firm)
1/3—Gala Ball (soft)
1/5—Ulck Du Lin (good to soft)
1/4—Warriors Tale (soft)
1/3—Ut Majeur Aulmes (good to soft)
1/2—Icing On The Cake (good to soft)
1/1—No Buts (soft)
3.00: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 6-3 via the last ten renewals, whilst every winner during the period carried a maximum weight of 11-3. SISTER SYBIL and LAMANVER ODYSSEY make most appeal from those which possess ticks in both boxes. Nicky Henderson has saddled four winners of the race, whilst Oliver Sherwood has picked up a couple of victories as well. Their respective runners are THEATRE TERRITORY and HITHERJACQUES LADY, though both entries hail from the wrong side of the weight according to the trends.
Favourite factor: Four market leaders have won this competitive event during the last decade and to clarify the positive nature of that comment, level stake favourite investors would have gained over 11 points during the period.
3.35: Warren Greatrex had saddled three winners and three silver medallists via his last nine runners at the time of writing, whereby FINAL CHOICE is the first name on my team sheet in another interesting contest on the Newbury card. This meeting is often overshadowed under the cloud of the Lincoln Handicap and it is good to see the fixture receiving top billing for a change. Final Choice has let himself down on the last two occasions having shown plenty of previous promise and I fancy this better ground might witness an improved showing, though that has to be the case if the Makfi gelding is to be taken seriously. DINSDALE is 13 pounds better off with Night Of Sin when well beaten by Lizzie Kelly’s mount at Bangor. There should not be a great deal of daylight between the pair this time around.
Favourite factor: Six of the last seven favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 7/4) winners.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2—Final Choice (good to soft)
4.10: Five-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals and Ben Pauling’s beaten favourite RED INDIAN is fancied to make amends for the Kelso defeat. MOST CELEBRATED is preferred to Sir Antony Browne as the main threat.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won five of the nine contests during the study period, with seven of those gold medallists having been returned at a top price of 5/2.
4.45: The penalised runners might do well to give weight and beatings to likely types in LIGNY and HAREFIELD who ran well in defeat on soft ground at Exeter at the first time of asking. The market will probably tell you all you need to know about the newcomer LIGNY who hails from the local yard of Nicky Henderson who will be keen to saddle winners to maintain his lead in the Trainers’ Championship which will be settled at Aintree in all probability.
Favourite factor: Pay your money and take the choice given the stats on offer. Four favourites have won ranging in odds between 4/6 and 4/1***, whilst other gold medallists during the last decade have been cheered home by the majority of the layers at 66/1, 33/1 & 12/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued – These stats were compiled before racing took place at Newbury on Friday:
6 runners—Alan King (5/23 – loss of 2 points)
4—Philip Hobbs (5/24 - Profit of 40 points)
4—Charlie Longsdon (0/12)
4—Gary Moore (0/20)
3—Henry Daly (0/1)
3—Nigel Hawke (1/4 – Profit of 17 points)
3—Nicky Henderson (8/39 – loss of 14 points)
3—Neil Mulholland (2/8 – Slight profit)
3—Oliver Sherwood (1/6 – Profit of 7 points)
3—Jamie Snowdon (0/3)
2—Mick Easterby (No previous runners)
2—Harry Fry (1/9 – loss of 4 points)
2—Tom George (2/13 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Karen McLintock (No previous runners)
2—Paul Morgan (0/4)
2—Paul Nicholls (3/31 – loss of 9 points)
2—Ben Pauling (3/11 – loss of 2 points)
2—Sue Smith (No previous runners)
2—Tom Symonds (0/1)
2—Colin Tizzard (5/17 – Profit of 6 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/19 – loss of 15 points)
2—Evan Williams (0/12)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
88 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bangor: £492.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Kelso: £1,036.70 – 7 runners – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
There were no meetings held at Stratford, Lingfield & Wolverhampton