KEMPTON – APRIL 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £119.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £600.20
Average A/W Placepot dividend in 2016: £308.89
Average Kempton A/W Placepot dividend in 2016: £493.24 (14 meetings)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Boater), 4 (Fastnet Spin) & 10 (Playful Trickster)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Chupalla) & 7 (Stormy Clouds)
Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Our Channel), 1 (Restorer) & 4 (Passover)
Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Master Of Finance), 10 (Barsanti) & 11 (Dutch Uncle)
Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Related) & 2 (Spring Loaded)
Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Hermitage Bay) & 2 (Cape Blanco)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
1.10: Although David Evans has decalred five runners in each of the two juvenile division of the opening race, it will be the Mark Jophnston raider that I will be pinning my hopes on in each instance. Mark absolutely dominate the early days of the two-year-old season twelve months ago whereby I am hoping that his Helmet filly BOATER can follow suit. The pick of David's quintet might prove to be FASTNET SPIN, whilst PLAYFUL TRICKSTER completes my trio against the other seven contenders.
Favourite factor: All three favourites which have been returned via four renewals to date claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (8/13) winner. The other (7/2) market was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.
1.40: MESMERIC MOMENT might lead the Evans quintet this time around though once again, I expect Mark Johnston's representative CHUPALLA (another Helmet raider) to thwart David and his team. Richard Hannon never likes to be headed at any stage of the season and we know that STORMY CLOUDS will be as 'straight' as Richard can get the Sir Prancealot representative on the first day of school.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card whereby the same stats apply.
2.15: William Haggas (OUR CHANNEL) has saddled two of the last six winners of this event, the only two horses that William has saddled since 2010! William has declared OUR CHANNEL this time around and regular readers will not surprised to read that this self-confessed 'anorak' will opt for William's course and distance winner. WINDSHEAR and RESTORER are obvious dangers, whilst PASSOVER could reward each way investors.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won five of the last six renewals.
Kempton record of course winners in the third race:
2.50: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 6-3 during the last decade, whilst Mark Johnston is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of the race during the study period. Four-year-olds have won the last three contests, whilst the last eight gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-3. Putting all the stats and facts together produces a short list of MASTER OF FINANCE, BARSANTI and DUTCH UNCLE. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to CAYIRLI.
Favourite factor: Seven renewals have passed since the last favourite obliged.
Kempton record of course winners in the fourth contest:
2/8--Castilo Del Diablo
3.25: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared the four renewals to date, whilst horses that finished in the first four positions met in this event last year when RELATED emerged victorious. PLUCKY DIP and YEEOOW could be regarded as well in via the pros and cons of that result twelve months ago, though horses that actually win races are invariably held close to my heart. If last year's runners are all beaten, Paul D'Arcy's dual course and distance winner SPRING LOADED looks the likeliest threat.
Favourite factor: Two of five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via four renewals, statics which include one (11/8) winner.
Kempton record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:
4.00: HERMITAGE BAY is John Gosden's only runner on the card and it would be something of a surprise if the War Front colt fails to go close, especially as the February foal was well backed (8/13 & 11/10) on his two outings thus far. Ralph Beckett's pair CAPE BLANCO and JUSTICE GRACE might offer most resistance in the shadow of the post.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in the toteplacepot finale, albeit three of the favourites have finished in the frame..
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Saturday:
10--David Evans (3/26 at Kempton this season)
5--William Knight (3/13)
4--Karl Burke (0/13)
3--Mark Johnston (3/14)
3--Stan Moore (0/11)
2--Michael Appleby (4/27)
2--Andrew Balding (4/40)
2--Ralph Beckett (5/25)
2--Tom Dascombe (0/3)
2--Ed Dunlop (2/7)
2--Richard Hannon (3/25)
2--Gary Moore (4/38)
2--William Muir (1/2)
2--Jonathan Portman (0/6)
2--David Simcock (2/16)
2--Ian Williams (0/13)
+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners