Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Saturday March 4

NEWBURY – MARCH 4

 

Friday's results not included into the mix where relevant.

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £421.70 (7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 8 (Hello George), 6 (Justification) & 5 (Royal Guardsman)

Leg 2 (2.05): 4 (Harry Topper), 6 (O’Faolains Boy) & 5 (Seventh Star)

Leg 3 (2.40): 5 (Bloody Mary) & 11 (Golden Birthday)

Leg 4 (3.15): 3 (Old Grangewood), 7 (More Buck’s) & 1 (Vibrato Valtat)

Leg 5 (3.50): 4 (Bol D’Air), 3 (Three Colours Red) & 5 (Vocaliser)

Leg 6 (4.25): 1 (Gala Ball) & 4 (Cepage)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30:  HELLO GEORGE was a horse full of potential a few years ago and though the Philip Hobbs raider has not achieved all that might have been expected by connections, all is not lost at eight years of age, especially with ground having come right for the eight-year-old. JUSTIFICATION and (possibly) dual soft ground course winner ROYAL GUARDSMAN are others to consider.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites thus far managed to snare a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

2/7—Royal Guardsman (2 x soft)

 

2.05: There is definitely a place for these ‘speciality’ races in the calendar in my opinion, especially at a course like Newbury when so many memories of great races fill the memory bank.  A few years ago the race for grey horses was instigated on the level, and here we a have a ‘veterans only’ event. Why shouldn’t we offer these fine old warriors another chance of visiting the winners enclosure before they are sent out to the paddocks? It's worth noting that ten-year-olds have won seven of the eight contests to date (barely into middle age!) and vintage representatives HARRY TOPPER, SEVENTH STAR and O’FAOLAINS BOY look to have a decent chances in this grade/company.  Ten-year-olds filled the frame two years ago, whilst three of the first four horses home twelve months on also hailed from the same vintage. ROCKY CREEK is an interesting each way alternative option if the ten-year-olds are to be denied.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites (one winner) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Just A Par (good to soft)

2/3—Harry Topper (soft & heavy)

1/2—O’Faolains Boy (soft)

1/1—Goulanes (good to soft)

2/5—Shotavodka (good to soft & heavy)

 

2.40: Six-year-olds have secured seven of the last twelve contests, with a 16/1 vintage representative beaten by only a neck three years ago when trying to improve the ratio further still.  Vintage representatives are 7/5 to extend the recent trend before the form book in taken into consideration and BLOODY MARY stands out from the crowd and no mistake.  Softening conditions only add encouragement.  The 7/2 quote at the time of writing makes plenty of appeal, with GOLDEN BIRTHDAY offered up as the each way option to consider.  Course and distance winner Mountbazon remains the ‘dark horse’ in the race, running off a five pound lower mark than when last successful four years ago.

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and two joint favourites have prevailed via the last fifteen renewals. Eight of the seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Mountbazon (good to soft)

 

3.15: Paul Nicholls has snared eight gold medals and three of the silver variety via the last 11 renewals of this event via just 22 runners.  Paul has declared VIBRATO VALTAT and MORE BUCK’S this time around and there might not be a great deal of daylight between the pair at the jamstick.  Both horses will be added into the mix from a Placepot perspective for obvious reasons though as a potential winner of the contest, Dan Skelton’s progressive six-year-old OLD GRANGEWOOD cannot be left out of the overnight equation.

Favourite factor: Seven of the ten market leaders that failed to win (alongside five successful favourites) finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

2/4—O’Faolains Boy (2 x good to soft)

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1/1—Thomas Crapper (good)

 

3.50: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried 11-2 or more, statistics which potentially eliminate the bottom weight VOCALISER in the handicap if you take the stats seriously though that said, five-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests, with VOCALISER coming to the gig on a four timer on behalf of the vintage.  In contrast, fellow five-year-old THREE COLOURS RED possesses ticks in both boxes, whilst BOL D’AIR boasts obvious claims in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Ten of the twenty market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last seventeen years, though winning favourites had been conspicuous by their absence before the 13/8 market leader obliged in 2012.  Winners at 25/1--20/1--14/1—14/1 have been recorded in the last 12 years, whilst horses filled the frame at 25/1—33/1—50/1—20/1 back in 2004. The relevant Tricast dividend was declared in excess of thirty-three thousand pounds!  Are you still ‘dining out’ on the dividend?

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

 

4.25: GALA BALL was a winner on soft ground on the corresponding card last year and there is every chance that the Philip Hobbs raider can go close to doubling up here, having returned to winning form last time out under similar conditions.  Venetia Williams has her team in marvellous form (as is often the case when the ground is soft/heavy) and CEPAGE is taken to give the selection most to do at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Newbury card.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Gala Ball (soft)

1/2—Cepage (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued – repeating the point that these stats were in place for the two day meeting which commenced on Friday:

6 runners—Tom George (1/9 – Profit of 4 points)

6—Paul Nicholls (1/26 – loss of 22 points)

4—Gary Moore (0/15)

3—Peter Bowen (0/5)

3—Chris Gordon (0/6)

3—Philip Hobbs (4/19 – Profit of 42 points)

3—Venetia Williams (2/6 – Profit of 16 points)

2—Kim Bailey (1/2 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Robin Dickin (0/3)

2—Nicky Henderson (8/34 – loss of 9 points)

2—Alan King (5/19 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (2/4 (Profit of 4 points)

2—Dan Skelton (1/17 – loss of 10 points)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £24.70 – 8 favourites – four winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Kelso: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield: £75.30 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle did not stage a meeting on this day last year

 

 

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