ASCOT – MAY 13
Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years:
2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)
2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)
2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)
2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)
2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)
2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £425.12 - 40 favourites - 9 winners - 7 placed - 24 unplaced
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Lord George), 7 (Mornington) & 2 (Southdown Lad)
Leg 2 (2.50): 9 (UAE Prince) & 5 (Knights Table)
Leg 3 (3.25): 5 (Artistocratic) & 4 (Permission)
Leg 4 (4.00): 2 (Remarkable), 22 (Taurean Star), 15 (George William) & 6 (Bossy Guest)
Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Aqabah) & 1 (Cardsharp)
Leg 6 (5.10): 19 (Nightingale Valley), 17 (Storm Line), 21 (Picket Valley), 6 (Rio Ronaldo) & 4 (War Whisper)
Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 15 of the 18 available Placepot positions via 53% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the six winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The six vintage representatives this time around are 5/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted in a potential eleven runner field. My preferred short listed in order of preference is LORD GEORGE, MORNINGTON and SOUTHDOWN LAD. William Hunter is offered up as the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Favourites have snared three toteplacepot positions via six renewals, statistics which include one (13/8) winner.
Record of the course winner in the opening contest:
1/1—William Hunter (good)
2.50: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-4 via eleven contests to date, whilst the last ten gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. If the vintage trends are to rule the day again, I fancy UAE PRINCE to deny a big race winner for James Tate who saddles the improving four-year-old KNIGHTS TABLE. The bronze medal could be snared by Baydar in an interesting contest.
Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites (six winners) have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/2—Star Storm (good)
3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 22 of the 32 available toteplacepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the seven vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be ARISTOCRATIC, PERMISSION and TEGARA, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing. The reserve nomination is awarded to the course and distance winner SINGYOURSONG.
Favourite factor: Only three of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.
Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:
1/1—Singyoursong (good to firm)
4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (14 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of REMARKABLE (drawn 13/27), TAUREAN STAR (7), GEORGE WILLIAM (23) and BOSSY GUEST (24) emerges. The reserve nomination is awarded to SQUATS (6).
Favourite factor: Eight of the 20 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include three winners.
Draw details for the last ten years (most recent renewal listed first):
29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)
23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)
25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)
13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)
2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)
7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)
21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)
1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)
13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)
16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)
9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)
Record of the course winner in the Victoria Cup:
2/5—Gm Hopkins (good to firm & good to soft)
2/7—Outback Traveller (good & good to soft)
1/8—Squats (good to firm)
1/3—Kadrizzi (good to firm)
2/14—Heaven’s Guest (good to soft & soft)
2/4—Taurean Star (good to firm & good to soft)
1/4—Professor (good to firm)
4.35: In some reports, this is listed as a new race which I cannot fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix. Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that five newcomers take on one experienced runner (CARDSHARP) who won on debut in a low key event at Brighton. A six pound penalty might stop the Mark Johnston raider in his tracks accordingly, especially with AQABAH having been declared to run by Charlie Appleby. Charlie has won with all three juveniles this season, whilst his Exchange Rate representative has the big Listed race at Redcar on his agenda at the back end of the season.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (11/4-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.
5.10: 15 of the 22 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1. Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-2 from a win perspective via just the six renewals) whereby my ‘short list’ consists of NIGHTINDALE VALLEY (11/25), STORM MELODY (2), PICKET LINE (3) and WAR WHISPER (8). If an entry belies the weight trend this time around, RIO RONALDO (17) could be the horse in question. Can there ever have been a 25 runner handicap race at Ascot on a Saturday before where there are no course winners in the field?
Favourite factor: All six market leaders have finished out with the washing in the toteplacepot finale.
2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)
1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)
4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)
3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)
9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)
7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their winners (and prices) via two meetings this season:
3 runners—Marco Botti
3—Richard Hannon (winner at 7/2)
2—Michael Bell (winner at 9/2)
2—Daniel Mark Loughnane
2—Roger Varian (winner at 5/1)
+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
87 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock (Mixed meeting): £690.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Lingfield: £90.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Nottingham: £337.60 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Thirsk: £391.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced
Hexham: £141.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Warwick: £19.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced