Placepot pointers – Saturday May 14

NEWBURY – MAY 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £134.40 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Mehmas), 3 (Global Applause) & 1 (Berkshire Boy)

Leg 2 (2.45): 4 (Eagle Top) & 1 (Star Storm)

Leg 3 (3.20): 6 (Remarkable), 2 (King Of Rooks) & 7 (Taneen)

Leg 4 (3.55): 11 (Mahsoob), 10 (Limato) & 12 (Toormore)

Leg 5 (4.30): 10 (Imperial Aviator), 6 (Vivre Pour Vivre) & 13 (Both Sides)

Leg 6 (5.05): 3 (Beautiful Morning) & 4 (Chastushka)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: An interesting 'dead eight' event for openers, just like last year in fact when horses priced at 11/1-12/1-8/1 filled the frame, setting up a nice Placepot dividend in the process.  Newbury continues to be the flat (turf) track to target in Placepot wagers.  When I wrote my first Placepot book back in 1994, Newbury was the top venue in terms of average Placepot dividends on the level and not much has changed.  Before I go any further I should report one startling fact from my perspective in that Richard Hannon (the younger) has already saddled well over 200 horses at Newbury, over half of which were juveniles!  Richard has offered the green light to his Chester winner MEHMAS who should take the beating here.  That said, Richard Fahey saddled the inaugural 11/1 winner twelve months ago and the trainer has declared his Kodiac raider Cullingworth who made light of heavy conditions at Redcar to score at the second time of asking.  With decent weather in the offing however, the ground should dry out to give others a chance, including the likes of GLOBAL APPLAUSE and BERKSHIRE BOY.  You will note that Ger Lyons has three runners on the card (Medicine Jack runs in this event), though the trainer is still looking for his first winner here at the Berkshire during the last five years following six beaten representatives.

Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural favourite finished out of the money at 3/1.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

3-7-4 (8 ran-good)

2.45:  Four-year-olds have won 10 of the last 18 renewals of this Listed staying event and vintage representatives will probably represent yours truly from a toteplacepot perspective on Saturday, namely STAR STORM and CARNACHY. The two horses are listed in marginal order of preference with connections probably having most to fear from EAGLE TOP who represents the unstoppable bandwagon of John Gosden/Frankie Dettori in major races this week.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 18 favourites have reached the frame (four winners), whilst all 18 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Record of Newbury course winners in the second race:

1/2--Eagle Top

1/1--Carnachy

3.20 (Listed Carnnarvon Stakes): 'Team Hannon' has secured two of the last six contests, though Richard (Junior) has confused proceedings by declaring a brace runners which are listed in marginal order of preference as LOG OUT ISLAND and KING OF ROOKS.  Just four pounds separate the pair according to the official assessor, though I guess many punters will side with the first named raider who has the benefit of race fitness on his side.  This self confessed 'rebel' might just reverse that theory from a value for money perspective. REMARKABLE has a lot to do after landing wins in maiden and handicap company though that said, John Gosden can almost 'walk on water' these days.  The declarations of 'dark horses' such as TANEEN and Sunflower merely add interest to a fascinating contest.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last eleven during which time, nine gold medallists have scored at a top rice of 4/1.

Record of Newbury course winners in the 'Carnarvon':

1/1--King Of Rooks

1/2--Twin Sails

3.55 (Group 1 Lockinge Stakes): Four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 18 renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whilst the last six winners carried official marks of 124-136-127-126-125-121 into the contest (average ratio of 126.5).  This race represents a drop in standard if we believe the figures, with the average BHA rating of 113 in the field on this occasion, the highest rated horses being LIMATO and TOORMORE who race off 119. LIMATO represents the four-year-old vintage and though connections were cursing their luck with all the rain falling earlier in the week, the wet stuff stopped midway through Thursday afternoon and is not set to return in this part of the world for many days according to the 'local' radar system.  The race might not turn out to be that difficult to predict, given that just two of the trainers have won this race to date, with both Richard Hannon (TOORMORE) and John Gosden (MAHSOOB, GM HOPKINS & JOHNNY BARNES - listed in order of preference) having saddled two winners apiece, which is quite special for Richard given his recent 'introduction' to full trainer status. Throw in last year's bronze medallist AROD and we have quite a feast in store, even though only LIMATO could start reaching the height of the 126.5 status of previous winners, should conditions allow Henry Candy's raider to give of his best.

Favourite factor: The last eighteen winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (ten winning favourites), whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Six of the last nine market leaders have won (joint favourites were recorded twelve months ago), as have nine favourites during the last thirteen years.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

3-15-6 (16 ran-good)

3-2-5 (8 ran--good to firm)

5-7-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (6 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-6-2 (11 ran-soft)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

7-8-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

10-2-3 (9 ran-soft)

5-1-11 (8 ran-firm)

3-8-14 (15 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good)

7-8-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

1-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (6 ran-soft)

8-4-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

Record of Newbury course winners in the 'Lockinge':

1/2--Belardo

1/1--Limato

1/1--Mahsoob

4.30: The last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 whereby IMPERIAL AVIATOR, VIVRE POUR VIVRE and (possibly) BOTH SIDES will represent yours truly in my toteplacepot permutation on Saturday.  Roger Charlton's first named raider represents the yard that has secured two of the last five renewals of this event, whilst VIVRE POUR VIVRE has been declared by Ed Dunlop whose team are going well just now.

Favourite factor: Five favourites (of one description or another) have prevailed during the study period, whilst 14 of the 24 market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (ten furlongs):

3-5-8 (13 ran-good)

7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good to firm)

14-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)

5-9-12 (12 ran-good)

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6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)

8-1-3 (10 ran-good)

5-9-13 (13 ran-good)

6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

3 (3 ran-soft)

8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

5.05: John Gosden has claimed two of the last five renewals of the toteplacepot finale and with his team in great form, John can score again with CHASTUSHKA who is preferred to stable companion SOUTHERN STARS, albeit marginally.  That all said, Luca Cumani has saddled six winners at this two day fixture during the last five years and yet BEAUTIFUL MORNING is Luca's only runner on either day this time around.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last eleven years, whilst ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of Newbury winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2--Epsom Icon

1/1--Chastushka

1/1--Last Tango Inparis

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday:

8--John Gosden (8/48 at Newbury last season)

6--Richard Hannon (11/109)

4--Marco Botti (0/14)

4--Roger Varain (3/25)

3--Andrew Balding (7/39)

3--Mick Channon (2/40)

3--Richard Fahey (3/19)

3--Charlie Hills (0/23)

3--Sylvester Kirk (2/24)

3--Ger Lyons (--)

2--Roger Charlton (3/21)

2--Clive Cox (0/23)

2--Ed Dunlop (1/15)

2--David Evans (4/18)

2--James Fanshawe (1/10)

2--Mark Johnston (2/22)

2--William Knight (0/7)

2--Hugo Palmer (0/5)

2--Sir Michael Stoute (5/25)

2--Saeed Bin Suroor (1/8)

+ 14 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 declared runners

 

General Overview:

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year: 

Bangor: £32.60 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

Warren Greatrex secured a 24/1 double on last year's card – 2 runners on Saturday

Doncaster: £105.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

Newmarket: £85.70 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

Thirsk: £70.30 (8 favourites - 4 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

Uttoxeter: £580.60 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Newbury overview:

Five year juvenile record of represented trainers for the relevant race at 2.10 on Saturday:

3/37--Andrew Balding (Berkshire Boy)

6/33--Richard Fahey (Cullingworth)

2/14--Ed Dunlop (Global Applause)

6/33--Mark Johnston (Mailshot)

No runners--Ger Lyons (Medicine Jack)

13/115--Richard Hannon (Mehmas)

7/89--Mick Channon (Stringybark Creek)

0/22--David Evans (Thora Barber)

 

 

 

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