NEWBURY – MAY 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £403.70 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Midterm), 5 (My Dream Boat) & 1 (Across The Stars)
Leg 2 (2.20): 8 (Perfect Angel), 1 (Private Matter) & 2 (Barrington)
Leg 3 (2.55): 5 (Defoe), 8 (Mucho Applause) & 9 (Glorious Forever)
Leg 4 (3.30): 6 (Mitchum Swagger), 1 (Aclaim) & 7 (Ribchester)
Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Denaar) & 4 (Koditime)
Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Gracious Diana) & 6 (Prosper)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Four-year-olds have won 10 of the last 19 renewals of this Listed staying event and vintage representatives MIDTERM and ACROSS THE STARS from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard are the first names on the team sheet this time around. That said, five-year-olds come to the party on a hat trick whereby the soft ground Royal Ascot winner MY DREAM BOAT in added into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 favourites have reached the frame (four winners), whilst the previous 18 winners had scored at odds of 8/1 or less before last year’s 14/1 gold medallists reared its ugly head.
Record of Newbury course winners in the opening event:
1/2—Midterm (good to soft)
2.20 (Listed Carnnarvon Stakes): 'Team Hannon' has secured three of the last seven contests, a factor which led to my leading with their 7/1 winner last year. The stable is not represented on this occasion however though moving onwards and upward in positive mode, my eyes are drawn to the top and bottom horses in the list, namely PRIVATE MATTER and PERFECT ANGEL. Both horses have form under today’s conditions whilst hailing from yards who have been sending out plenty of winners. The value for money reserve nomination is awarded to BARRINGTON whose trainer Charlie Hills saddled a 25/1 winner here at Newbury yesterday.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last twelve years during which time, nine gold medallists have scored at a top rice of 4/1.
2.55: The last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 whereby DEFOE, MUCHO APPLAUSEand GLORIOUS FOREVER will represent yours truly in my toteplacepot permutation on Saturday. Horses drawn in the lowest three stall positions have produced four of the last six winners, gaining a Placepot position between them on all six occasions. DEFOE (1/14) is the clear pick of this year’s relevant raiders. COUNT CALABASH is not entirely ruled out of the mix at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Six favourites (of one description or another) have prevailed during the study period, whilst 15 of the 25 market leaders have finished in the frame.
Draw factor (ten furlongs – the most recent result listed first):
3-4-5 (15 ran-good)
3-5-8 (13 ran-good)
7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
2-5 (7 ran-good to firm)
14-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)
1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)
11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)
12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)
5-9-12 (12 ran-good)
6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)
1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)
6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)
8-1-3 (10 ran-good)
5-9-13 (13 ran-good)
6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
3 (3 ran-soft)
8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)
3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)
Record of Newbury course winners in the third race:
1/1—Duke Of Bronte (good to firm)
3.30 (Group 1 Lockinge Stakes): Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 19 renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whilst the last seven winners carried official marks of 124-136-127-126-125-121-117 into the contest (average ratio of 125). I suggested last year that the contest twelve months ago represented a drop in class which proved to be the case via the 117 winner and with this year’s remaining eight runners running off an average figure of 115, much can be said for this latest renewal. This factor suggests that outsiders should be considered alongside those towards the head of the market, perhaps none more so than a 40/1 chance, namely MITCHUM SWAGGER one of the four course winners in the field. Before you send for the ‘men in white coats’, it would be wise to look at his record when racing on good/soft ground to date. Just one disappointing effort has been registered via six relevant assignments. One victory has been recorded alongside four placed efforts which included a third placed position in last year’s Royal Hunt Cup which was contested on soft ground. The other three (silver medal) efforts recorded defeats by just a neck and a head (two occasions). I perfectly understand if you prefer backing horses at the other end of the betting but do yourself a favour, at least have an each way saver on David Lanigan’s Paco Boy gelding. I offered two outsiders on the Windsor card on Monday night, one of which (Englishman) won at 33/1. It might just be a coincidence of course, but Paco Boy won this race back in 2010. I grant you that more logical winners in the field might include RIBCHESTER and ACLAIM but my money has already been invested at 40/1, with a small saver on Martyn Meade’s latter named representative at 9/1.
Favourite factor: The last nineteen winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (ten winning favourites), whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. Six of the last ten market leaders have won (joint favourites were recorded two years ago), as have nine favourites during the last fourteen years.
Draw factor (eight furlongs):
6-7-2 (12 ran-good)
3-15-6 (16 ran-good)
3-2-5 (8 ran--good to firm)
5-7-6 (12 ran-good to firm)
6-7 (6 ran-good)
4-7 (7 ran-good to firm)
3-1-7 (9 ran-good to firm)
10-6-2 (11 ran-soft)
7-3-10 (11 ran-good)
7-8-2 (8 ran-good to soft)
10-2-3 (9 ran-soft)
5-1-11 (8 ran-firm)
3-8-14 (15 ran-good)
4-6 (6 ran-good)
7-8-4 (10 ran-good to firm)
5-6 (7 ran-soft)
1-2 (7 ran-good to firm)
6-4 (6 ran-soft)
8-4-7 (10 ran-good to firm)
Record of Newbury course winners in the 'Lockinge':
1/3—Breton Rock (good to soft)
1/1—Ribchester (good to soft)
4.05: Newbury continues to be the flat (turf) track to target in Placepot wagers. When I wrote my first Placepot book back in 1994, Newbury was the top venue in terms of average Placepot dividends on the level and not much has changed. Before I go any further I should report one startling fact from my perspective in that Richard Hannon (the younger) has already saddled well over 300 horses at Newbury, 53% of which were juveniles, stats which have produced 18 relevant gold medallists. Richard has offered the green light to his Chelmsford winner DENAAR and with the trainer having mentioned Mehmas (last year’s winner of this race) when interviewed at the Essex venue after the relevant contest, it is no surprise to see the Acclamation colt turning up for this gig. Mehmas went on to pick up a couple of Group 2 races in 2016 (July Stakes & Richmond Stakes) and connections will have the same dreams twelve months on. KODITIME is marginally preferred to Kit Marlowe as the main threat to the selection.
Favourite factor: The inaugural favourite finished out of the money at 3/1 before last year’s 4/6 market leader found one too good (from a win perspective) when securing a Placepot postion.
Draw factor (six furlongs):
5-1-6 (8 ran-good)
3-7-4 (8 ran-good)
4.40: John Gosden has claimed two of the last six renewals of this fascinating contest and only the fact that his raider GRACIOUS DIANA gained her victory on fast ground prevents me from making her nap material this time around. That said, John’s Foxwedge filly has some serious rivals in opposition here, the pick of which might just prove to be PROSPER on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last twelve years, whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of Newbury course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Gracious Diana (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their winners and starting prices at the track this season:
5 runners—Richard Fahey
3—Richard Hannon (3 winners at 8/1-11/2-5/2)
3—Sir Michael Stoute
2—Brian Meehan (1 winner at 25/1)
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
65 runners at the time of writing
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £699.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Newmarket: £87.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Thirsk: £131.20 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Bangor: £224.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £486.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced