HAYDOCK – MAY 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £2,007.60 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock:
Leg 1 (1.55): 2 (Mainstream) & 3 (Gambit)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Moscato), 2 (Vive Ma Fille) & 6 (Venue)
Leg 3 (3.05): 10 (Garcia) & 14 (Shaiyem)
Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Thetis), 10 (Priceless) & 8 (Kassia)
Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Muthmir), 8 (Profitable), 13 (Waadi) & 3 (Cotai Glory)
Leg 6 (4.45): 10 (Ocean Sheridan) & 14 (Fingal's Cave)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Haydock overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: 13 of the 17 toteplacepot positions to date were secured by horses carrying weights of 8-10 or more, stats which includes all seven (7/1-9/2-9/2-10/3-2/1-2/1-11/10) winners. Unfortunately I cannot omit any of this year's runners, though I have left the stats in the analysis for those of you who keep records. An interesting opening event, especially as many of the six yards have their horses in good form. Sir Michael Stoute seems to have found the right opportunity for his Dansili raider MAINSTREAM to win the first of a trio of three-year-old handicaps on a testing card for punters. You will (hopefully) find the 'overview' of some assistance on Saturday as I have added three-year-old stat for the represented trainers in the relevant events. Tom Dascombe (GAMBIT) and (to a fashion) Alan King's representative RAINBOW DREAMER should be taken seriously according to the figures.
Favourite factor: Only two favourites (winners of their respective events) have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals thus far.
2.30: Regular readers will know that marathon events are not my favourite races by any means as what ‘media experts’ conveniently ignore is that such races contests were devised for horses who basically lack pace. That fact makes such races a lottery from my viewpoint but I appreciate that this is purely my opinion and others are entitled to theirs. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that MOSCATO, VIVE MA FILLE and dual course winner VENUE should take us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager. MOSCATO scored on his seasonal debut last year and this is the time of year to home in on Sir Mark Prescott's runners.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/2 favourite (frustratingly) finished fourth of eleven for investors who simply select the 'favourite option' when placing their wagers. The punters who had opted for either of the non runners would also have lost their cash of course, with the ruling in place that non runners automatically transfer onto the returned favourite. In the event of two or three favourites being returned, the horse with the lowest number (four as opposed seven as an example) is returned as 'favourite' as far as tote bets are concerned. Last year's second renewal was no better for favourite backers at the market leader could only finish fifth of fifteen.
Record of course winners in the second race on the card:
2/2--Venue (both victories gain on good to firm ground)
3.05 ('Silver Bowl'): The last eight winners of the ’Silver Bowl’ have carried a maximum of 9-2 and the pick of the 12 ’qualifiers’ via the weight trends here include GARCIA, SHAIYEM and WILD HACKED. I would home in on the first named pair should I have to reserve more permutation options for other races on the card. Indeed, I find it difficult to separate GARCIA and SHAIYEM, two highly progressive types.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium with 14 of the last 15 winners having scored at 15/2 or less, which is a remarkable stat given the competitive nature of this contest. That said, four of the last five market leaders finished out of the money.
Record of course winners in the third event:
3.40 (Class 1 'Cecil Frail' event): Three-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests of this fillies event, whilst vintage representatives have secured 13 of the last 24 available toteplacepot positions via just 33% of the total number of runners during the reduced period. The only vintage representative last year finished in the money at 9/1 and I am hoping that three of this year's four relevant declarations figure prominently, namely THETIS, PRICELESS and KASSIA. The fourth member of the party (LADY CLAIR) receives my overnight reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Two favourites have prevailed via the last eleven renewals, whilst just four of the last eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Draw details - 6 furlongs - most recent renewal listed first):
12-2-7 (12 ran - good - 28/1-7/1-9/1)
8-5-6 (10 ran - soft - 3/1*-8/1-11/2)
2-7-6 (8 ran - good to firm - 8/1-4/1***-4/1***)
4-1-8 (10 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-11/4)
15-7-4 (16 ran - good to firm - 11/1-12/1-18/1)
3-9-4 (9 ran - good to firm - 10/11*-12/1-12/1)
2-5-12 (11 ran - heavy - 16/1-7/1-12/1)
9-8-4 (10 ran - good - 9/2-11/2-4/1)
4-5-7 (15 ran - good to firm - 11/1-8/1-9/2)
13-12-1 (11 ran - good to firm - 6/1-7/2*-16/1)
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/1--Priceless (Good to soft)
4.10 (Temple Stakes): I stand by the statement I made for this race last year that sprinting events in this country have fallen several notches short of former years, whilst a lack of junior raiders this time around (just one declaration) sums up my frustration. I would suggest that if last year's winner MECCA'S ANGEL is to defend her crown successfully, plenty of the forecast showers might have to fall for connections to land the double. The potential rain scenario is, evidently, a definite possibility which makes the contest difficult to weight up. MUTHMIIR, COTAI GLORY and PROFITABLE are expected to offer the strongest challenges at the business end of proceedings though once again, I repeat the point that compared to the likes of previous winners such as Sharpo, Jayjur and Lochsong to name but three, these are poor days in the world of sprinting. For all that, I guess that WAADI has more potential than most (aside from three-year-old KACHY) and John Gosden's raider cannot be left out of the overnight equation.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 12 renewals have been secured by favourites.
Draw details - 6 furlongs):
8-3-6 (11 ran - good - 10/1-12/1-40/1)
7-1-5 (9 ran - soft - 9/4*-10/30-8/1)
10-4-5 (10 ran - firm - 14/1-9/1-3/1)
2-4-5 (12 ran - firm - 2/1*-3/1-14/1)
5-12-11 (12 ran - good to firm - 8/1-7/2-12/1)
4-6-9 (9 ran - good to firm - 3/1**-3/1**-7/2)
1-11-6 (9 ran - heavy - 15/2-2/1*-33/1)
3-1-10 (12 ran - good to firm - 7/2-10/1-11/2)
3-2-5 (8 ran 0 good to soft - 5/1-4/1-5/2*)
1-7-4 (12 ran - soft - 9/4*-33/1-20/1)
Record of course winners in the fifth race on the card:
1/2--Aeolus (good to soft)
1/4--Pearl Secret (good)
1/5--Sole Power (good to firm)
1/3--Steps (good to soft)
1/2--Take Cover (heavy)
1/1--Mecca's Angel (good)
4.45: I sometimes think that we become too technical when looking at races, or at least the people 'in control' are guilty of such ‘mistakes’ in my book. This race is a fine example because there are only three renewals quoted in most lists, mainly because the handicap ratings of horses concerned. This used to be a race for 0-85 horses but is now a 0-90 event and because of that (as far as I can gather) we (supposedly) have to ignore previous events. I might lose readers by keeping the results included in my records but there we are. Four-year-olds have generally held sway and vintage representatives that catch the eye this time around include OCEAN SHERIDAN, FINGAL'S CAVE and SNAP SHOTS. If the trends go base over apex on this occasion, MESHARDAL could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged alongside two 20/1 winners, 33/1, 16/1 & 10/1 gold medallists and an 11/2 chance. Three of the six beaten favourites additionally secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the second race on the card:
1/3--Snap Shots (soft)
1/5--Mappin Time (firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Haydock card on Saturday:
7--Richard Fahey (34/300 at Haydock during the last five years - before Friday's sport was contested)
5--Tom Dascombe (38/209)
4--Andrew Balding (9/56)
4--Richard Hannon (13/105)
4--Mark Johnston (26/221)
4--Roger Varian (24/97)
3--Mick Channon (8/94)
3--Robert Cowell (3/30)
3--Tim Easterby (13/147)
3--David O'Meara (23/173)
2--David Barron (8/70)
2--Karl Burke (9/99)
2--Clive Cox (5/47)
2--Michael Dods (4/56)
2--David Evans (3/36)
2--John Gosden (22/65)
2--William Haggas (18/68)
2--Sir Michael Stoute (6/44)
2--Ed Walker (3/28)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
85 declared runners
There are three competitive looking three-year-old handicaps on Saturday - trainer records with 3YO's at Haydock during the last five years listed in order of the race card - before Friday's sport was contested) - ratios highlighted of trainers who achieved at least a 20% strike rate:
5/28--Sir Michael Stoute
No previous runners--Simon Crisford