NEWMARKET – MAY 6
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends from the last six years:
2016: £16,246.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced
2015: £344.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
2014: £150.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
2013: £337.10 (8 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2012: £84.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
2011: £137.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Average dividend: £2,883.38 - 40 favourites in total - 14 winners - 10 placed - 16 unplaced (exact science)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 8 (Playful Sound), 4 (Ballet Concerto) & 6 (Next Stage)
Leg 2 (2.20): 4 (Alpha Delphini), 5 (Goldream), 11 (Profitable) & 9 (Muthmir)
Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (One Foot In Heaven) & 6 (Seventh Heaven)
Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Churchill) & 2 (Barney Roy)
Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Exmouth), 6 (Victory Angel) & 9 (The Wagon Wheel)
Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Khalidi), 4 (Night Circus) & 5 (Permian)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Four-year-olds come to the party having won six of the last ten contests, whilst securing 17 of the last available 34 Placepot/each way positions. Ten of the twelve winners of the race have carried weights of 9-0 or less, whereby my short list comprises of PLAYFUL SOUND, BALLET CONCERTO and NEXT STAGE. The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing, whilst the reserve nomination is offered to BERKSHIRE whose course record demands respect.
Favourite factor: Five of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one winner.
Record of the course winners in the opening contest:
2/2—Berkshire (good to firm & soft)
1/1—Next Stage (good to firm)
1/7—Bancnuanaheireann (good to firm)
2.20 (Palace House Stakes): Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of this event with ALPHA DELPHINI looking much the best prospect of just two vintage representatives this time around. Bryan Smart’s raider won on his first start last year, subsequently making great improvement and a return to that type of form would make his 14/1 quote this morning a decent each way option. PROFITABLE will not have the good to soft ground which he won on twelve months ago but Clive Cox’s raider obviously deserves his place among the favourites when attempting to defend his crown. Others to consider include GOLDREAM and MUTHMIR in a fascinating renewal.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last seventeen favourites have won, whilst 11/21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the second event on the card:
2/3—Goldream (2 x good to firm)
1/2—Profitable (good to soft)
2.55 (Jockey Club Stakes): Four and five-year-olds had won the last fourteen renewals between them (equal split) before last year’s renewal which was won by a four-year-old. The trend for the younger set looks set to be improved upon with SEVENTH HEAVEN having been declared, notwithstanding Mark Johnston’s entry Galapiat. The potential joker in the pack however is ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN who is a dual Group 2 winner already, with French raiders invariably running well at this venue down the years. Two withdrawals have taken this event into ‘win only’ territory and if the French raider can score, the Placepot dividend can only be enhanced as ‘foreign’ raiders are generally ‘underplayed’ in the Placepot.
Favourite factor: Six of the last thirteen renewals have fallen the way of favourites, though just one other market leader has struck gold during the last nineteen years. 11/20 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions in recent times.
Record of course winner in the Jockey Club Stakes:
1/2—Pinzolo (good to firm)
3.35 (2000 Guineas): Aidan O’Brien has won this race seven times in all though it should be noted that his 4/5 chance (Air Force Blue) twelve months ago ran a poor race, just in case you were jumping in with your ‘size twelves’ this morning. That said, CHURCHILL looks to be a worthy market leader, though BARNEY ROY also impressed in his trial and there may not be a great deal between the pair at the jamstick. With all the ‘war mongering’ being waged by media newsreels these days, I guess that Churchill would be an apt winner in 2017. Of the other more obvious pair in the field, I prefer Al Wukair to Eminent, though only from the stance that the overseas challenger will represent better Placepot value than Martyn Meade’s local hope. If you look below at the favourite stats you will know that I am about to cast an outsider into the mix which on this occasion is TOP SCORE, purely from a ‘small each way saver’ perspective you understand.
Favourite factor: Only four market leaders have won the 2000 Guineas since the turn of the Millennium, albeit 13/17 gold medallists scored at a top priced of 11/1. That said, the thick end of thirty per cent of the toteplacepot positions during the study period have been gained by horses starting at 25/1 or more! Four 100/1 chances have finished in the frame since the turn of the Millennium alongside the 150/1 runner up in 2013, notwithstanding the 40/1 winner three years ago.
2000 Guineas draw factor in recent years (2016 result offered first):
1-8-3 (13 ran-good to soft)
16-19-5 (18 ran-good to firm)
3-1-10 (14 ran-good to firm)
6-4-1 (13 ran-good to firm)
12-16-4 (18 ran-good to soft)
1-5-11 (13 ran-good to firm)
5-9-16 (19 ran-good to firm)
17-3-4 (15-good to firm)
6-14-9 (15 ran-good)
10-19-7 (24 ran-good to firm)
9-11-13 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-14-16 (19 ran-good to firm)
11-1-4 (14 ran-good)
Record of the course winners in the 2000 Guineas:
2/2—Eminent (2 x good to firm)
1/2—Larchmont Lad (good to frim)
4.10: 18/22 horses to secure toteplacepot positions via just the seven renewals thus far have carried weights of nine stones or less, stats which include all seven winners, three of which won at 16/1-16/1-12/1. Accordingly, my short list against the field consists of VICTORY ANGEL, THE WAGON WHEEL and EXMOUTH. The form of VICTORY ANGEL at the Craven meeting has already been boosted, whilst the other pair won at the first time of asking twelve months ago, proving (to a fashion) that they are not stuffy types who take time to build into their season. EXMOUTH is unexposed to say the least and Sir Michael Stoute’s raider would be the marginal (value for money) call if pushed to name a selection.
Favourite factor: All seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three winners at 9/2-9/2-11/10.
Newmarket record of course winners in the fifth event:
1/1—Victory Angel (good to firm)
4.45 (Newmarket Stakes): There is little point of waffling on about form details here when the pain and simple truth is that with a possible ‘win only’ Placepot finale in the offing, it makes sense to include all three potential winners in our Placepot permutation, whereby we can retire to the bar in fairly confident fashion, hoping that the horse with the least units prevail. This is only relevant of course if we have made it through the first five legs safely. A good recent run of Placepot results adds confidence when facing this stern test on Saturday. If pushed to name the winner, I would be influenced by the fact that KHALIDI is John Gosden’s only runner on the card.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged during the last fifteen years, whilst 11/19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season following three meetings + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Richard Hanon (1/12 – loss of 1 point)
5—Aidan O’Brien (1/4 – Slight profit)
4—Richard Fahey (0/5)
4—Mark Johnston (0/6)
4—Sir Michael Stoute (0/5)
3—David Evans (0/1)
3—Hugo Palmer (0/6)
3—Saeed Bin Suroor (2/5 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Andrew Balding (1/5 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Paul Cole (0/1)
2—Robert Cowell (0/2)
2—Clive Cox (0/1)
2—William Haggas (0/5)
2—Charlie Hills (1/11 – loss of 5 points)
2—Roger Varian (2/3 – Profit of 4 points)
+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
67 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £296.10 – 8 favourites – 3 winners & 5 unpklaced
Goodwood: £416.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Thirsk: £880.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
Hexham: £10.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £221.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced