ASCOT – MAY 7
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)
2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)
2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)
2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)
2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £464.72 - 32 favourites - 7 winners - 7 placed - 18 unplaced
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.55): 4 (Raffle King), 1 (Visionary) & 3 (Prerogative)
Leg 2 (2.30): 11 (Forever Popular), 9 (Perestroika) & 5 (King Bolete)
Leg 3 (3.05): 6 (Torcedor) & 2 (Elite Army)
Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Pandora) & 9 (Tutu Nguru)
Leg 5 (4.15): 21 (Predominace), 20 (Hold Tight) & 28 (Free Code)
Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Intisaab), 10 (Micky Haller) & 20 (Feeling Easy)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: Mick Channon has saddled four of the eight winners of this event and with so many options available to him in the juvenile sector, RAFFLE KING must have been showing the trainer plenty back at the ranch. Mick's Distorted Humor colt comes to the gig as a beaten favourite but I have to point out that the defeat was recorded at Brighton where experienced individuals have trouble negotiating that switchback track, let alone horses that are attending school for the first time. Connections would not have been too disappointed I'll wager, a thought which is backed up by taking on this Class 3 opposition. Robert Cowell's raider VISIONARY won the race in question but is six pounds worse off with Mick's representative having beaten him by just a head and half a length. 'Weights and Measures' types might suggest that it could be close between the pair this time around though in theory at least, RAFFLE KING should gain his revenge. REACH HIGH and Richard Hannon's newcomer PREROGATIVE are other potential winners in an interest opening event. In some reports, this is listed as a new race which I cannot fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (11/4-11/8-11/8) winners.
2.30: Four-year-olds have secured 13 of the 15 available toteplacepot positions via 51% of the total number of runners, statistics which include four of the five winners at 13/2-9/2-13/8-6/4. The five vintage representatives this time around are even money to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted in a twelve runner field. My preferred short listed in order of preference taking the relevant sextet into account consists of FOREVER POPULAR, PERESTOIKA and KING BOLETE. Andrew Balding's course and distance winner DURETTO is offered up as the overnight reserve.
Favourite factor: Favourites have snared three toteplacepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include one (13/8) winner.
3.05: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-3 via ten contests to date, whilst the last nine gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. If the vintage trends are to rule the day again, TORCEDOR is a likelier winner than GIANT REDWOOD via the form book. That said, GIANT REDWOOD was beaten on heavy ground the last day, having previously scored well on debut. Five-year-old course and distance winner ELITE ARMY is the potential joker in the pack from my viewpoint, with the Godolphin raider defending an unbeaten record here at Ascot, albeit via just the one assignment. Scotland tends to disappoint too often for my liking, whilst Astronereus has needed an outing to give of his best on each of his last two terms at school.
Favourite factor: Six of the eleven favourites (five winners) have secured toteplacepot positions.
3.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 21 of the 29 available toteplacepot positions (stats include seven of the ten winners) and the pick of the quartet four-year-old representatives might prove to be PANDORA, HAVRE DE PAIX and LIGHT AND SHADE, the trio being listed in order of preference at the overnight stage. The reserve nomination is awarded to three-year-old TUTU NGURU, especially as James Fanshawe's filly was beaten less than three lengths in a Listed race last time out, despite only finishing fourth of five.
Favourite factor: Only three of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.
4.15: Four and five-year-olds have won 13 of the last 16 renewals of the Victoria Cup (14 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of PREDOMINANCE (drawn 11/29), GRAND INQUISITOR (19), HOLD TIGHT (9) and FREE CODE (24) emerges. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to FORT BASTION (14).
Favourite factor: Eight of the 19 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include three winners.
Draw details for the last ten years (most recent renewal listed first):
23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)
25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)
13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)
2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)
7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)
21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)
1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)
13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)
16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)
9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)
4.45: 13 of the 18 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1. Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results whereby my ‘short list’ consists of INTISAAB (22/22), MICKY HALLER (11), MAGICAL DAVE (4) and FEELING EASY (21). If a horse belies the weight trend, NORMANDY BARRIERRE (2) could be the horse in question.
Favourite factor: All five market leaders have finished out with the washing in the toteplacepot finale.
1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)
4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)
3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)
9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)
7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday:
5--Williams Haggas (5/34 at Ascot last season - No runners this season before Friday's spot was contested)
4--Michael Appleby (2/13 - No runners)
3--Richard Fahey (3/39 - 0/1)
3--John Gallagher (1/5 - No runners)
3--David O'Meara (1/25 - No runners)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor 3/23 - No runners)
2--Andrew Balding (3/37 - No runners)
2--Mick Channon (1/22 - 0/1)
2--Robert Cowell (2/13 - No runners)
2--Richard Hannon (8/74 - 0/6)
2--Ron Harris (0/8 - No runners)
2--Mark Johnston (5/43 - 0/1)
2--Brian Meehan (2/28 - No runners)
2--Gary Moore (1/9 - No runners)
2--Amanda Perrett (0/3 - 0/1)
2--Stuart Williams (0/11 - No runners)
+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
86 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock (Mixed meeting): £1,511.00 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Hexham: £141.60 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Susan Corbett secured a 13/1 a double last year - 4 runners there on Saturday
Lingfield (Turf): £442.30 (6 runners - 1 runner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Nottingham: £403.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Thirsk: £265.20 (6 runners - No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
Warwick: £19.10 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Dan Skelton secured an 8/1 double last year - 4 runners there on Saturday
Rebecca Curtis secured a 6/1 double last year - 1 runners there on Saturday
Represented trainers in the juvenile event (1.55) and their five year record at Ascot in the two-year-old sector:
Robert Cowell (Visionary) - No runners
Clive Cox (Harry Angel) - 4/18
Richard Hannon (Prerogative) - 9/57
Mick Channon (Raffle King) - 5/55
Saeed Bin Suroor (Reach High) - 4/17
Brian Meehan (Son Castello) - 2/26
Eve Johnson Houghton (Super Julius) - 1/5