CHELTENHAM - NOVEMBER 12
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £8,525.60 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (Defi Du Seuil) & 1 (Wealth Des Mottes)
Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Thistlecrack) & 4 (Ballycross)
Leg 3 (1.50): 4 (Unioniste), 13 (Fourth Act), 16 (Cogry) & 11 (Doctor Harper)
Leg 4 (2.25): 12 (Aso), 11 (Double Shuffle), 15 (Stiletto) & 16 (As De Mee)
Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (The Eaglehaslanded), 8 (Valhalla) & 14 (So Fine)
Leg 6 (3.35): 3 (Artic Gold) & 4 (Black Corton)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: The overnight weather forecast deep into Saturday does not inspire confidence in terms of a long spell of dry weather which caused the ‘cross country’ to be called off yesterday alongside Leicester’s meeting on Monday. Upwards and onward however by suggesting that two foreign imports could find the ground to their liking, namely DEFI DU SEUIL and WEALTH DES MOTTES. The latter named Paul Nicholls raider represents the stable which has secured three of the last six renewals, whilst DEFI DU SEUIL created a great impressing when dotting up at Ffos Las on his first assignment on these shores. DINO VELVET is the other potential winning the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: 13 of the last 18 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include seven winners.
1.15: THISTLECRACK is potentially the star of the entire (three day) meeting, with Colin Tizzard’s grand servant just a 4/1 chance (10/1 bar) for the Cheltenham Gold Cup at this venue in March. It would be churlish to find fault with his efforts over the bigger obstacles to date. Suffice to say that with potentially softening ground overnight is unlikely to cause the eight-year-old too many problems. Hopefully investors will get a better run that those who emptied their pockets on Barters Hill on Friday. BALLYCROSS might prove to be the value for money call for forecast investors, especially if plenty of rain falls at ‘Headquarters’ overnight.
Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last nineteen years, though just five of the other eleven market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
2/3—Thistlecrack (good & heavy)
1.50: 16 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 11-6 or less, whilst 12 of those gold medallists were burdened with a maximum of 10-13. Seven year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 4-2 via the last six renewals and putting the stats and facts together, my overnight short list comprises of UNIONISTE, FOURTH ACT, COGRY and DOCTOR HARPER. All four horses should be able to cope with poor conditions, a comment which also applies to my reserve selection MIDNIGHT PRAYER.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have snared gold of late alongside one co favourite, whilst 13 of the 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
1/5—Sausalito Sunrise (good to soft)
1/3—Minella Rocco (good to soft)
1/2--Midnight Prayer (good to soft)
2/16—Any Currency (2 x good)
2.25: Six and seven-year-olds have claimed 11 of the last 13 renewals of this Paddy Power Gold Cup (seven-year-olds lead 8-3 during the relevant period), whilst vintage representatives have secured an additional 17 toteplacepot positions in the process. 11 of the last 14 gold medallists carried a maximum weight of 11-2, whilst the Pond House (David Pipe) team has claimed eight of the last 17 contests. Putting the facts and stats together suggests that ASO, DOUBLE SHUFFLE, STILETTO and AS DEE MEE should give us a decent run for our collective monies. ASO will surprise many readers with Venetia Williams bare having had a runner in several months but with the forecast as it stands, ADO is my each way call. DOUBLE SHUFFLE represents a bang in form stable in Tom George, whilst Noel Fehily is an eye catching booking for Johnny Farrelly’s improver STILLETTO. The weight stats suggest that AS DE MEE might be the Nicholls horse to be with, the stable having won this race a couple of times in recent years. I doubt that More Of That will represent any value come flag fall, especially if the ground becomes testing. If you are on at bigger odds, fair play to you.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 17 years, whilst 10 market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.
Record of the course winners in feature race:
2/6—Taquin Du Seuil (2 x good)
3/9—Annacotty (good to soft – soft – heavy)
1/6—Art Maureque (good)
2/8—Village Vic (soft & heavy)
4/5—More Of That (3 x good + soft)
2/10—Thomas Crapper (good & good to soft)
3.00: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last fourteen renewals of this event, whilst claiming an additional nine toteplacepot positions in the process. The last seventeen winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less and putting the stats and facts together three years ago led to your truly making a case out for the 20/1 winner Return Spring. The following 9/2 winner Katkeau was also short listed and this year's main focus centres on THEEAGLEHASLANDED, VALHALLA and SO FINE.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leasers (all within the last twelve years) have won this event alongside two joint favourites. 15 of the last 23 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the fifth event:
2/4—Fingal Bay (good & good to soft)
1/2--The Eaglehaslanded (good)
1/7—So Fine (soft)
3.35: Five and six-year-olds have shared 17 of the 18 renewals to date with an even split recorded before another five-year-old scored twelve months ago to give the younger set the edge. It defies belief that only a quartet of five-year-olds have been declared, with ARCTIC GOLD, BLACK CORTON and BOARD OF TRADE all expected to figure prominently in a highly competitive Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have obliged to date, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions. Ten of the last sixteen winners were returned at 40/1-16/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-10/1-8/1.
Record of the lone course winner in the last race from a Placepot perspective:
1/2--Midnight Shot (good)
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Saturday followed by 5 year stats and profits/losses accrued – stats accurate before Friday’s sport was contested:
9 runners—Paul Nicholls (49/353 – Profit of 24 points)
7—Alan King (15/144 – loss of 6 points)
7—Colin Tizzard (7/122 – Profit of 35 points)
6—Philip Hobbs (32/225 – Profit of 3 points)
6—Jonjo O’Neill (18/172 – loss of 24)
4—Rebecca Curtis (8/82 – loss of 15 points)
4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (23/212 – loss of 72 points)
3—Martin Keighley (9/79 – loss of 9 points)
3—Fergal O’Brien (10/82 – Profit of 42 points)
2—Charlie Byrnes (2/15 – loss of 1 point)
2—Harry Fry (9/53 – loss of 4 points)
2—Tom George (5/84 – loss of 45 points)
2—Warren Grteatrex (3/40 – loss of 13 points)
2—Iain Jardine (0/1)
2—Emma Lavelle (2/55 – loss of 48 points)
2—Sophie Leech (0/17)
2—Charlie Longsdon (3/81 – loss of 58 points)
2—David Pipe (25/228 – loss of 5 points)
2—Dan Skelton (8/72 – loss of 27 points)
+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
104 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Uttoxeter: £73.60 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Wetherby: £62.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Lingfield: £81.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £90.40 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced