HAYDOCK - NOVEMBER 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £84.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock:
Leg 1 (12.10): 3 (Baratineur), 1 (Clyne) & 2 (Baby King)
Leg 2 (12.40): 1 (Connetable), 2 (Aristo Du Plessis) & 5 (El Teremoto)
Leg 3 (1.15): 2 (Rigadin De Beauchene), 8 (Wood Yer) & 11 (Voyage A New York)
Leg 4 (1.50): 3 (Old Guard) & 4 (Ch’Tibello)
Leg 5 (2.25): 12 (Point The Way), 10 (Western Cape), 14 (Affaire D’Honneur) & 3 (Yala Enki)
Leg 6 (3.00): 2 (Cue Card) & 5 (Seeyouatmidnight)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.10: BABY KING returns to defend his crown here in a highly competitive affair, despite only seven runners having been declared. Trainer Tom George has seemingly been able to walk on water of late but his magical ways might have to be in place if his seven-year-old is to thwart raiders such as BARATINEUR and the top weight CLYNE, two runners which will find conditions to their liking. I have plenty of respect for the dual Newton Abbot winner Verni but this is a step up in class, along with the fact that livelier ground might have improved his chance.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have won thus far, whilst five of the six available Placepot positions have been snared by horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-2, stats which include both gold medallists.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/2--Baby King (soft)
1/4--Sleepy Haven (heavy)
12.40: CONNETABLE is slightly preferred to ARISTO DU PLESSIS in the projected conditions, whilst EL TERREMOTO would also be added into the overnight equation if I could be assured that this ground will not stop the four-year-old in his tracks. Five pound claimer Stan Sheppard boasts a 25% strike rate via three winners for Paul Nicholls to date and the young pilot has a fine chance of improving the ratio still further in this grade/company I’ll wager, having been offered the ride aboard CONNETABLE.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 market leader could only finish fifth of nine contenders twelve months ago.
1.15: I cannot quite fathom why this has been described as a new race, considering the contest is run over the same distance as last year, with the handicap ‘chase event having been given the same Class 3 classification. For the time being (until being proved wrong), I am keeping the stats in place, especially as Venetia Williams saddled the winner last year, which is a definite pointer to her heavy ground course and distance winner RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE. I also have to mention WOOD YER and VOYAGE A NEW YORK who receive a lot of weight here, with yours truly fancying their each way/Placepot chances.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished out with the washing thus far, with last year’s 7/2 market leader being the only horse not to complete the race.
Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:
2/5—Rigadin De Beauchene (2 x heavy)
1.50: OLD GUARD has been given the green light by Paul Nicholls in preference to Irving (would have been defending his crown here), presumably on account of the ground. Supporters of the old warrior Melodic Rendezvous will be loving every drop of rain that falls overnight. It is surely too much to ask the ten-year-old to be winning this contest however, though there is every chance that he will figure prominently for a long way with conditions to his liking. That said, I have to side with another five-year-old CH’TIBELLO (alongside Old Guard) against their older rivals, with nine-year-old My Tent Or Yours completing the ‘win only’ field.
Favourite factor: The two (1/3 & 10/11) favourites have won their respective events thus far.
Record of the course winner in the line-up:
1/4--Melodic Rendezvous (heavy)
2.25: Five-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, facts which led me to short listing the last two (12/1 & 9/1) winners. I was astounded to find that just three vintage raiders had been declared in a big field last year, the quintet finishing in the first five positions which hardly surprised yours truly! Upwards and onward again by suggesting that proven mudlark POINT THE WAY might run as his name implies, by leading the quartet of five-year-olds home, taking the spoils ahead of WESTERN CAPE, AFFAIRE D’HONNEUR and MATORICO. The Venetia Williams team is revving up nicely now and I am mindful that YALA ENKI could throw a spanner into the works here though that said, Venetia’s six-year-old will have to run better than when finishing out of the frame when returned as the beaten favourite in the race twelve months ago. That said, YALA ENKI is a winner of two of his last five subsequent assignments and conditions will be in his favour.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve market leaders (via eleven renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three winners.
Record of the course winner in the contest:
3.00: Paul Nicholls has saddled six of the last ten winners and having declared his 2012 & 2014 winner Silviniaco Conti again this year, Paul will be hoping to improve the recent trend still further. Whilst the old stager (Conti, not Paul) is not regressing as such, he is not improving either and in a match bet, I would be inclined to side with the improving eight-year-old SEE YOUATMIDNIGHT over the dual winner, possible siding with Irish Cavalier too if bookmakers priced up such a dual. SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT could yet be anything in the ‘staying’ sector, albeit CUE CARD stands in his way here, notwithstanding the much anticipated declaration of CONEYGREE who was the first novice chaser to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2015 since Donald Trump was in short trousers. The only time we have subsequently seen Mark Bradstock’s great servant was in the ironically named ‘Future Stars’ event as Sandown before things turned against the Karinga Bay representative. I would not have a bet with your money in all honesty because I am too fond of several horses in this contest whereby I would like to witness a triple dead-heat at the very least. Using the head rather than the heart, I would suggest that CUE CARD would be very hard to beat if in the same form as last year when he was at his imperious best. That factor along with Coneygree’s lack of race fitness should enable CUE CARD to beat SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT with something to spare I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten warm favourites (four of them winners of their respective races at 4/6, 4/5, 10/11 and 11/10) have reached the frame to date. The other (2/5--4/5--15/8--3/1) market leaders missed out in toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/3—Cue Card (2 x soft)
2/4—Silviniaco Conti (2 x soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Haydock card on Saturday – followed by 5 year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued – before Friday’s sport was contested:
4 winners – Phlip Hobbs (7/58 – loss of 20 points)
4—Paul Nicholls (14/60 – loss of 4 points)
3—Sue Smith (11/94 – Profit of 20 points)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (10/70 – loss of 26 points)
3—Venetia Williams (13/78 – loss of 2 points)
2—Jenny Candlish (3/32 - loss of 18 points)
2—Emmanuel Clayeux (No runners)
2—Rebecca Curtis (0/14)
2—Nicky Henderson (4/37 – loss of 28 points)
2—Dan Skelton (5/30 – loss of 5 points)
2—Evan Williams (5/46 – Profit of 37 points)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
57 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ascot: £32.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Huntingdon: £82.60 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £78.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £201.90 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced