NEWBURY - NOVEMBER 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £375.60 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Dusky Legend) & 4 (La Bague Au Roi)
Leg 2 (12.55): 2 (Thistlecrack) & 3 (Ibis Du Rheu)
Leg 3 (1.30): 7 (Waldorf Salad), 9 (Mystifiable) & 4 (Antony)
Leg 4 (2.05): 9 (Robinshill), 5 (Oscar Sunset) & 2 (Born Survivor)
Leg 5 (2.40): 4 (Tommy Silver), 1 (Who Dares Wins) & 5 (Omessa Has)
Leg 6 (3.10): 7 (Saphir Du Rheu), 8 (Vincente), 4 (Native River) & 5 (Blaklion)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: The ground will hopefully dry out a little overnight (providing there is not too much of a frost) which will suit DUSKY LEGEND, though there is a slight worry in terms of giving three pounds to LA BAGUE AU ROI. Both appear to be improving mares who will not go down without a fight from my viewpoint. One thing I’m as sure as I can be is that Copper Kay will finish third, particularly of course if all the mares get home safely.
Favourite factor: The first two (11/10 & Even money) favourites had finished out of the toteplacepot positions in ‘short field’ events before the last pair of market leaders evened up the score. New readers might want to know the term (short field) used by yours truly which refers to a five/six/seven runner race in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from a toteplacepot/each way perspective.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
1/1—Dusky Legend (good)
12.55: Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last six contests in which his stable was represented. Paul was responsible for the two of the nine declarations at the four day stage and never to be frightened of one horse, the trainer takes on THISTLECRACK with ISIS DU RHEU. THISTLECRACK to beat IBIS DU RHEU is the call, with the Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite not expected to be given too hard a race. It’s tough to be a trainer with horses like THISTLECRACK because on the one hand you have a horse that looks like a superstar in the making but that said, you want a workout for your inmate before being rushed into a hot event without having had too much experience off the bridal.
Favourite factor: Only two favourites have obliged during the last decade thought that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at just 8/1. Only three of the last ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the second event:
2/3—Bigbadjohn (good & good to soft)
1.30: Nine of the last twelve winners of this event have carried weights of 11-5 or more and we have 11 ‘qualifiers’ to assess this year. My short list consists of WALDORF SALAD, MYSTIFIABLE and the hat trick seeker ANTONY. The reserve nomination is awarded to GENTLEMAN JOHN.
Favourite factor: Seven of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winning favourites.
Record of the course winner in the third contest:
1/1—Mystifiable (good to soft)
2.05: This looks as tough a race as most to assess this weekend, especially given the poor record of favourites in handicap hurdle events beyond the minimum trip. I expected the handicapper to give some relief to GIBALFARO but that has not turned out to be the case since being soundly beaten at Cheltenham. ROBINSHILL and OSCAR SUNSET make most appeal, though BORN SURVIVOR is yet another of Dan Skelton’s potential improvers this weekend.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
2/6—Royal Guardsman (2 x soft)
2.40: Four-year-olds have won five renewals during the last decade and the three relevant entries (from top stables – they know stats matter) all hold decent chances, namely TOMMY SILVER (Paul Nicholls), WHO DARES WINS (Alan King) and OMESSA HAS (Nicky Henderson)
Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the study period, six of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, whilst each way investors might have backed the other trio who were sent off at 8/1, 11/1 & 16/1.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/1—Ozzie The Oscar (good)
3.10: Six and seven-year-olds have won 10 of the last 13 renewals of the Hennessy Gold Cup between them, with the seven-year-olds leading 6-4 in recent times. Indeed, seven-year-olds have secured six of the last 11 contests. The average official mark of the winners during the study period was 152. Taking the stats and facts into consideration, I have to make the point as I have done before but if you didn’t know that Paul Nicholls follows the trends, you have missed many ‘tricks’ down the years. His two seven-year-old raiders which sit one spot either side of the relevant 152 mark should silence the doubters once and for all, irrespective if SAPHIR DU RHEU and/or VICENTE gain Placepot positions. NATIVE RIVER and that young terrier BLAKLION are others to consider alongside the returning champion SMAD PLACE.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won the Hennessy Gold Cup during the last 19 years, though just two of the other 13 market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions. 11 of the last 13 winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less.
Record of the course winners in the Hennessy Gold Cup:
3/4—Smad Place (good to soft – soft – heavy)
1/2—Native River (good to soft)
1/6—Houblon Des Obeaux (soft)
1/2—Triolo D’Alene (good)
1/1—Local Show (soft)
1/4—Hadrian’s Approach (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their five year stats and profits/lossess accrued to level stakes (stats compiled before Friday’s sport was contested at Newbury):
7 runners—Paul Nicholls (28/148 – loss of 11 points)
5—Nicky Henderson (34/148 – loss of 17 points)
5—Colin Tizzard (7/72 – loss of 30 points)
4—Philip Hobbs (18/104 – Profit of 64 points)
4—Alan King (16/149 – loss of 64 points)
4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/83 – Profit of 21 points)
3—Kerry Lee (2/6 – Profit of 7 points)
3—Charlie Longsdon (4/54 – loss of 27 points)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (9/84 – loss of 28 points)
2—Rebecca Curtis (8/56 – Profit of 7 ponts)
2—Tom George (5/63 (loss of 40 points)
2—Warren Greatrex (9/53 – loss of 9 points)
2—Anthony Honeyball (2/23 – loss of 13 points)
2—Gary Moore (6/64 – loss of 8 points)
2—Ben Pauling (4/12 – Profit of 8 points)
2—Lucinda Russell (No runners)
2—Tim Vaughan (2/32 (loss of 17 points)
2—Evan Williams (2/28 – loss of 4 points)
2—Venetia Williams (9/93 – loss of 47 points)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
79 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bangor: £156.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Doncaster: £99.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Newcastle (NH): £869.60 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £291.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced