Placepot Pointers

Placepot pointers – Saturday November 5

DONCASTER - NOVEMBER 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £1,488.80 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 7 (Red Gunner), 4 (Harvest Wind) & 3 (Gloriux)

Leg 2 (12.40): 11 (Wurood) & 9 (Jersey Heartbeat)

Leg 3 (1.15): 2 (Gheeda), 13 (Golden Apollo) & 9 (Man Of Verve)

Leg 4 (1.50): 14 (Albernathy), 18 (Cricklewood Green), 6 (Withernsea) & 12 (Mount Tahan)

Leg 5 (2.25): 6 (Kimberella), 8 (Jane’s Memory) & 5 (Jack Dexter)

Leg 6 (3.00): 17 (Materialistic) & 9 (Aljazzy)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.10: No less than 39 trainers have just one runner at the meeting, whilst 30 handlers have declared at least two horses at the last meeting of the turf season.  I mentioned in despatches that last year’s 16/1 winner Times Legacy almost certainly had potential to fulfil and this year’s list on that score includes RED GUNNER, GLORIUX and HARVEST WIND who can build on a reasonable first effort under yielding conditions at Nottingham.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last 25 favourites have prevailed, with 17 market leaders claiming toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-9-7 (8 ran-heavy)

1-9 (7 ran-heavy)

9-8-1 (12 ran-soft)

6-2-13 (14 ran-soft)

10-14-8 (15 ran-soft)

14-7-12 (15 ran-good)

12-9-7 (15 ran-soft)

10-5-9-11 (16 ran-soft)

6-4-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

8-12-6 (15 ran-good to soft)

7-6-10 (14 ran-soft)

15-16-3 (15 ran-soft)

17-6-7 (15 ran-soft)

7-1-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-6-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

Two divisions were contested at Windsor in 2006

2-3-18 (18 ran-soft)

7-16-19 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-7-11 (14 ran-good)

6-2-4 (13 ran-heavy)

8-15-1 (17 ran-soft)

1-4-12 (21 ran-heavy)

12.40: If William Haggas had a chance of a winner in the first race with Red Gunner as I believe the trainer has, that is most certainly the case here via William’s Dark Angel raider WUROOD who did not do a great deal wrong on debut at Yarmouth.  Bated Breath had plenty of zip as a racehorse whereby JERSEY HEARTBEAT could go close on debut if inheriting any of her dad’s speed.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card whereby the same stats above apply here.

1.15: Thirteen of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more, as have 34 of the last 41 horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions.  14 of the 20 entries qualify in the overnight mix taking potential claims into account, with GHEEDAA, GOLDEN APOLLO and MAN OF VERVE making most appeal. GOLDEN APOLLO represents Tim Easterby who has won the last two renewals when represented.  Tim has also declared VENTURA SECRET, though Rachel Richardson’s claims drops Tim’s April foal into the ‘inferior sector’ of the handicap according to the weight trends.

Favourite factor: Six market leaders have prevailed via fourteen renewals to date, though five of the other nine market leaders finished out of the frame.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-1-5 (12 ran-heavy)

3-4 (5 ran-heavy)

1-5-4 (12 ran-soft)

10-16-12-13 (16 ran-good)

16-17-14-13 (17 ran-soft)

5-2-3 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-15-13-20 (20 ran-soft)

12-15-13 (15 ran-soft)

5-7-13-16 (18 ran-good to firm)

Race contested at Windsor in 2006

6-11-5 (12 ran-good to soft)

3-4 (7 ran-heavy)

6-1-5 (8 ran-heavy)

3-6-7 (10 ran-soft)

1.50: All eight winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1 and if the trend is to be extended, I fancy ALBERNATHY, CRICKLEWOOD GREEN and WITHERNSEA to do the business between them.  The latter named Richard Fahey raider won this event carrying 8-12 twelve months ago and as ever (particularly in handicap events), Richard has his hand on the pulse, reducing the burden of last year’s winner via a jockey claim to just 8-13. I made a big play on last year’s 20/1 bronze medallist (Farlow) and of the potentially bigger priced runners twelve months on, I could make a case for Mount Tahan to figure prominently.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include two (6/1 & 4/1) favourites.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

7-15-4-10 (21 ran-heavy)

3-7-1 (14 ran-heavy)

12-8-18-14 (20 ran-soft)

2-5-10-11 (20 ran-good)

2-1-9-6 (21 ran-soft)

13-21-1-3 (21 ran-good to soft)

5-14-4-10 (20 ran-soft)

21-12-5-9 (21 ran-soft)

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

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1/3—Hillbilly Boy (soft)

1/3—Right Touch (god to soft)

1/7—Dinkum Diamond (soft)

1/1—That Is The Spirit (soft)

2/4—Withernsea (soft & heavy)

1/3—Al Khan (good to firm)

2.25: An argument could be made that this is as tough as the November Handicap which (yet again), does not (unfortunately) play any part in the toteplacepot scenario this year.  Much depends on the weather because KIMBERELLA would be a strong fancy if the ground remained on the quick side but with rain having fallen here in Bristol for twelve hours now, JACK DEXTER could have his conditions again.  Four-year-olds have secured three of the last six contests with vintage raiders hopefully best represented by JANE’S MEMORY.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have obliged during the last thirteen years, whilst aside from those winners, the last nine market leaders have finished out with the washing.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

1-9-8 (14 ran-heavy)

9-2-3 (11 ran-heavy)

5-10-18 (18 ran-soft)

12-7-11 (19 ran-good)

11-2-1 (16 ran-soft)

18-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-6-2 (12 ran-soft)

10-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

11-1-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-10-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

6-7-2 (13 ran-soft)

5-10-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

20-22-14 (21 ran-good)

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

4/10—Jack Dexter (3 x soft + heavy)

1/7—Kimberella (good to soft)

3.00: Three and four-year-olds have dominated recently landing 12/13 renewals, with junior raiders leading 7-5 during the period.  I’m sticking with the junior set here and with MATERIALISTC having won under good to soft and good to firm conditions, I am pinning my faith on Ralph Beckett’s Oasis Dream raider to score. ALJAZZY is given the nod over LADY OF CAMELOT to join the selection in the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have obliged during the study period whilst other gold medallists have been returned at odds of 33/1-25/1-14/1-12/1.  Eight of the last twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Saturday followed by this season’s stats at the course with profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

9 runners—Richard Fahey (5/82 – loss of 38 points)

7—David O’Meara (6/55 – loss of 10 points)

6—William Haggas (6/25 – loss of 2 points)

6—Kevin Ryan (1/33 – loss of 31 points)

5—Mark Johnston (4/48 – loss of 23 points)

4—Richard Hannon (2/22 (loss from 2 points)

4—John Quinn (2/22 – loss of 2 points)

4—Ian Williams (0/9)

3—Andrew Balding (1/14 – Profit of 7 points)

3—Michael Appleby (2/24 – Profit of 3 points)

3—Marco Botti (2/20 – slight profit)

3—Declan Carroll (0/7)

3—Jim Goldie (2/24 (Profit of 10 points)

3—John Gosden (10/37 – Profit of 6 points)

3—Tim Easterby (2/54 – loss of 31 points)

3—Roger Varian (7/27 – Profit of 11 points)

2—George Baker (0/9)

2—David Barron (3/21 – Profit of 18 points)

2—Karl Burke (3/27 – Profit of 43 points)

2—Ruth Carr (3/15 – Profit of 17 points)

2—Keith Dalgleish (1/13 – loss of 6 points)

2—Tom Dascombe (2/20 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Scott Dixon (10/113 – Profit of 47 points)

2—Roger Fell (1/1 – Profit of 33 points)

2—Micky Hammond (0/5)

2—Charlie Hills (1/20 – loss of 18 points)

2—Steph Hollinshead (0/5)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (1/11 – loss of 3 points)

2—Hughie Morrison (2/10 – loss of 1 point)

2—Joseph Tuite (1/2 – Profit of 1 point)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

136 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Aintree: £2,772.80 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Kelso: £33.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wincanton: £170.10 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £130.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

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