ASCOT - OCTOBER 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £162.80 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.00): 11 (Eternally), 9 (Dazzling Rose) & 13 (Mise En Rose)
Leg 2 (2.30): 8 (Move Up), 5 (Star Storm) & 7 (Western Hymn)
Leg 3 (3.05): 9 (Shalaa) & 7 (Windfast)
Leg 4 (3.40): 17 (Dutch Law), 8 (Squats) & 11 (Afjaan)
Leg 5 (4.15): 10 (Priceless), 2 (Easy Road) & 11 (Fine Blend)
Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Dutch Masterpiece), 11 (Shipyard) & 8 (My Name Is Rio)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Three-year-olds have won 13/14 renewals of this race to date, and with 11/17 runners represented by vintage raiders this time around, the odds are 8/15 for another three-year-old winner to score before the form book comes into play. The John Gosden pair ETERNALLY and DAZZLING ROSE will surely figure prominently and I would be surprised if at least one of the pair failed to make the frame at the very least. Others to consider include MISE EN ROSE and SHADOW HUNTER.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged to date, whilst eight market leaders have finished in the frame.
2.35: Four-year-olds have won seven renewals of the 'Cumberland Lodge' during the last 12 years and last year’s winner STAR STORM looks sure to make his presence felt twelve months on, despite the fact that four subsequent efforts have failed to build on that success. What we have to take into account however is that STAR STORM has gained all three victories in September/October to date. That said, three-year-olds have secured three of the last five contests and in MOVE UP, the vintage will be well represented according to the gospel of yours truly. My trio against the remaining six entries is completed by WESTERN HYMN.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have won during the last 11 years alongside two joint favourites, whilst all 12 gold medallists have won at a top price of 4/1. 11 of the 15 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the ‘Cumberland Lodge’:
1/1—Arab Spring (good to firm)
2/4—Duretto (good to soft & soft)
1/1—Star Storm (good)
1/1—Move Up (good to firm)
3.05: Only a handful of three-year-olds have contested this event during the last six years having secured three victories at 13/2, 6/1 and 9/4, figures which are backed up by 20/1 and 8/1 silver medallists in two of the years when the vintage missed out from a win perspective. SHALAA is the potential ‘star turn’ in the field and if John Gosden’s Invincible Spirit colt can come to the course in anything like the form shown in his first year, Franie Dettori’s mount must go close. Potential ‘spoilers’ in the ranks include WINDFAST (Richard Kingscote retains the ride) who battled on well to win at Newmarket last time out. You could not rule out Raucous with any degree of confidence with the Haggas runners still performing at the top of their game.
Favourite factor: Three of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (one winner) thus far.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
2/6—Outback Traveller (good & good to soft)
3.40: 12 of the 16 winners to date carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst four-year-olds have secured four of the last 10 contests. Course and distance winner DUTCH LAW (one of only two horses with ticks in both boxes) demands plenty of respect, whilst the Haggas pair SQUATS and AFJAAN also have to be considered. Last year’s winner BUCKSTAY is the nominated overnight reserve.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last 19 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2--Librisa Breeze (good to firm)
1/3—Growl (good to firm)
1/7—Squats (good to firm)
2/13—Heaven’s Guest (good to soft & soft)
4.15: I suggested last year that the 10/1 winner (Dutch Masterpiece) could oblige if junior raiders missed out and if PRICELESS and FINE BLEND (representing the three-year-old vintage) fail to win between them, the Norwegian raider EASY ROAD could snare gold. KIMBERALLA and WILLY THE CONQUROR are others involved in the overnight mix..
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 15 winners have been returned at prices ranging between 9/2 and 33/1, with just one winning favourite recorded during the study period. Six of the last 12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions which in a competitive races such as this, is a half decent record.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/3—Double Up (good to firm)
3/18—Medicean Man (3 x good)
2/6—Sole Power (2 x good)
1/2--Iffranisia (good to soft)
4.50: DUTCH MASTERPIECE won on the card last year and with trainer Gary Moore on a roll now under both codes, the six-year-old is not without a chance under a useful five pound claimer. Readers might be right to suggest that more obvious winners in the field this time around include last year’s winner SHIPYARD and MY NAME IS RIO.
Favourite factor: The two favourites snared gold and bronze medals when securing toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2--Dutch Masterpiece (good)
3/12—Dungannon (good – good to soft – soft)
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday (stats complied before Friday’s sport was contested):
5—Richard Fahey (1/28 at Ascot this season – loss of 20 points)
5---John Gosden (5/36 – Profit of 4 points to level stakes)
3—Andrew Balding (2/27 – loss of 17 points)
3—Robert Cowell (2/16 – Profit of 4 points)
3—William Haggas (2/28 – loss of 6 points)
3—David O’Meara (0/22)
3—Sir Michael Stoute (5/32 – Profit of 9 points)
3—Roger Varian (2/20 – loss of 11 points)
2—Mick Channon (0/25)
2—Catherine Erichsen (---)
2—John Gallagher (0/9)
2—Richard Hannon (6/72 – loss of 39 points)
2—Ron Harris (0/6)
2—Gay Kelleway (0/2)
2—William Knight (0/9)
2—William Muir (0/10)
2—Joseph Tuite (0/4)
+ 40 trainers with one entry
86 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newmarket: £4.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Redcar: £50.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Fontwell: £186.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £96.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced