ASCOT - OCTOBER 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £72.90 (7 favourites - 2 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.25): 5 (Order Of St George) & 10 (Simple Verse)
Leg 2 (2.00): 12 (Shalaa), 14 (Quiet Reflection) & 5 (Librisa Breeze)
Leg 3 (2.35): 13 (Seventh Heaven) & 8 (Architecture)
Leg 4 (3.10): 8 (Galileo Gold), 13 (Minding) & 10 (Ribchester)
Leg 5 (3.45): 9 (Almanzor), 8 (Found) & 3 (Jack Hobbs)
Leg 6 (4.25): 18 (Mutarakez), 5 (Here Comes When), 10 (Morando) & 1 (GM Hopkins)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.25: It is hardly surprising that Irish trainers Dermot Weld and Aidan O’Brien have declared runners for this opening event, given that trainers from across the Irish Sea have secured four of the last five events. FORGOTTEN RULES returns again having won this contest two years ago, albeit he was a beaten (joint) favourite twelve months on. ORDER OF ST GEORGE is Aidan’s representative from what would have been any number of options for the trainer. SIMPLE VERSE is the potential ‘dark horse’ in the race given her step up in trip after another fine success last time out. Ralph Beckett’s Duke Of Marmalade filly is nothing if not consistent at a very high level.
Favourite factor: Six of the last eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via four gold medals and two of the silver variety.
Record of course winners in the opening contest:
1/3—Forgotten Rules (heavy)
1/1—Order Of St George (soft)
1/1—Quest For More (good)
1/2--Simple Verse (good to soft)
2.00: Three-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals, with four junior raiders lining up this time around, the pick of which should prove to be SHALAA and QUIET REFLECTION, the pair being listed in order of preference at the overnight stage. That said, both LIBRISA BREEZE and SIGNS OF BLESSING are also running well and with LIBRISA BREEZE seemingly loving this venue, Dean Ivory’s mount is chosen as the main threat to the junior set.
Favourite factor: The last eight contests had slipped by without a successful market leader being registered before the 5/2 favourite obliged three years ago. The race had reverted to type during the next two years however, with a pair of 7/2 favourites finishing out with the washing. Another 5/2 market leader came to the aid of punters last year. Eight of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include two winners.
Record of course winners in the second race:
1/4--Growl (good to firm)
1/12—Jack Dexter (soft)
2/3—Librisa Breeze (good to firm & soft)
1/3—The Tin Man (good)
1/2--Twilight Son (good to soft)
1/1—Quiet Reflection (good to soft)
2.35: Three-year-olds have secured five of the eight renewals thus far, with SEVENTH HEAVEN boasting rock solid ‘Oaks’ form thus far, albeit not the Epsom version!. To emphasise the three-year-old stats, junior representatives have claimed 13 of the 24 available toteplacepot positions to date, with ARCHITECTURE expected to also go close with some give in the ground, which looks like being the order of the day according to forecasters across the board.
Favourite factor: Five of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.
Record of the course winners in the third event:
1/1—Californian (good to firm)
1/1—Even Song (soft)
3.10: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last ten renewals with junior representatives a shade of odds on to extend the advantage still further before the form book is consulted. Taking the form lines into account, I would be bold enough to suggest those odds are nearer 2/7 with GALILEO GOLD, MINDING and RIBCHESTER having been declared, notwithstanding four other junior entries. As much as this appears to be a competitive event on paper, I cannot envisage the winner emerging from beyond this trio.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 15 favourites have finished in the frame (six winners), though I should remind you of the defeat of Hawk Wing back in 2002 at odds of 1/2.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Queen Elizabeth’:
1/2--Breton Rock (soft)
1/1—Galileo Gold (soft)
3.45: Five-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, with four-year-olds having secured the other three contests. With Fascinating Rock being the pick of the relevant trio of five-year-olds in the field, I am anything but confident that the hat trick will be landed. JACK HOBBS was an even money chance in the race last year whereby the 12/1 quote in the trade press makes each way appeal, though another bronze medal might be the best we can hope for with ALMANZOR and FOUND have been declared.
Favourite factor: Only two favourites have prevailed in the last fourteen years, whilst seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period. That all said, the two successful market leaders were New Approach and Frankel!
Record of the course winners in the Champion Stakes:
1/1—Fascinating Rock (good to soft)
1/1—My Dream Boat (soft)
4.25: Five-year-olds have won both contests and the quintet of representatives are 3/1 to land the treble before the form book is consulted. GM HOPKINS is arguably the pick of the relevant raiders, though there are a trio of rivals that I prefer from a win perspective at least, namely MUTARAKEZ, MORANDO and HERE COMES WHEN. The latter named Andrew Balding Rider would be a particularly interesting each way call if plenty of moisture was in the turf by the time that flag fall was reached.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished out with the washing via two renewals.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/4—GM Hopkins (good to firm & good to soft)
1/7—Bronze Angel (heavy)
1/8—Chil The Kite (good)
1/5—Dutch Law (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday:
8—Richard Fahey (1/33 at Ascot this season – loss of 25 level stake points)
8—Aidan O’Brien (8/30 – Profit of 40 points)
7—John Gosden (7/41 – Profit of 5 points)
4—David Simcock (1/10 – loss of 5 points)
3—Andrew Balding (2/32 – loss of 22 points)
3—William Haggas (3/35 – loss of 4 points)
3—Hughie Morrison (1/10 – Profit of 3 points)
3—Saeed Bin Suroor (5/27 – loss of 4 points)
3—Dermot Weld (0/4)
2—Henry Candy (1/9 – loss of 4 points)
2—Roger Charlton (2/11 – loss 8 points)
2—James Fanshawe (1/13 – loss of 4 points)
2—Hugo Palmer (2/13 9 loss of 2 points)
2—Kevin Ryan (0/12)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (6/37 – Profit of 17 points)
2—Roger Varian (2/21 – loss of 12 points)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
84 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Catterick: £30.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Ffos Las: £467.90 – 8 favourites – 4 winners & 4 unplaced
Market Rasen: £31.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Stratford: £134.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £24.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced