Placepot pointers – Saturday October 22

DONCASTER - OCTOBER 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £282.00 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.35): 2 (American Artist), 12 (Makzeem)  & 5 (Laurence)

Leg 2 (2.05): 1 (Hilario), 4 (Timeless Flight) & 10 (Rose Briar)

Leg 3 (2.40): 3 (Soie D’Leau), 14 (My Name Is Rio) & 20 (Dungannon)

Leg 4 (3.15): 12 (To Be Wild) & 13 (Uae Prince)

Leg 5 (3.50): 6 (Rivet), 8 (Sir Dancealot) & 4 (Finn McCool)

Leg 6 (4.25): 8 (King Of Swing), 5 (He’s My Cracker) & 7 (Briyouni)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.35: Course and distance winner AMERICAN ARTIST is the first name on the team sheet for Saturday, given Roger Varian’s 7/20 ratio on Town Moor, figures that were accurate before Friday’s sport was contested.  Roger’s four-year-old is slowly coming down the weights, have crept up the scale in alarming fashion when winning three races from four assignments between July and September last year.  Others to consider in a competitive opening event (the major understatement this weekend I’ll wager) include MAKZEEM, LAURENCE and (possibly) JACBEQUICK.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winners in race one:

1/2--American Artist (good)

1/5—Hit The Jackpot (good)

2.05: Night Of Thunder won this race three years ago en route to his Newmarket Guineas success, though unless one of the horses improves tremendously here, I doubt that we will be seeing next year's first classic winner of the 2017 season.  That said, it might prove unwise to belittle the victory of HILARIO at Kempton, especially with Charlie Hills having his team springing back to form this week.  A half-brother to The Tin Man, HILARIO might prove to be the pick of the field from a value for money perspective, with TIMELESS FLIGHT and ROSIE BRIAR offering most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Five clear favourites, two joint market leaders and one co-favourite (of four) have scored in recent years.  14 of the 26 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period, whilst I am duty bound to remind you that the 4/6 favourite Sayif finished last of eleven eight years ago.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

9-3-4 (9 ran-good to soft)

5-1-2 (8 ran-soft)

6-5 (5 ran-soft)

2-1 (6 ran-soft)

1-4-11 (10 ran-good)

3-7-2 (8 ran-good)

4-2-1 (10 ran-good to soft)

12-5-2 (11 ran-good)

8-4-1 (12 ran-good)

3-6-9 (9 ran-heavy)

2-7-4 (8 ran-soft)

4-6-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-7-6 (9 ran-good)

6-10-1 (8 ran-heavy)

6-2-5 (10 ran-soft)

8-5-2 (8 ran-soft)

8-2 (7 ran-heavy)

8-3-2 (10 ran-good)

2.40: Three and four-year-olds have won eight of the last 12 renewals, with four-year-olds leading 5-3 in the process, albeit any junior raiders would have come to the 2013 gig on a four timer had any relevant runners been declared!  That’s the vintage stats done and dusted, with my short list comprising of SOIE D’LEAU, MY NAME IS RIO and DUNGANNON this time around.  DUNGANNON is attempting to win the race for the third time in four years, one of the successes being gained when emerging from stall four, with ‘trap two’ being the relevant berth on this occasion.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to TITHONUS.

Favourite factor: Six of the last 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

6-2-10-12 (18 ran-good to soft)

4-7-22-1 (19 ran-soft)

16-3-12-17 (19 ran-soft)

22-9-8-21 (21 ran-soft)

10-17-9-6 (20 ran-good)

1-15-18-20 (21 ran-good)

16-9-7-21 (20 ran-good to soft)

16-22-8-3 (20 ran-good)

15-7-8-4 (17 ran-good)

3-16-11-6 (21 ran-heavy)

13-6-4 (13 ran-soft)

1-9-7 (14 ran-good to firm)

6-14-8 (13 ran-soft)

1-14-10 (13 ran-heavy)

1-4-13-21 (18 ran-soft)

7-9-13 (14 ran-soft)

8-3-1 (9 ran-heavy)

15-14-6-4 (22 ran-good)

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

2/5—Humidor (both successes gained on good ground)

1/3—Robot Boy (good)

3/8—Dungannon (2 x soft & good to soft)

3.15: Three-year-olds have won ten of the last 18 renewals (the last two winners at 14/1 and 9/4 were included in my mix) and I simply could not believe that Argus was the only junior raider twelve months ago before justifying favouritism at 9/4.  11 of the last 13 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3 which definitely brings TO BE WILD and UAE PRINCE into the overnight equation.  HUGE FUTURE is rated as the main threat to my pair of selections, albeit Saeed Bin Suroor’s raider sits two pounds above the ‘superior weight barrier’.

Favourite factor: Three clear favourites have scored alongside a joint market leader via the last 18 renewals of this event.  Eight of the 20 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Only two favourites have prevailed during the last 11 years, whilst five winners were returned in double figures ranging in odds between 10/1 & 28/1.

Record of the courses winners in the fourth race:

1/5—Forgotten Hero (good to soft)

1/2--Ruwasi (good)

1/2--Argus (good to soft)

 

3.50: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners of this Racing Post Trophy event during the last 15 years.  Aidan has declared three of the ten runners on this occasion, though I’m inclined to think at least one of the ‘home runners’ should beat the best of Aidan’s trio which I believe will (surprisingly) be FINN MCCOOL.  Those English raiders I talked of will hopefully prove to be RIVET and SIR DANCEALOT in a race that lacks depth from my viewpoint.  RIVET looked a little tapped for toe in the ‘Dewhurst’ the other week whereby this additional furlong can extend the good impression given when capturing the ‘Champagne’ earlier this autumn.

Favourite factor: 10 of the last 18 favourites have won this last Group 1 event of the season on these shores, though just two of the other eight market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

3-6-7 (8 ran-soft)

8-6-9 (11 ran-soft)

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7-1 (7 ran-soft)

6-5 (5 ran-good)

3-8-6 (10 ran-good)

9-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-3-6 (15 ran-good)

6-9-11 (12 ran-good)

1-7 (7 ran-heavy)

5-7-2 (8 ran-soft)

4 (4 ran-good to firm)

2-8-1 (9 ran-soft)

3-5 (6 ran-heavy)

9-10-5 (10 ran-soft)

8-2-6 (9 ran-soft)

4-1 (6 ran-heavy)

4-7-1 (8 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Rivet (good)

4.25: The last 13 winners carried a maximum of 9-4 whereby three horses are eliminated from my thoughts, others being ‘saved’ via claiming pilots.  KING OF SWING, HE’S MY CRACKER and BRIYOUNI are offered against the field in the belief that this trio will land the dividend between us for them, if we are live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Just two of the last 12 renewals has been won by a market leader, with only four of the last 13 favourites having secured toteplacepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Record of trainers relating to this year’s stats on Town Moor (including level stake profits/losses) - with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Saturday – stats compiled before Friday’s sport was contested:

7 runners—Richard Fahey (5/68 – loss of 24 points)

6—Tim Easterby (2/11 – loss of 21 points)

6—Kevin Ryan (1/26 – loss of 24 points)

5—Richard Hannon (1/37 – loss of 26 points)

5—Mark Johnston (3/41 – loss of 31 points)

3—Karl Burke (3/24 – Profit of 46 points)

3—Robert Cowell (0/5)

3—William Haggas (5/20 – loss of 1 point)

3—Aidan O’Brien (0/7)

3—David O’Meara (6/52 – loss of 7 points)

3—Hugo Palmer (3/11 – Profit of 6 points)

2—Charlie Appleby (8/20 – Profit of 19 points)

2—Andrew Balding (0/12)

2—David Barron (3/18 – Profit of 21 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (4/17 – loss of 1 point)

2—John Gosden (8/30 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Rae Guest (0/2)

2---Micky Hammond (0/2)

2—Charlie Hills (1/18 – loss of 16 points)

2—Sylvester Kirk (0/3)

2—Brian Meehan (0/10)

2—Paul Midgley (2/18 – slight profit)

2—David Nicholls (0/7)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (1/9 – loss of 1 point)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

109 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newbury: £81.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 unplaced – 3 unplaced

Cheltenham: £557.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Kelso: £72.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £180.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Doncaster overview - relating to the juvenile events at 3.50 & 5.00 – 5 year trainer record – stats complied before Friday’s sport was contested:

2.05:

6/43—Charlie Hills (Hilario)

9/77—Richard Hannon (Khafoo Shememi – Tomily – Grizzel)

1/3—William Muir (Nuclear Power)

9/41—Charlie Appleby (Timeless Flight)

2/60—Kevin Ryan (Whirl Me Round)

No runners—Micky Hammond (Angel Meadow)

8/76—Mark Johnston (Comedy School)

4/11—Andrew Balding (Rosie Briar)

0/9—Slyvester Kirk (Simmie)

3.50:

9/41—Charlie Appleby (Bay Of Poets)

0/2—Ger Lyons (Brutal)

No runners—David Menuisier (Contrapposto)

1/14—Aidan O’Brien (Finn McCool – The Anvil – Yucatan)

4.27—Brian Meehan (Raheen House)

8/26—William Haggas (Rivet)

0/9—Sylvester Kirk (Salouen)

0/9—David Elsworth (Sir Dancealot)

 

 

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