WETHERBY - OCTOBER 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £7.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 placed)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby:
Leg 1 (1.35): 5 (Apterix), 4 (Double W’s) & 2 (Holly Bush Henry)
Leg 2 (2.10): 5 (Miss Crick) & 6 (Pass The time)
Leg 3 (2.45): 2 (Ballyoptic), 3 (If In Doubt) & 5 (Oscar Rock)
Leg 4 (3.20): 1 (Cue Card) & 5 (Blacklion)
Leg 5 (3.55): 2 (Ozzie The Oscar), 8 (Largy Girl) & 1 (Mister Kit)
Leg 6 (4.30): 3 (Royal Vacation), 2 (Donna’s Diamond), 4 (Zeroshadesofgrey) & 1 (Clancy’s Cross)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.35: Brian Ellison snared a 107/1 treble on Thursday and there must be a chance that APTERIX can go close on behalf of the yard in this grade/company. ‘Local’ trainers will know that the race is there to be won with no ‘southern bullies’ encroaching in their part of the world in the opening event, with connections of DOUBLE W’S and HOLLY BUSH HENRY also hosting realistic dreams of owning the first winner on Wetherby’s big day of the year.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have won this event via just three renewals to date. The only market leader to miss out on a Placepot position was a 6/4 favourite which contested a win only event.
2.10: Wiltshire based trainers Neil Mulholland (PASS THE TIME) and Alan King (MISS CRICK) will fancy their respective chances of making their way back down south with a share of the swag in this event, with possibly only Dan Kelton’s midlands raider STEPHANIE FRANCES standing in their way. CARD GAME can become competitive until the taps are turned on close home, though it is then that I believe the first named trio (especially the front pair) will start to dominate.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners) via nine renewals to date. The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1, seven of which were sent off at odds of 7/2 or less.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
2.45: Although I obviously pay great respect to horses trained by Paul Nicholls, I don’t believe I have ever called ‘SILSOL’ ‘right’ if you catch my drift. When I leave the seven-year-old out of the equation he runs well – and vice versa. I guess we all have horses that trouble us and you might as well put your punting boots on now and back Jack Sherwood’s mount before the price tumbles, as I am going to swerve the so and so this time around. I prefer the likes of BALLYOPTIC and IF IN DOUBT whilst considering course winner OSCAR ROCK joining the pair in my Saturday permutation.
Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven renewals have been secured by favourites whilst fifteen of the last sixteen gold medallists were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.
Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
1/1—Oscar Rock (good to soft)
3.20: Last year’s winner CUE CARD looks set to score again given the absence of more obvious threats in a race which lacks a little depth. Joe Tizzard (assistant trainer) was interviewed at the beginning of last week and assured anyone listening that their ten-year-old is in rude health just now and it could take a bad fencing mistake to bring about his downfall here and I for one would not like to see that happen. I would like to have BLACKLION on my side from an each way angle, with the Twiston-Davies representative thoroughly living up to his name by refusing to admit defeat until the winning post is reached. A winner of three of his seven chasing assignments to date, I expect the seven-year-old to run another game race, albeit to no avail from a win perspective. The race has lost some of its potential edge with Coneygree failing to turn up for the gig. Hopefully, WAKANDA can go well for local supporters.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last seventeen years. Twelve of the eighteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period.
Record of course winners in the ‘Charlie Hall’:
1/1—Cue Card (soft)
3.55: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals (including seven of the last twelve) whilst five-year-olds have notched eight victories in 'recent' times. Five-year-olds appear to have the edge this time around, especially with OZZIE THE OSCAR and LARGY GIRL having been declared. Eight-year-old beaten favourite MISTER KIT is preferred to the four-year-olds, the pick of which should prove to be Zipple Back.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 18 years, whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 11/1 (five years ago). 13 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the extended study period.
4.30: When four runner ‘win only’ events rear their ugly heads on a Saturday afternoon (especially in the novice chase sector) I can be seen running for cover from miles away, and this event finds yours truly in exactly that position. Hoping to be in the wonderful position of being in the bar cheering on the horse with the least Placepot units involved, I will still state the order of preference as ROYAL VACATION, DONNA’S DIAMOND, ZEROSHADESOFGREY and CLANCY’S CROSS but hoping to have reached the last leg successfully, I’m putting up the white flag on this one from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Only two of the five favourites have finished in the frame (one winner) in the Placepot finale.
Record of the course winner in sixth event:
1/1—Royal Vacation (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wetherby card on Saturday with 5 year stats alongside profit/loss ratios. These stats were compiled before Friday’s sport at the track was contested:
3—Micky Hammond (15/165 – loss of 56 points to level stakes)
3—Philip Hobbs (6/29 – loss of 8 points)
3—Malcolm Jefferson (12/77 – loss of 7 points)
3—Graeme McPherson (2/14—Profit of 8 points)
3—Colin Tizzard (4/7 – Profit of 17 points)
2—Ben Case (0/11)
2—Rebecca Curtis (0/2)
2—Chris Grant (7/86 – loss of 23 points)
2—Alan King (7/38 – loss of 16 points)
2—Neil King (0/12)
2—Neil Mullholland (5/14 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Paul Nicholls (6/17 – slight profit)
2—Sue Smith (29/193 – loss of 64 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (6/36 – loss of 19 points)
2—Mark Walford (4/28 – Profit of 9 points)
+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
51 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newmarket: £876.10 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Ascot: £221.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Ayr: £30.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Chelmsford: New meeting