Placepot pointers – Saturday October 8

NEWMARKET - OCTOBER 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £118.60 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 9 (Gravity Flow), 11 (Mise En Rose) & 13 (Symposium)

Leg 2 (2.20): 14 (Aimez La Vie), 1 (Romantic View) & 7 (Tara Celeb)

Leg 3 (2.55): 1 (Best Solution) & 6 (Rodaini)

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Churchill) & 6 (South Seas)

Leg 5 (4.10): 26 (The Cashel Man), 30 (Moonmeister), 9 (Nakeeta), 24 (Win Place And Sho) & 10 (Blue Rambler)

Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Fly At Dawn) & 11 (Wings Of Eagles)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.45: William Haggas saddled four consecutive winners of this event between 2007/10 and the trainer has offered the green light to his in-form three-year-old fillies GRAVITY FLOW and SYMPOSIUM who look sure to figure prominently on behalf of the team.  Three-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals for good measure, statistics which also bring KASSIA and (particularly) MISE EN ROSE into the equation.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last six contests, whilst eight of the twelve market leaders during the last decade finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—Secret Hint (good)

Nursery record for 2016 of represented trainers – stats complied before Friday’s sport was contested:

4/10—Charlie Appleby (Romantic View)

2/11—Ralph Beckett (Amabilis)

0/1—Charlie Fellowes (High On Love)

2/6—Simon Crisford (Muthmira)

4/32—Karl Burke (Seduce Me)

2/8—Michael Bell (Parsnip)

5/28—Mick Channon (Tara Celeb & Harmonise)

0/2—Robert Eddery (Fire Palace)

0/7—Andrew Balding (Night Law)

6/36—David Evans (Fastnet Spin)

0/3—Sir Michael Stoute (Textured)

2/8—David Simcock (Island Vision)

8/87—Richard Hannon (Flying North)

9/85—Richard Fahey (Aimez La Vie & Honourable)

0/1—Dr Jon Scargill (Quick Thought)

2.20: Charlie Appleby has saddled second and fourth placed horses in this competitive two-year-old handicap thus far and his top weight ROMANTIC VIEW is short listed following a fine effort (only beaten a length and a half off the same mark) over course and distance a fortnight ago.  That said, five of the six horses to have claimed Placepot positions (including both winners at 16/1 & 10/1) have carried a maximum burden of 8-9, stats which support the chances of HARMONISE and AIMEZ LA VIE down towards the foot of the handicap.  Loitering in the middle of the weights sits Mick Channon’s unbeaten raider TARA CELEB who along with MUTHMIRA also make it into my overnight mix.

Favourite factor: Just one of the four favourites has claimed a Placepot position (silver medallist) via two renewals this far.

2.55: Three renewals of the Autumn Stakes have passed since a favourite obliges as you can plainly see below though that said, the last six market leaders have all finished in the frame.   A few of the represented leading trainers have failed to win this Group 3 event despite 26 renewals, including the illustrious names of Sir Michael Stoute and Aidan O’Brien.  Saeed Bin Suroor’s BEST SOLUTION does not seem able to run anything but a decent race and from an each way/Placepot perspective, Saeed’s Kodiac colt could be the solution. Saeed saddled the winner back in 2007 and with the team right back in form (four of his last nine runners had won at the time of writing), William Carson might enjoy his ‘finest hour’.  More logical winners include RODAINI and ZAINHOM I guess but with ‘nice stories’ in the air (Hereford’s re-emergence as a racecourse), few would deny William a big race victory wearing the blue silks of Godolphin.

Prices of win and placed horses (exact science):

2015: 4/1-15/8*-9/2

2014: 10/1-33/1-11/4*

2013: 15/2-6/5*-16/1

2012: 5/2**-5/2**-7/1

2011: 8/1-5/1-11/8*

2010: 33/1-9/1-7/2

2009: 9/1-15/2-9/2

2008: 9/4*-11/4-4/1

2007: 4/7*-16/1-5/1

2006: 6/4*-25/1-4/1

2005: 20/1-13/8*-9/1

3.30: CHURCHILL and LANCASTER BOMBER are attempting to become Aidan O'Brien's fourth winner of the 'Dewhurst' between them during the last eight years.  The pair is listed in order of overnight preference and I will also go against the second named raider with SOUTH SEAS who has done little (if anything) wrong this season.  BLUE POINT and (possibly) SEVEN HEAVENS are dangers, the first named Godolphin raider having proved a tough nut to crack in his first year at school.  This is a particularly interesting renewal of this Group 1 event.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last ten renewals, whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last eleven years.

4.10: Recent weight, starting price and Cesarewitch age trends have been shot to pieces during the last few years (I try and be as honest as possible) whereby I am less than confident about the outcome this time around.  That said, eight of the last twelve Placepot positions have been claimed by horses drawn 12 or higher, statistics which include 66/1 and 50/1 winners.  Out of interest, five of the last six winners have carried a maximum weight of 8-11.  I’m offering five horses against the field from a toteplacepot perspective, namely THE CASHEL MAN, MOONMEISTER, NAKEETA, WIN PLACE AND SHO and BLUE RAMBLER.  I doubt that I will become involved in trying to name the winner come sun up.

Record of the course winners in the Cesarewitch:

1/3—Oriental Fox (good)

1/2--Shrewd (soft)

1/1—Star Rider (soft)

1/2--Grumeti (goodO

Prices of win and placed horses:

2015: 50/1-7/1-9/1-16/1

2014: 10/1-25/1-5/1*-16/1

2013: 66/1-20/1-10/1-20/1

2012: 66/1-7/1*-9/1-14/1

2011: 25/1-16/1-20/1-14/1

2010: 16/1-33/1-50/1-14/1

2009: 9/2*-14/1-16/1-16/1

2008: 50/1-15/2-10/1-7/2*

2007: 14/1-33/1-6/1**-25/1

2006: 9/2*-25/1-100/1-25/1

2005: 10/1-20/1-50/1-25/1

2004: 16/1-10/1**-50/1-33/1

2003: 12/1-33/1-50/1-8/1

2002: 12/1-16/1-66/1-12/1

2001: 14/1-66/1-33/1-66/1

2000: 11/1-40/1-9/2*-10/1

1999: 7/1-50/1-25/1-100/1

1998: 11/1-14/1-13/2-10/1

1997: 16/1-5/1*-12/1-10/1

4.45: We have this simple juvenile event to assess if we are to land the pot at ‘Headquarters’ on Saturday if we survived the ‘Cesarewitch’ !  Course winner FLY AT DAWN demands to be included in my Placepot permutation ahead of the likes of WINGS OF EAGLES, CORONET and STAR ARCHER.  Best of luck!

Favourite factor:  Favourites have won five of the last ten contests, whilst every winner during the last eleven years scored at 9/1 or less.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Fly At Dawn (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

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Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday – stats compiled before Friday’s sport was contested:

5—Andrew Balding (1/16 at Newmarket this season – loss of 10 points)

5—Richard Fahey (0/26)

5—William Haggas (4/17 – exactly level on the year)

5—Mark Johnston (5/48 – Profit of 8 points)

5—Aidan O’Brien (4/20 – Profit of 19 points to level stakes)

4—Charlie Appleby (7/26 – Profit of 13 points)

4—Mick Channon (3/24 – loss of 8 points)

4—John Gosden (10/49 – loss of 8 points)

3—Richard Hannon (5/47 – loss of 11 points)

3—Hughie Morrison (0/6)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (4/28 (loss of 3 points)

3—Saeed Bin Suroor (3/17 – loss of 14 points)

3—Roger Varian (2/27 – loss of 5 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (0/18)

2—Simon Crisford (0/7)

2—David Evans (1/6 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Ian Jardine (0/2)

2—Alan King (0/2)

2—Tony Martin (---)

2—David Pipe (0/1)

2—Sir Mark Prescott (0/2)

2—David Simcock (1/13 – loss of 10 points)

2—Ian Williams (0/2)

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

104 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £326.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

Hexham: £61.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

York: £777.30 – favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Newcastle A/W: This is a new A/W meeting

 

Newmarket overview - relating to their juvenile events at 2.20 – 2.55 – 3.30 – 4.45

5 year record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket:

2.20:

12/52—Charlie Appleby (Romantic View)

3/27—Ralph Beckett (Amabilis)

0/7—Charlie Fellowes (High On Love)

0/6—Simon Crisford (Muthmira)

3/15—Karl Burke (Seduce Me)

2/38—Michael Bell (Parsnip)

4/40—Mick Channon (Tara Celeb & Harmonise)

0/10—Robert Eddery (Fire Palace)

1/41—Andrew Balding (Night Law)

1/6—David Evans (Fastney Spin)

3/41—Sir Michael Stoute (Textured)

1/25—David Simcock (Island Vision)

9/79—Richard Hannon (Flying North)

3/42—Richard Fahey (Aimez La Vie & Honourable)

0/1—Dr Jon Scargill (Quick Thought)

2.55:

10/43—Saeed Bin Suroor (Best Solution)

1/25—James Tate (Law And Order)

7/76—Wuilliam Haggas (Lockheed)

14/84—Mark Johnston (Montataire)

3/27—Ralph Beckett (Pleaseletmewin)

0/6—Simon Crisford (Rodaini)

1/6—David Evans (Sea Fox)

7/44—Roger Varian (Soloman’s Bay)

8/39—Aidan O’Brien (The Anvil)

3/41—Sir Michael Stoute (Zainhom)

3.30:

12/52—Charlie Appleby (Blue Point)

8/39—Aidan O’Brien (Churchill & Lancaster Bomber)

7/76—William Haggas (Rivet)

12/81—John Gosden (Seven Heavens)

1/41—Andrew Balding (South Seas)

10/43—Saeed Bin Suroor (Thunder Snow)

4.45:

4/40—Mick Channon (Akkadian Empire)

14/84—Mark Johnston (Bear Valley & Permian)

12/81—John Gosden (Cunco & Coronet)

7/44—Roger Varian (Defoe)

9/79—Richard Hannon (Euginio)

12/52—Charlie Appleby (Fly At Dawn)

1/41—Andrew Balding (Genetics)

1/20—Peter Chapple-Hyam (Redicean)

6/35—Hugo Palmer (Star Order)

8/39—Aidan O’Brien (Wings Of Eagles)

7/66—Charlie Hills (Arwa)

 

 

 

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