Placepot pointers – Saturday September 10

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £175.90 (7 favourites - 4 winners -1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Majeste), 1 (D'bai) & 5 (Thunder Snow)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Double Up), 15 (Captain Colby), 9 (Red Pike) & 17 (Shamshon)

Leg 3 (3.10): 7 (The Happy Prince), 4 (Breton Rock) & 9 (Kentuckyconnection)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Idaho) & 5 (Muntahaa)

Leg 5 (4.20): 12 (Maths Prize) & 9 (Mount Moriah)

Leg 6 (4.50): 8 (Up In Lights). 1 (Third Tome Lucky) & 5 (Can't Change It)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: I hope that you earned at least a part of the 3,990 points of Placepot profit on Friday via my permutation.  It is disappointing in the extreme that just six trainers have taken up the challenge of saddling the Group 2 'Champagne' winner this season (only nineteen entries now during the last three years which narrowed to sixteen by flag fall), with Richard Hannon (MAJESTE), Charlie Appleby (D'BAI) and Saeed Bin Suroor (THUNDER SNOW) having won the last seven renewals between them.  The trio are listed in marginal order of preference at the overnight stage.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 18 years, whilst 12 of the 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

2-3 (6 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-good)

5 (4 ran-good to soft)

1-5 (5 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

3-6 (6 ran-good)

2-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

7-8 (7 ran-soft)

9-10-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

8/6 (dead heat)--(7 ran-good to soft)

3-2-9 (10 ran-good to firm)

2-4 (6 ran-good)

8-2-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-5-9 (8 ran-good to soft)

4-8-2 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

8-6-2 (8 ran-good)

4-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

2.35: Five-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals of the 'Portland', whilst four-year-olds have claimed three of the last four contests.  The last 11 winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12, whilst middle to high numbers have dominated in recent years as you can see for yourself below.  Indeed, only three horses drawn in the lowest three stalls have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 10 years when 40 opportunities have been up for grabs. Putting the stats and facts together creates a short list of DOUBLE UP (drawn 16/22), CAPTAIN COLBY (12), RED PIKE (13) and SHAMSHON (17).  The overnight reserve nomination as awarded to FINAL VENTURE (18).

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last 18 years, which is a perfectly respectable ratio given the competitive nature of this event.  Level stake punters would have shown a profit of £600.00 for a one hundred pound investment on market leaders during the study period.  Nine of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  12 of the last 15 winners were returned at odds ranging between 11/1 and 20/1.

Draw factor (five and a half furlongs):

10-15-1-2 (10 ran-good)

15-9-21-11 (20 ran-good)

12-11-14-17 (21 ran-good to soft)

21-18-12-16 (20 ran-good)

15-7-16-19 (21 ran-good to firm)

7-6-16-8 (22 ran-good)

16-22-2-17 (22 ran-good to firm)

18-9-14-21 (21 ran-soft)

21-11-14-12 (21 ran-good to firm)

5-22-7-4 (21 ran-good to firm)

13-1-8-12 (22 ran-good)

15-22-8-9 (22 ran-good)

20-16-11-2 (22 ran-good)

9-16-19-14 (22 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9-16 (22 ran-good)

16-20-22-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

10-14-8-3 (21 ran-good)

6-22-19-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in race two: 

1/5--Move In Time (good)

2/4--Humidor (good & good to firm)

1/2--Red Pike (good)

1/4--Hoofalong (good to firm)

1/1--Mukaynis (good to firm)

3.10: If the going changes to just good to soft following the anticipated rain overnight and into the morning, conditions might prove perfect for BRETON ROCK for reasons best explained by the information below regarding the only course winner in the field.  If the going becomes softer/heavier, THE HAPPY PRINCE would have to enter the equation, whilst if the clouds swerve Town Moor, KENTUCKYCONNECTION could be an interesting win and place alternative option.

Favourite factor: Ten of the 13 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

7-4-9 (15 ran-good)

1-6 (7 ran-good)

10-9-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-6-2 (8 ran-good)

4-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

8-11-6 (12 ran-good)

6-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-5-1 (9 ran-soft)

1-6 (6 ran-good to firm)

1-3-2 (9 ran-good)

2-8-5 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-1-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

9-1-4 (9 ran-good)

Doncaster record of runners in the third race:

1/2--Breton Rock (good to soft)

3.45: Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the St Leger four times during the last 15 years, with IDAHO, HOUSES OF PARLIAMENT and SWORD FIGHTER all boasting claims on this occasion.  The trio is just about listed in order of preference at the time of writing, though the forecast rain will obviously make a big difference if the negative 'met men' (now just how politically incorrect isthat phrasing?) are to be believed. MUNTAHAA is the likeliest home winner from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor:  Nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last 19 years.  18 of the 21 favourites have finished in the frame during the study period.

4.20: The usual tough Nursery event to assess on the St Leger card does not seem to get any easier from year to year but thankfully, numbers are not as high as usual here whereby I can make a fairly confident call from a Placepot perspective that MATHS PRIZE and MOUNT MORIAH should give us a good run for our collective monies.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

4.50: Three and four-year-olds have both won four renewals of the toteplacepot finale during the last eleven years, with just two contests escaping their grip on the contest. BANKSEA would have been on my radar but for the worrying demise of Bermondsey from Luca Cumani's stable the other day.  It only took about 50 yards for Luca's raider to be going quite well in front before seemingly collapsing in a heap with all chance gone in the flash of a light.  Luca is one of several leading players this year who has suffered from one virus or another, which makes me redirect to the likes of UP IN LIGHTS, THIRD TIME LUCKY and CAN'T CHANGE IT on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years.  Six of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame (exact science - as in all cases on this page) during the study period.

Doncaster record of runners in the toteplacepot finale:

1/6--Dinkum Diamond (soft)

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Saturday (stats compiled before Friday's sport was contested):

5--Aidan O'Brien (0/2 Doncaster this season)

4--Mark Johnston (3/32 - winners at 7/2-9/4*-4/5*)

4--David O'Meara (6/48 - winners at 14/1-12/1-9/2-9/2-15/8*-7/4*)

4--Kevin Ryan (1/23 - winner at 11/4**)

4--David Simcock (3/12 - winners at 7/2**-5/2-Evens*)

3--Tim Easterby (2/41 - winners at 16/1 & 5/1)

3--John Gosden (6/26 - winners at 4/1-4/1*-7/2-11/4-9/4-2/1*)

3--Richard Hannon (1/30 - winner at 10/1)

2--Charlie Appleby (7/15 - winners at 12/1-6/1-3/1-3/1**-11/10*-Evens*-3/10*)

2--George baker (0/5)

2--Andrew Balding (0/10)

2--Ralph Beckett (4/15 - winners at 4/1-3/1-3/1-13/8*)

2--Henry Candy (1/2 - winner at 4/1)

2--Mick Channon (1/5 - winner at 8/1)

2--Luca Cumani (3/11 - winners at 3/1-3/1-10/11*)

2--Michael Easterby (4/17 - winners at 16/1-5/1-4/1*-7/2**)

2--Richard Fahey (5/66 - winners at 20/1-13/2-5/1-5/1-13/8*)

2--James Fanshawe (0/8)

2--William Haggas (4/18 - winners at 9/2-4/1-15/8-7/4*)

2--Charlie Hills (1/16 - winner at 8/15*)

2--Paul Midgley (2/16 - winners at 10/1 & 13/2)

2--Jamie Osborne (1/3 - winner at 5/1)

2--Roger Varian (6/17 - winners at 7/1-6/1-13/8-13/8*-11/10*-8/13*)

2--Bryan Smart (0/4)

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £58.70 - 8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced

Chester: £178.30 - 10 favourites - 4 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £166.10 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced

Musselburgh: £3,172.60 - 6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced

 

Doncaster overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.00 & 4.20 (stats compiled before Friday's sport was contested)

2.00:

9/39--Charlie Appleby (D'bai)

0/1--John Ryan (Grey Britain)

9/73--Richard Hannon (Majeste)

7/25--William Haggas (Rivet)

7/23--Saeed Bin Suroor (Thunder Snow)

2/59--Kevin Ryan (Tommy Taylor)

4.20:

0/2--Jamie Osborne (Harbour Master)

0/3--Roger Charlton (Maths Prize)

14/107--Richard Fahey (Tenerity)

6/30--John Gosden (Khalidi)

4/10--Andrew Balding (Drochaid)

0/3--Stuart Williams (Stellar Surprise)

1/19--Ed Dunlop (Oceanus)

0/8--Sylvester Kirk (Arborist)

3/29--Ralph Beckett (Mount Moriah)