Placepot pointers – Saturday September 24

NEWMARKET - SEPTEMBER 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £19.50 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Blue Illusion), 9 (Neshmeya) & 10 (Queen Of Time)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Best Of Time) & 6 (Montataire)

Leg 3 (2.55): 3 (Lady Aurelia) & 5 (Queen Kindly)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Blue Point) & 5 (Mehmas)

Leg 5 (4.10): 32 (Interconnection), 22 (Erik The Red), 18 (Ode To Evening), 28 (Very Talented) & 31 (American Artist)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Romantic View), 12 (Harmonise) & 10 (Tonahutu)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Charlie Appleby appears to have his team back in good form whereby BLUE ILLUSION is expected to figure prominently at the first time of asking.  That said, I hear good reports about NESHMEYA and a potential each way/Placepot type in QUEEN OF TIME.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to MESHAYKA.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events thus far.

2.20: Mark Johnston has a typically tigerish inmate in MONTATAIRE who heads the three runners with official marks thus far, though BEST OF DAYS and (possibly) DOUGLAS MACARTHUR look dangerous rivals.  BEST OF DAYS might prove to be the value for money call though as far as odds are concerned, a win and place play on Mark’s Cape Cross representative should prove fruitful if you can secure an each way price.  That said, this ‘dead eight’ event would need to remain ‘intact’ for me to consider that last option.

Favourite factor:  Six favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the 24 market leaders reached the frame (exact science) during the study period.

2.55: LADY AURELIA will face contrasting conditions compared to the easy ground when Wesley Ward’s scorched to a seven length success in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot in the middle of a hat trick completed thus far from as many starts. Dangers look thin on the ground however, though there Is no knowing exactly how good QUEEN KINDLY could turn out to be.  That said, the ground is surely be the main danger to the selection who looked something out of the ordinary at the Berkshire venue in June.  Roly Poly looks the only other potential winner in the line-up, though Aidan O’Brien’s raider look well exposed now.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the study period, whilst 12 of the 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.  The last ten winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.

3.30: Three of the last five winners have scored at 25/1--22/1--8/1, notwithstanding the defeat of the 1/2 favourite (Ivawood) two years ago. BLUE POINT should take the beating here however, the ‘Gimcrack’ winner having hosed up at York on his latest assignment. Charlie Appleby’s raider arguably has to improve again to turn the form around with the Coventry Stakes runner up MEHMAS who more than deserves his place in the field. MEHMAS is far more exposed however, whereby I expect BLUE POINT to score, whilst offering an alternative each way option in MUBTASIM.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the 'Middle Park' during the last eleven years, whilst seven of the thirteen favourites during the period secured toteplacepot positions</p>

4.10: 12 of the last 13 winners of the ‘Cambridgeshire’ have carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Five of the first seven horses home in 2012 were drawn twenty or higher (the same ratio from stalls 17+ in 2013) and the draw stats below suggest unless the going is soft, horses from higher numbers tend to hold an edge.  INTERCONNECTION is the second last horse named in the betting in the ‘trade press’ which I find interesting, especially with trainer Ed Vaughan having recently strung together some of his best figures in recent times.  Not too many trainers record a 31% strike rate during a three month period, but those are Ed’s figures since the end of June via eleven winners.  INTERCONNECTION is unbeaten (albeit via just one run) on the course, whilst Josephine Gordon continues to offer fine value for money for her three pound claim.  Throw in the fact that five-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals (the Mount Nelson raider also qualifies via the weight stats) and you have some cast iron reasons for supporting this potential 50/1 chance!  ERIK THE RED is definitely ‘next best’ from my viewpoint, whilst ODE TO EVENING, VERY TALENTED and AMERICAN ARTIST are added into the Cambridgeshire mix.  Best of luck!

Favourite factor:  Four favourites have won the ‘Cambridgeshire’ in the last 18 years which is a respectable record given the competitive nature of this event.  Eight of the 23 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor--nine furlongs):

2015: 7-1-17-4 (34 ran-good)

2014: 11-28-14-10 (31 ran-good to firm)

2013: 4-28-3-20 (31 ran-good to firm)

2012: 21-7-2-12 (33 ran-good)

2011: 31-5-24-27 (32 ran-good to firm)

2010: 3-20-15-22 (35 ran-soft)

2009: 12-6-34-24 (32 ran-good to firm)

2008: 15-35-34-27 (28 ran-good to firm)

2007: 25-16-31-19 (34 ran-good to firm)

2006: 20-27-21-28 (33 ran-good to soft)

2005: 3-5-6-11 (30 ran-soft)

2004: 33-29-31-18 (32 ran-good)

2003: 19-8-5-12 (24 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the Cambridgeshire – none of the other five (juvenile) events have course winners involved on the Placepot card:

1/3—GM Hopkins (good)

1/7—Educate (good to firm)

1/10—Master The World (good)

2/9—Bronze Angel (good & good to firm)

1/2--Oasis Fantasy (good)

1/4--Stipulate (good)

1/1—Third Time Lucky (good)

1/4--Zhui Feng (good to soft)

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1/6—Bancnuanaheirann (good to firm)

1/2--Secret Art (good to soft)

1/4--Knight Owl (good to soft)

1/3—Goodwood Mirage (soft)

1/1—Interconnection (good to firm)

4.45: Three of the last eight winners have carried 9-7 though putting that stat aside for one minute, it’s worth noting that the other seven gold medallists carried maximum weights of 8-12.  ROMANTIC VIEW is the horse on 9-7 this time around, whilst the pick of the six runners who qualify via the other end of the handicap should prove to be HARMONISE and TONAHUTU who both represent some each way value for money.

Favourite factor: The last four market leaders have finished out of the frame since last favourite scored, the third successful market leader during the course of the previous six years before the good record went ‘belly up’.

 

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £294.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Hamilton: £197.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Haydock: £38.40 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Market Rasen: £ 70.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Ripon: £231.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Newmarket overview -

5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector in the relevant events at 1.50, 2.20, 2.55, 3.30 & 4.45:

1.50:

0/5—Charlie Fellowes (Beauchamp Opal & Crimson Rosette)

12/48—Charlie Appleby (Blue Illusion)

11/78—John Gosden (Elas Ruby & Smart Together)

7/61—Charlie Hills (Forever Excel & Neshmeya)

0/8—Jane Chapple-Hyam (How’s Lucy)

0/18—Peter Chapple-Hyam (Lulu The Rocket)

3/37—Sir Michael Stoute (Meshaykh)

0/11—Henry Candy (Queen Of Time)

0/6—Conrad Allen (Ronni Layne)

0/1—Owen Burrows (Talaayeb)

3/33—Ed Dunlop (The Lacemaker)

2.20 (‘Royal Lodge’):

No runners—John Patrick O’Brien (Arcarda)

12/48—Charlie Appleby (Bay Of Poets)

4/32—Hugo Palmer (Best Of Days)

7/33—Aidan O’brien (Douglas Macathur & The Anvil)

0/1—Michael Dods (Kings Gift)

13/79—Mark Johnston (Montataire)

1/5—David Evans (Sea Fox)

2.55 ‘Cheveley Park’):

7/33—Aidan O’Brien (Brave Anna & Roly Poly)

No runners—Michael O’Callaghan (Holy Cat)

No runners—Wesley A Ward (Lady Aurelia)

1/24—David Simcock (Pellucid)

3/36—Richard Fahey (Queen Kindly)

3.30 (‘Middle Park’):

12/48—Charlie Appleby (Blue Point)

7/33—Aidan O’Brien (Intelligence Cross & Peace Envoy)

4/32—Hugo Palmer (Koropick)

0/2—Ger Lyons (Medicine Jack)

9/73—Richard Hannon (Mehmas)

0/3—Simon Crisford (Mokarris)

7/72—William Haggas (Mubtasim)

10/42—Saeed Bin Suroor (Silver Line)

13/79—Mark Johnston (The Last Lion)

4.45:

12/48—Charlie Appleby (Romantic View)

7/61—Charlie Hills (Arwa)

3/36—Richard Fahey (Clef & Lady In Question)

2/38—Michael Bell (Parsnip)

0/3—Simon Crisford (Salamah)

13/79—Mark Johnston (La Casa Tarifa)

3/37—Sir Michael Stoute (Blushing Rose)

0/3—Ed Vaughan (Tonahutu)

9/37—Richard Hannon (Suffragette City)

4/37—Mick Channon (Harmonise)

1/1—David Barron (Mama Africa)

6/43—Richard Varian (Pichola Dance)

 

 

 

 

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