SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £172.10 (4 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unpalced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Kasbah), 1 (Monsieur Joe) & 4 (Majestic Hero)
Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Maser) & 5 (Persur)
Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Intimation), 11 (On Her Toes) & 12 (Tisbutadream)
Leg 4 (3.35): 9 (Shabbah) & 10 (Across Dubai)
Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Cheeky Rascal), 1 (Lethal Lunch) & 4 (Barford)
Leg 6 (4.45): 11 (Najashee), 9 (High Draw) & 10 (Al Nafoorah)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Seven of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1, whilst the relevant nine events have failed to register a single winning favourite. The weight stats eliminate the bottom four horses (of ten in total) from my enquiries. Shamson was returned as the well beaten favourite in this event twelve months ago and it might be worth taking the six-year-old on with KASBAH, MONSIEUR JOE and MAJESTIC HERO this time around.
Favourite factor: Only two of the last eight favourites have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/3—Shamson (good to firm)
1/1—Majestic Hero (soft)
2/2—Bahamian Sunrise (good & soft)
2.25: I gave 33/1 winner VINATAGER an each way squeak before registering his recent soft ground success though of course, the ground will be much quicker this time around. It remains to be seen how David Menuisier’s Mastercraftsman colt handles the conditions, though there was plenty to like about the manner of his success on the July course at Newmarket. That said, Charlie Appleby’s MASER found some trouble in running but was still good enough to snare the bronze medal in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, having previously won on debut at Goodwood on good ground. PURSER also has to enter the equation following a sound effort when scoring at Newbury on his first day at school.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won the Solario Stakes during the last decade, whilst nine gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 11/2.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/2—Connect (good to soft)
3.00: Nine of the last 11 gold medallists in this Atalanta Stakes (for fillies and mares) have hailed from the three-year-old ranks, with vintage representatives at 8/5 this time around before the form book is consulted. Sir Michael Stoute has his team in fine form and having won three of the last eight renewals of this Group 3 event, Michael has a definite chance of improving his recent tally having offered INTIMATION the green light. That said, connections of the three-year-old course winners ON HER TOES and TISBUTADREAM will not mind the fast ground for their respective representatives.
Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have prevailed, as have five of the last eight, albeit those stats include a 13/8 market leader who shared the spoils via a dead heat back in 2013.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/1—On Her Toes (good to firm)
1/1—Tisbutadream (good to firm)
3.35: The last five winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 whereby the top five horses in the handicap might not represent value for money in the contest, if you follow the recent weight trend. SHABBAH is on offer at 11/1 at the time of writing and I have already tipped my win and place toe into the murky waters, believing that Ryan Moore’s mount can gain a Placepot position at the very least. Others to catch my eye include ACROSS DUBAI and hat trick seeker THUNDERING BLUE.
Favourite factor: Five renewals had slipped by since a winning favourite had been recorded before last year’s 9/4 market leader repaired some of the damage on behalf of favourite backers. Only two of the last six favourites have secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/4—Master Carpenter (good to firm)
1/1—Euginio (good to firm)
1/2—Silver Ghost (good to soft)
4.10: The weight stats reveal that the bottom two horses in the handicap might struggle to score as the last seven gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 8-13 to victory. That leaves us with six horses to assess, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CHEEKY RASCAL, LETHAL LUNCH and BARFORD. The trio are listed in marginal order of preference, with Livingstone’s Quest only overlooked because of the heavy ground which was in evidence when he scored at Ffos Las last time out.
Favourite factor: Only two of the eight favourites have troubled the judge from a Placepot perspective since back to back favourites obliged in 2011/12. Indeed, those two successful market leaders are the only favourites to have won during the last decade.
4.45: Owen Burrows can do very little wrong just now and the trainer has seemingly found a fine opportunity for his Invincible Spirit colt NAJASHEE to successfully follow up his recent fast ground Haydock. Karl Burke had made a habit of raiding this venue successfully this term, whereby the chance of HIGH DRAW is respected, whilst AL NAFOORAH completes my trio against the other nine contenders in the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Five of the last six winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, with three clear market leaders having scored alongside a 9/2 joint favourite during the period.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Grand Inquisitor (good to firm)
2/18—Directorship (good to firm & good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed (where relevant) by their winners on the corresponding (August 20th) card year:
4—John Gosden (6/4* last year)
3—Eve Johnson Houghton
3—Sir Michael Stoute
2—Andrew Balding (9/4*)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
77 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Beverley: £8.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Chester: £48.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Hamilton: This is a new meeting
Newton Abbot: £56.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Chelmsford: This is a new meeting