HUNTINGDON – DECEMBER 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £89.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon:
Leg 1 (12.25): 5 (Occasionally Yours) & 1 (Sunnytahlateigan)
Leg 2 (12.55): 2 (Western Ryder) & 12 (Royal Ruby)
Leg 3 (1.25): 7 (Tintern Abbey), 6 (Reigning Supreme) & 3 (Keeper Hill)
Leg 4 (2.00): 9 (Chatez), 8 (One For Billy), 4 (Barman) & 1 (Exitas)
Leg 5 (2.30): 2 (Top Notch) & 3 (Charbel)
Leg 6 (3.00): 7 (Outofthisworld) & 3 (Gregeelagh Girl)
Suggested stake: 192 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.25: The ground might prove to be slightly softer than ideal for four time course winner OCCASIONALLY YOURS but either way, Kevin Dowling’s seven pound claim can ensure that Alan Blackmore’s thirteen year old hat trick seeker can become competitive at the business end of proceedings. Kevin boasts an 18% strike rate via five winners which suggests that OCCASIONALLY YOURS could be the value for money call in the contest. The Sandown form of SUNNYTAHLIATEIGAN stands close inspection in this company/grade.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Huntingdon on Sunday.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
4/11—Occasionally Yours (4 x good)
12.55: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date with three of their number standing out from the crowd on this occasion, namely WESTERN RYDER, ROYAL RUBY and (to a fashion) MELANGERIE. The trio is listed in order of preference, whilst obviously respecting the chance of Dan Skelton’s four-year-old Leicester winner DESTRIER.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite, whilst two of the four market leaders have secured Placepot positions.
1.25: A fascinating contest whichever way you view the race, notwithstanding the point that Nick Henderson potentially saddles three of the seven declarations. I’m expecting REIGNING SUPREME to come out best of the Seven Barrows raiders, though whether he will be able to beat TINTERN ABBEY and KEEPER HILL remains to be seen. The concession of weight ought to stop Work In Progress in his tracks, though only because of the class of his rivals, rather than his lack of ability.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Huntingdon programme.
Record of the course winner in the third contest:
1/1—Keeper Hill (good to soft)
2.00: EXITAS is also entered in a race at Sandown on Saturday at the time of writing, whereby you will have to excuse the fact that I am adding Phil Middleton’s runner into the mix here, even though there has to be a chance that his number on the race-card will be transferred onto the favourite if declared a non runner, such are the Placepot rules in place. Fortunately I have dumbed down some of the other races whereby the Placepot permutation is not too heavy, even with four ‘runners’ in the mix in this event. I speculated that CHATEZ would run a big race on his comeback on the flat in October, whereby his inclusion here is an obvious one, despite the fact that BARMAN and ONE FOR BILLY should also run their races.
Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the only successful market leader scored at odds of 2/1. Three of the last five winners have scored in double figures ranging between 14/1 and 16/1. Only one of the last seven market leaders has secured a Placepot position.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1/1—Star Foot (good to soft)
1/3—Captain Felix (good)
2.30: Nicky Henderson has saddled the winners of two of the last three renewals of this event when represented and TOP NOTCH should ensure that the record is enhanced here, notwithstanding the fact that last year’s winner JOSSES HILL also represents the Seven Barrows stable. The fencing of TOP NOTCH at Ascot recently was a sight to behold, with the six-year-old almost hurdling the fences which as we know can be dangerous. That said, the obstacles are not too tough at Huntingdon and this track should play right up to his strengths. CHARBEL would be the win and place/forecast alternative call if you want to go down that route, should Kim Bailey’s runner turn up for this gig instead of the one at Sandown on Saturday. Writing this in the dead of night very early on Saturday morning, I’m having to guess a little, though If Kim Bailey has opted for the Esher venue, I’m happy to let the would be non-runner transfer onto the favourite TOP NOTCH.
Favourite factor: Only two favourites have won via the last nine renewals of this Grade 2 Peterborough Chase though that said, the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 15/2. Five of the last ten favourites have claimed Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/1—Josses Hill (good to soft)
3.00: Four-year-olds have won all three renewals thus far with OUTOFTHISWORLD expected to become Harry Fry’s fifth winner from just fifteen runners during his short career to date. That said, Fergal O’Brien is the only represented trainer to have won this race before and his six-year-old raider GRAGEELAGH GIRL is proven in this Listed grade which suggests that she should make the frame again, despite there being others winners in the contest.
Favourite factor: The three market leaders thus far have secured one gold and one silver medal alongside Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Huntingdon card on Sunday – followed by their seasonal stats (in brackets) & five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
8 runners—Nicky Henderson (2/6 – loss of 2 points) – 25/81 – loss of 14 points
4—Dan Skelton (1/16 – loss of 6 points) - 18/108 – loss of 47 points
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/6 – Slight loss) – 7/70 – loss of 42 points
2—Kim Bailey (2/6 +9) – 18/78 +40
2—Jack R Barber (First runners of his career at Huntingdon)
2—Jennie Candlish (No runners this season) – 2/23 – loss of 12 points
2—Harry Fry (No runners this season) – 4/14 – Slight loss
2—Tom George (1/5 – loss of 2 points) – 6/31 – loss of 7 points
2—Warren Greatrex (0/2) – 6/36 – loss of 17 points)
2—Anthony Honeyball (No runners this season) – 0/7
2—Paul Nicholls (1/3 – Slight loss) – 7/22 +9
2—Fergal O’Brien (1/7 – loss of 3 points) – 6/46 – loss of 8 points
2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/14 – Slight profit) – 27/104 +15
2—David Pipe (0/2) – 7/38 – loss of 1 point
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Kelso: £84.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced