Southwell - Sunday 10th January
12.40: All five winners have carried a minimum weight of 8-12, statistics which eliminate four of the 10 runners (including one via a potential jockey claim) if we take the figures seriously. Last year's winner LUCKY MARK qualifies via the weight stats, set to carry a pound less than when scoring 12 months ago. LEITH BRIDGE and Ann Stokell's recent course and distance winner SPEIHGTOWNS KID are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings. LUCKY MARK was beaten by Ann's raider in the relevant (January 2) contest but is just about weighted to gain his revenge.
Favourite factor: Six of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions via five renewals this far. Three winning favourties have emerged, with a top priced winner at 8/1 being recorded to date.
Southwell record of course winners in the opening event:
1.10: Hollie Doyle keeps the ride aboard recent course and distance winner AGUEROOO, representing the Richard Hannon yard which had secured victories with three of their last six runners before Saturday's sport was contested. Monsieur Bond stock act well on this Firesand surface and I fancy AGUEROOO to land a four timer, chiefly at the expense of MODEST and ILZAM. MODEST is weighted to gain revenge on the selection, though I am inclined to stick with winning form until the run is broken.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won two of the five contests though it's worth noting the three favourites whilst failed to oblige, also missed out on toteplacepot positions.
Southwell record of course winners in the second race:
1.40: Only two renewals in this event which suggests that a 'trend' is barely believable though that said, four-year-olds have won both renewals via 55.5% of the total number of runners. Only David Barron is live to the 'brief edge' whereby lone vintage representative PLAY NICELY is the first name on the overnight team sheet. The only horse in the line-up to have scored more than once at the venue, connections of David's Naaqoos gelding are likely to fear PERCY'S PRINCESS and course and distance winner DARK DIAMOND more than most.
Favourite factor: Both (5/4 & 2/1) favourites have failed to secure Placepot position thus far, behind winners which snared gold at 5/2 and 7/1.
Southwell record of course winners in the third contest:
1/4--Big Storm Coming
2.10: Seven of the eight horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far have carried nine stones or more, statistics which include all three winners. PERFECT FIT, course and distance winner AGE OF INNOCENCE and ELUSIVITY are expected to figure prominently and the trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing. 10 of Tony Coyle's 13 winners at Southwell during the last five years have emerged via his older horses (four or more), statistics which have produced over 22 points of level stake profits, whereby PERFECT FIT receives the marginal nomination from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Favourites have dominated the event having won all three contests at odds of 10/3 - 15/8 - 5/4.
Southwell record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
1/5--Age Of Innocence
2.40: Six-year-olds have won both races as successful 9/4 second favourites to date, with course and distance winner CAPTAIN LARS being the lone vintage representative this time around, whilst defending his (1/1) unbeaten record at the venue. With such limited figures involved, I could hardly suggest that I am defending a 'trend' in this instance, though I constantly look for 'edges', even where this is little history to work with. DUBAI HILLS defends really impressive figures here at Southwell as you can see below, whilst PHILBA completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders has finished in the frame to date, though only from a silver medal perspective.
Southwell record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/1--Boots And Spurs
3.10: Only Michael Appleby of the represented trainers is turning out regular winners just now whereby JACOBS PILLOW is the call via the relevant a process of elimination in a race which should not prove difficult to win. Two of the three course and distance winners are expected to offer the sternest challenges, namely ABI SCARLET and SPITFIRE.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 8/13 market leader duly obliged.
Southwell record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
3/19--Pull The Pin
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com</p>
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Southwell card on Sunday:
1--David C Griffiths
1--Daniel Mark Loughnane
1--Ralph J Smith
57 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends in recent years:
2015: £3.70 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed)
2014: £22.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
2012: £463.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
2011: £36.00 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced)
2010: £210.90 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend during the study period: £147.30
Favourite details: 15 winners – 6 placed – 9 unplaced (30)