FONTWELL - SEPTEMBER 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £112.20 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell:
Leg 1 (2.20): 4 (Kentford Heiress), 5 (Poetic Lady) & 2 (Miss Spent)
Leg 2 (2.50): 9 (Kiruna Peak), 10 (Newt) & 7 (Ulysses)
Leg 3 (3.25): 4 (Code Of Law) & 6 (Humbel Ben)
Leg 4 (4.00): 4 (Workbench) & 1 (Resolution Bay)
Leg 5 (4.35): 1 (Jackblack), 8 (Thisonetime) & 2 (Amadoue)
Leg 6 (5.10): 4 (Bestwork) & 1 (Shady Glen)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: This meeting marks the start of the NH season (proper) for yours truly, given that I choose this fixture over the competitive racing at York year on year. KENTFORD HEIRESS won this event last year and being only marginally worse off this time around (thanks to the booked claimer), there seems no logical reason to desert the three time (good ground) course winner. Seamus Mullins has a decent enough record at Fontwell in general terms, whereby the 13/2 quote this morning offers each way value at the very least. Neil Mulholland has saddled nine winners since the start of August under the NH code (21% strike rate) whereby the declaration of his Worcester winner POETIC LADY demands respect, whilst MISS SPENT cannot be overlooked either.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame thus far, both horses having snared silver medals.
Record of the course winner in the first race:
3/6—Kentford Princess (3 x good)
2.50: Jonjo O’Neill sends just the one horse to Fontwell today, though Tidal Watch will need to run better than at Worcester recently to become competitive. More likely (not obvious) winners include KIRUNA PEAK and NEWT. Ralph Beckett adds some interest having entered ULYSSES though readers should not get too carried away with the declaration as Ralph’s record under this code stands at 2/69 to date. One of his four previous runners at Fontwell made the frame however whereby all hope is not lost, from an each way/Placepot perspective at least.
Favourite factor: 17 of the 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (11 winners), whilst 16 of the last 18 winners were returned at odds of 9/2 or less.
3.25: Eight of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1 which narrows the field down from nine to six, with CODE OF LAW and HUMBEL BEN preferred to Saffron Prince at the time of writing. I have just looked at the radar which suggests that rain should not arrive (dangerous statement) at the course by the time this race is contested which will suit connections of CODE OF LAW. A winner here last time out under fast conditions, Code Of Law has also added two silver medals to his tally via just the four runs on similar ground to date.
Favourite factor: Four of the last 10 renewals have fallen the way of favourites of one type or another, whilst five of the eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the courses winner in the third contest on the card:
1/4—Code Of Law (good to firm)
1/2—Humble Ben (good)
4.00: WORKBENCH should have his conditions and though the stable of Dan Skelton has gone a little quiet this month, his 35% strike rate via 28 winners during the two previous months suggests that it would be churlish to write off Dan’s early season form just yet. Better off via the official figures here having finished second in the race last year, WORKBENCH has to be considered at the general offer of 8/1 this morning, at least from a Placepot perspective. Philip Hobbs has saddled three of his last eight runners to winning effect whereby RESOLUTION BAY is considered the main threat, especially and bits and pieces of support are beginning to emerge as dawn breaks over the City of Bristol.
Favourite factor: Search parties were still out looking for the three beaten favourites in this contest before last year’s 3/1 market leader prevailed.
Fontwell record of runners in the fourth event:
3/6—Workbench (3 x good)
2/7—Royal Battalion (good to firm & good to soft)
1/8—Occasionally Yours (soft)
4.35: Five-year-olds have won the last seven renewals and yet just two vintage representatives have been declared this time around! JACKBLACK is the pick of the relevant pair, albeit Brett Johnson’s raider only beat two opponents when successful over course and distance last time out. THISONETIME and AMADOUE are likely to present challenges at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 13 market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst favourites have won three of the last eight renewals. Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1.
Fontwell record of runners in the fifth race:
1/2—Jackblack (good to firm)
1/2—White Valient (good)
5.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13, a stat which unfortunately only eliminates one horse (Kings Cross) from my enquiries this time around. BESTWORK appears to be the logical solution in our last race because as a winner of three of his last four races, the ground should offer no problems for connections today. Two of the three successes were gained under this afternoon’s projected (good) going, whilst the other recent win was registered on good to soft whereby even if rain arrives, Charlie Longsdon’s six year-old should not be inconvenienced. SHADY GLEN will no doubt turn in another consistent effort from a Placepot perspective, especially as the top weight has a five pound claimer in the saddle to aid and abet his chance. Rockchasebullett is the alternative option to consider.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 16 favourites have finished in the frame to date (four winners), whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1.
Fontwell record of runners in the Placepot finale:
2/5—Lee Side Lady (soft & heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fontwell card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Dan Skelton (1/3 – slight loss)
5—Neil Mulholland (4/13 +7)
4—Seamus Mullins (3/12 +11)
3—Chris Gordon (2/13 – loss of 5 points)
3—Gary Moore (0/25)
2—Tom Lacey (No previous runners)
2—Charlie Longsdon (1/3 +2)
2—Michael Madgwick (No previous runners)
2—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)
2—David Pipe (1/4 +2)
2—Phuil York (No previous runners)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
York: £18.40 – 7 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 2 unplaced