EXETER – FEBRUARY 11
Last year’s corresponding Placepot dividend:
2017: £32.10 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Blu Cavalier) & 11 (Samburu Shujaa)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Vision Des Flos), 1 (Djingle) & 3 (Mercenaire)
Leg 3 (3.05): 4 (Charming Zen), 2 (Lovenormoney) & 9 (Present Times)
Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Pete The Feat), 8 (Cloudy Bob) & 1 (Harry Topper)
Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Elegant Escape), 5 (Ramses De Teillee) & 1 (Pobbles Bay)
Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Brelan D’As) & 1 (Le Rocher)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: It’s hardly surprising that two brave bookmakers are offering even money in the dead of night, given that 6/4 is available on the exchanges at the time of writing about BLU CAVALIER. Either way, the Kayf Tara gelding should cope with conditions as well as most, though Paul Nicholls has failed to win this prize since the old king died. Barring the way this time around is SAMBURU SHUJAA from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Five renewals have passed without a winning favourite being recorded since back to back market leaders obliged in 2010/11.
2.30: Five-year-olds have won six of the last seven renewals, with DJINGLE and VISION DES FLOS potentially representing the vintage to good effect on this occasion. Some decent winners have won this prize, including Finian’s Oscar and Native River from Colin Tizzard’s yard whereby the second named raider gets the marginal call. Course winner MERCENAIRE is not without claims either.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have claimed six of the last eight renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner scored at 9/2.
Record the course winner in the second race:
3.05: To state that OVERLAND FLYER is ‘easy to back’ on the exchanges is akin to stating that we have all heard quite enough about Brexit thank you very much! Layers can’t give the Nicholls raider away for LOVENORMONEY with dawn still nearly three hours away. Nicky Henderson saddles his only runner on the card with a chance, namely CHARMING ZEN, whilst LOVENORMONEY and PRESENT TIMES make up my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had finished out with the washing before last year’s successful 11/4 market leader made up for lost time.
Record the course winners in the third on the card:
1/9—Dancing Shadow (soft)
1/2—Present Times (soft)
3.35: Another in the series of the popular races for veterans for steeplechasers hoping to extend their successful careers, albeit at a lower level than once was the case. Charlie Longsdon has a few outstanding ‘pensioners’ in his care and the trainer certainly knows how to target these events whereby PETE THE FEAT is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective. CLOUDY BOB and HARRY TOPPER should also give win and place investors a decent run for their collective monies.
Favourite factor: Both favourites had prevailed until last year’s 9/2 market leader let the side down by finishing out of the frame.
Record the course winner in the fourth event:
2/3—Harry Topper (good to soft & heavy)
4.10: I fully expect POBBLES BAY to outrun his 8/1 trade press quote, albeit the Evan Williams raider might do well to lower the colours of the likes of ELEGANT ESCAPE and RAMESES DE TEILLEE from a win perspective in what has become a ‘win only’ contest.
Favourite factor: Only three of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two gold medallists. That said, two of the beaten favourites perished in ‘win only’ events.
4.40: BRELAN D’AS looks to have been well placed by Paul Nicholls, especially with the hood re-applied here. Paul’s seven-year-old should take the beating in this grade/company. Rayvin Black remains a reasonable marker in this type of event, though LE ROCHER is the call in terms of a danger to the tentative selection.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame (two winners) in the Placepot finale to date.
Record the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Le Rocher (soft)
1/1—Rayvin Black (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Exeter card on Sunday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
6 runners—Colin Tizzard (6/27 – loss of 6 points) – 21/155 – loss of 68
4—Paul Nicholls (4/17 – loss of 7) – 39/132 – loss of 33
4—David Pipe (2/27 – loss of 12) – 25/198 – loss of 61
3—Philip Hobbs (3/20 – loss of 2) – 42/206 – loss of 36
3—Evan Williams (5/15 +19) – 13/55 +23
3—Nick Williams (3/7 +1) – 17/42 – loss of 17
2—Sue Gardner (4/23 +2) – 15/116 – loss of 26
2—Mark Gillard (0/5) – 2/54 – loss of 39
2—Nigel Hawke (2/11 +9) – 7/77 – loss of 30
2—Richard Hobson (First runners at Exeter this season) – 1/1 +14
2—Anthony Honeyball (1/4 +2) – 9/48 +24
2—Jeremy Scott (1/18 – loss of 10) – 1/117 – loss of 74
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
54 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year:
Ayr: This is a new fixture on the calendar