SANDOWN - NOVEMBER 12
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £703.40 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (12.45): 4 (Bastien), 1 (Capeland) & 5 (Paddys Runner)
Leg 2 (1.20): 1 (Challonial), 7 (Touch Kick) & 10 (Bally Gilbert)
Leg 3 (1.50): 3 (Irish Prophecy) & 7 (Second Time Around)
Leg 4 (2.20): 2 (Might Bite) & 3 (As De Mee)
Leg 5 (2.55): 6 (Sword Of Fate), 8 (Garo De Juilley) & 7 (Wolfcatcher)
Leg 6 (3.30): 1 (Double Ross) & 8 (Pete The Feat)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.45: Gary Moore ruled the Sandown venue with a stunning ratio of 10/25 (profit of 65 points to level stakes) the season before last which was set up when landing a 1529/1 treble on this corresponding card two years ago. Gary endured a season he will want to forget at the track last year however, as the stats at the foot of the column will reveal. Mr Fickle represented the yard in this event twelve months ago when finishing with only one behind him, with ten pound claimer James Nuttall retaining the ride. I expect Gary to have better luck later on the card, preferring the likes of CAPELAND and BASTIEN this time around. The latter named six-year-old is the only vintage raider here in an attempt to maintain their 100% record in the race following three renewals. There is a threat of rain arriving late morning into the early part of the afternoon in the Esher area which could disrupt the form book. That said, PADDYS RUNNER (placed on the corresponding card last year) should not be affected either way whereby the five-year-old is added into the equation.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites to date has claimed a Placepot position, without winning the relevant contest.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/2—Mr Fickle (soft)
1.20: Harry Fry secured a 32/1 treble yesterday via just six runners whereby the team will have plenty of confidence going into today’s sport. A winner of two of his five races to date, Harry’s CHALONNIAL is their lone representative today and providing he takes to fencing, the five-year-old should figure prominently with any rain in the area likely to increase his chance of winning. TOUCH KICK appears to be the main danger, though money has come for BALLY GILBERT overnight which adds interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite could only finish second in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
1.50: Alan King has failed to visit the area reserved for winning connections for the last six years in any race at the corresponding fixture, though that poor run (by Alan’s high standards) could end here via his Market Rasen winner SECOND TIME AROUND in a race which might not prove difficult to win. That said, Emma Lavelle’s IRISH PROPHECY was all the rage on the exchanges in the dead of night whereby the trade press quote of even money might be difficult to obtain towards flag fall. It’s interesting to note that some of the top trainers have swerved this event and the possibility of meeting up with Emma’s raider could be the reason why. The chance of LEAPAWAY cannot be entirely ignored with Philip Hobbs having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect, notwithstanding an 80/1 silver medallist during the period!
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/15 market leader duly obliged.
2.20: Nicky Henderson will be glancing up at the skies as he travels to Sandown today I’ll wager. His star representative MIGHT BITE is a winner of seven of his twelve races to date but his one assignment on bad ground brought about a defeat. The forecast suggests that heavy rain (if any at all) is doubtful whereby the ton in hand he has of his rivals here should ensure success. These fences have brought about the downfall of many good horses in the past however and with two of his three rivals having already won here on soft ground, I doubt I will be in the queue to take odds of around 1/4 this afternoon, irrespective of whether we endure the wet stuff. AS DE MEE has won twice around here and looks to be the forecast call, if you want to play the race that way.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the eleven renewals during the last twelve years, in which nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 11/2.
Record of the course winners in the fourth event:
2/6—As De Mee (good to soft & soft)
1/1—Label Des Obeaux (soft)
2.55: Eight of the nine horses that have secured Placepot positions to date have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 and though three results hardly form a trend as such, I would rather have the figures on my side than against. The pick of the relevant horses in Sunday’s contest will hopefully prove to be SWORD OF FATE, GARO DE JUILLEY and WOLFCATCHER from the yard of Ian Williams who saddled last year’s winner, notwithstanding his great double via both codes yesterday. WENYERREADYFREDDIE makes his handicap debut and could yet be anything, though whether Nicky Henderson’s projected favourite will offer any value for money from a Placepot perspective here is open to plenty of doubt.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have snared Placepot positions by securing gold and silver medals thus far.
3.30: A typical Sandown Steeplechase which will create panic in the ranks should a non runner rear its ugly head before flag fall. DOUBLE ROSS looks the safest bet as far as our favourite wager is concerned, not that I would even attempt to name the winner in the Placepot finale. Ground conditions will not affect the Twiston-Davies raider either way, with connections possibly having most to fear from PETE THE FEAT and CREEVYTENNANT.
Favourite factor: The inaugural trio of 4/1 co favourites all missed out on Placepot positions in a short field contest. One of the two joint favourites subsequently obliged twelve months later, though that still leaves an unimpressive 1/5 ratio from a Placepot viewpoint to consider.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/8—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)
2/4—Vino Griego (good & good to soft)
1/4—Pete The Feat (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Sunday followed by stats at the course last season and the relevant profits losses accrued:
6 runners—Paul Nicholls (3/40 – loss of 21 points)
4—Nicky Henderson (11/42 – Slight loss)
4—Alan King (5/13 +5)
4—Gary Moore (2/32 – loss of 17 points)
4—Jonjo O’Neill (0/7)
4—Dan Skelton (0/6)
3—Charlie Longsdon (2/15 +9)
2—Stuart Edmunds (0/4)
2—Philip Hobbs (4/19 – loss of 5 points)
2—Graeme McPherson (0/2)
2—Neil Mulholland (2/12 +2)
2—Fergal O’Brien (3/9 +9)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/14 +18)
2—Evan Williams (0/7)
2—Ian Williams (3/9 +12)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
69 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ffos Las: £230.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced