LEICESTER - AUGUST 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £32.70 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Lightoller), 4 (Who Told Jo Jo) & 2 (Peachey Carnehan)
Leg 2 (2.40): 4 (Perfect In Pink), 1 (Vuela) & 2 (Notice)
Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (African Blessing) & 2 (Red Trooper)
Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Dark Power) & 7 (Gaval)
Leg 5 (4.20): 5 (Dark Spec), 1 (Algam) & 4 (Cuban Heel)
Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Keepup Kevin), 3 (Aletaratalyoum) & 1 (Vibes)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: The seven winners have been returned at 25/1-20/1-15/2-5/1-9/2-9/2-13/8, whereby you might care to take a longer look at the race than you might have planned. Five of the seven gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 8-13 which goes against the two bottom weighed horses on this occasion. Percentage stats rule the waves here me thinks, with Silvestre De Sousa boasting a 32% ratio of winners during the last fortnight, whilst he rules the roost for Mick Channon via a 25% strike rate for the trainer via 11 winners this term. The pair team up with LIGHTOLLER who has been backed overnight which does not come as a surprise in this grade/company. 12/1 looks a tad too big about WHO TOLD JO JO who has won with moisture in the ground in the past, whilst the reverse is true of the odds on quote for PEACHEY CARNEHAN. I don’t doubt that Michael Mullineaux’s Cheshire based raider deserves favourite status here (trainer has won with two of his last eight runners), though 4/5 in places suggests that there is better value to be found.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one 13/8 winner.
2.40: I’m not quite sure how the layers rate good to soft winner PERFECT IN PINK as the ‘rag’ in the field, especially with Mick Channon being back to winning ways during the last few weeks. Win, lose or placed here, 8/1 looks a very reasonable price about another Channon/De Sousa raider on the card. There had to be a time in the season when the Luca Cumani troops started to rally and with two of Luca’s last three runners having won, now might be the right time to have faith in his representatives, one of which is VUELA, though a best price of 7/4 this morning hardly has yours truly champing at the bit to ‘get on’. Dave Simcock’s 50/1 Glorious Goodwood similarly sparked his team into better form whereby NOTICE also enters the mix with a half decent five pound claimer in the saddle.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—Perfect In Pink (good to soft)
3.10: Four-year-olds lead their juniors 12-5 from a win perspective in a race confined to the two vintages. Toteplacepot stats: Three-years-olds 17/102 (16.7%) - Four-year-olds 31/99 (31.3%) via 17 renewals to date. I correctly went against the trend last year by naming the 5/2 winning three-year-old, though I expect the race to revert to type here with the two four-year-olds holding decent chances this this time around, namely RED TROOPER and AFRICAN BLESSING. As long as the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact, this pair will surely get us through to the second half of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have prevailed, whilst 19 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, though it should be noted that horses have been beaten (from a win perspective) at odds of 1/2 and 4/6 during the study period.
Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/1—Major Cornwallis (good)
3.45: Horses carrying a minimum weight of 8-13 have secured 14 of the 17 available Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include six of the seven winners at 12/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-9/2-5/2**. Two horses are eliminated via the weight stats on this occasion or at least they should, as GAVAL otherwise holds decent course claims at the very least, given his perfect 2/2 record at Leicester, stats which include a soft ground victory. I will quietly include David Barron’s raider, especially as the trainer has won with three of his last nine runners. It would also be churlish in the extreme to ignore the claims of DARK POWER at the top of the handicap after excellent efforts when the word soft has featured in the going description. After just four races to date, Clive Cox’s Dark Angel can hardly be described as being exposed.
Favourite factor: The ten market leaders to date (via seven renewals) have produced just one gold medal, four of the silver variety and two bronze between them thus far, without claiming Placepot positions all of the time.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
2/2--Gaval (good & soft)
4.20: Pam Sly is one of the few trainers when instantly attracts the eye when would be ‘no hopers’ are included on a race card. Ever since Pam won the 1000 Guineas with Speciosa eleven years ago, I have learned to respect her outsiders and DARK SPEC catches the eye here in a race which might not prove difficult to win. I offered similar thoughts the other night before 33/1 Vintager scored for David Menuisier and at 20/1, there will be worse outsiders on the card than Pam’s Dark Angel colt who met with traffic problems on his first day at school at Yarmouth recently. The 33/1 quote in the trade press could be difficult to actually obtain if you fancy a saver on Pam’s raider, especially as Dark Spec is as short as 14/1 in places at the time of writing. That said, I don’t deny that more logical winners in the field include ALGAM and CUBAN HEEL, though both runners have had two chances to score thus far whereby their cramped odds (by comparison) fails to light the blue ‘touch paper’ on either count.
Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Leicester programme.
4.50: Pam Sly is the first name mentioned in dispatches here again, especially as there has been overnight support for soft ground winner KEEPUP KEVIN who might complete a headline busting double for the stable, even though a decent placed twosome would be acceptable at the odds on offer. Ed Dunlop has been gaining some compensation since losing a Glorious Goodwood race in the Stewards’ room the thick end of a fortnight ago, whereby the chance of ALEMARATALYOUM is respected alongside VIBES whose trainer Jamie Osborne is suffering from an 11% strike rate this season. That said, Jamie saddled a winner at Ascot yesterday suggesting that all is not lost this term.
Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 5/2 joint favourites secured a Placepot position without winning the event twelve months ago.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Richard Hannon (3/28 – loss of 8 points)
3—Michael Mullineaux (1/9 – Profit of 8 points)
2—David Barron (4/9 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Karl Burke (0/11)
2—Mick Channon (5/14 – Profit of 26 points)
2—Clive Cox (1/11 – loss of 2 points)
2—Richard Fahey (4/28 – loss of 2 points)
2—Steph Hollinshead (0/5)
2—Mick Quinn (0/4)
2—Derek Shaw (0/7)
2—David Simcock (0/2)
2—Pam Sly (loss of 1 point)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
47 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Windsor: £41.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced