WARWICK – MARCH 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £8,242.80 (8 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £604.15
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £840.13
Average Warwick Placepot dividend in 2016: £391.55 (4 meetings)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Warwick:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Belami Des Pictons) & 2 (Nansaroy)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Cresswell Breeze) & 4 (Alder Mairi)
Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (Just So Cool), 12 (Bourne) & 6 (Scales)
Leg 4 (3.40): 10 (Grove Silver), 12 (Emma Soda) & 14 (Loughalder)
Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Norse Light) & 5 (Ruperra Tom)
Leg 6 (4.50): 7 (Pentiffic) & 4 (Fredo)
Suggested stake: 144 bets to 20p stakes
2.00: I cannot start my analysis any other way than glorifying in the last two corresponding Placepot dividends which have paid £8,242.80 & £6,946.60! The Gods have been on the side of Venetia Williams this winter and no mistake. The rain has continued to fall in all parts of the country and once again, horses are asked to contend with heavy ground, a scenario that the majority of Venetia's horses act on, rather than 'enjoy' as some media commentators would have us believe!. BELAMI DES PICTONS appears to be another such inmate and only NANSAROY appeals as another potential winner in the field, if the newcomer to these shores fails to shine.
Favourite factor: One of the two odds on favourites via two divisions of the inaugural event won last year at 4/11 (the only successful market leader on the card), whilst search parties are still looking for the other 4/6 chance.
2.30: Three words such as mares, novice and steeplechase do not sit comfortably together though that said, favourites have a decent record in the contest as you can see below. Aces Over Eights would have been expected to outrun her odds but racing six pounds above her long handicap weight, even Kerry Lee might be hard pushed to win with her entry this time around. More logical winners in the line-up include CRESSWELL BREEZE and ALDER MAIRI.
Favourite factor: Favourites have secured six gold and one bronze medal to date, with only two market leaders having finished out with the washing.
Warwick record of course winners in the second race on t card:
3.05: The great Placepot dividend last year was always on the cards given that few people would have contemplated the 16/1-50/1-20/1 chances which filled the frame in this event. Fourteen of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more (including twelve of the last thirteen gold medallists) and though only one runner is ‘eliminated’ via the trends, all help is appreciated. Six-year-olds have secured four of the last nine renewals, yet vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence. JUST SO COOL has time on his side as a five-year-old and facing far older horses in general terms here, Aidan Coleman's mount should figure prominently. Others for the overnight mix include SCALES and BOURNE, two ten-year-olds who boast definite claims on the best of their form, especially the latter named Donald McCain inmate who once raced off a 35 pound higher mark than today's (105) official rating.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 18 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.
Warwick record of course winners in the third event:
1/2--Seas Of Green (C&D winner)
3.40: Eight of the last ten winners carried 11-4 or less which cuts the fourteen strong field in half if you believe in trends. Jennie Candlish has won with four of her last six runners, with GROVE SILVER racing from the 'superior' sector of the weights alongside two other declarations with win and place claims from my viewpoint, namely EMMA SODA and LOUGHALDER.
Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have prevailed during the last 18 years, each and every winner had scored at odds of 11/1 or less before last year's 33/1 gold medallist reared its ugly head. Only eight of the twenty three market leaders have reached the frame (exact science) during the study period.
Warwick record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/1--Streets Of Promise
2/4--Emma Soda (Dual C&D winner)
1/8--Incentivise (C&D winner)
2/6--Loughalder (Dual C&D winner)
4.15: Nine of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-12 and those that appeal from the relevant sector of the handicap include NORSE LIGHT, RUPERRA TOM and CRY WILD. The trio is listed in order of preference at the overnight stage. NORSE LIGHT will cope with the conditions well enough I fancy, whilst the six pound claimer Gareth Malone has already ridden two winners for trainer David Dennis.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last 13 favourites have won this event which in the context of a handicap hurdle event is a very decent record. Just two market leaders have failed to secure toteplacepot positions during the study period for good measure.
4.50: PENTIFFIC has won this event in each of the last two years and though the likes of FREDO and ARCTIC BEN will provide stern opposition likely as not, connections of PENTIFFIC can feel confident that they have a realistic chance of snaring the hat trick. FREDO would ideally prefer a longer trip I'll wager, whilst ARCTIC BEN is on the comeback trail following a strange effort last time when the pilot was content to take a furlong lead over the relevant rivals at one stage, a pace which could not be maintained before Hanry Daly's raider was pulled up. Previous form would put the twelve-year-old bang in contention however.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/10) winner.
Warwick record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
2/2--Pentiffic (Dual C&D winner)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Warwick card on Sunday:
5--Sophie Leech (Warwick stats this season: 0/9)
3--Henry Daly (1/8)
3--Kerry Lee (1/4)
3--Ian Williams (1/19)
2--Kim Bailey (2/16)
2--Jennie Candlish (0/1)
2--David Dennis (1/12)
2--Anthony Honeyball (1/3)
2--Graeme McPherson (2/5)
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/32)
2--Venetia Williams (1/20)
+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners