PLUMPTON – APRIL 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £388.50 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 98.3% units went through – 13/8 & 8/13*
Race 2: 49.6% of the remaining units when through – 11/10* (Win only event)
Race 3: 15.7% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 6/1 – 11/1 (2 x 7/2**)
Race 4: 63.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 5/2
Race 5: 24.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 12/1 (2/1)
Race 6: 15.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 & 14/1 (4/5)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Dancing Doug) & 5 (Six Gun Serenade)
Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Mr Jim), 9 (Micquus) & 3 (Little Jimmy)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Midnight Maestro), 4 (Wolfcatcher) & 3 (Ballygown Bay)
Leg 4 (3.55): 5 (Cap Horner) & 3 (Indian Castle)
Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Indian Reel), 8 (King Charlie) & 4 (Howlongisafoot)
Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Mr Muddle), 6 (Brother Bennett) & 5 (Yourholidayisover)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
2.15: Sam Thomas has taken some to time to reach double figures as a trainer (6% strike rate) but as eight of his ten winners have been gained in hurdle events, inmate DANCING DOUG has a second to none chance here from a Placepot perspective, given that I wouldn’t have a bet in the contest using your money. There has been some support (brave souls) for SIX GUN SERENADE overnight which suggests that Suzi Smith’s raider can emerge as the main threat to the tentative selection.
Favourite factor: The last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners of their respective events.
2.50: MR JIM is asked to repeat last year’s success under much slower conditions, though Tony Carroll’s raider cannot be ignored given the great from of the yard. Tony had produced 36 points of level stake profit via his current 5/7 ratio! MR JIM is Tony’s only runner on the day with his next inmate possibly taking up an assignment at Newmarket on the level on Tuesday. Emma Lavelle is a shrewd cookie and she has placed her new inmate MicQUUS to clever effect in this grade/company, whilst LITTLE JIMMY is consistent from a Placepot perspective around the ‘gaff tracks’.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader was one of two horses which failed to complete the course in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Record of the three course winners in the second race:
1/7—Gores Island (good)
1/1—Mr Jim (good to firm) – won this race last year
1/6—Remember Forever (good to firm)
3.20: Alan King was out of luck with his seven runners at Aintree though with four of them having reached the frame at 33/1, 25/1, 14/1 and 13/2, it cannot be said that the yard is comprehensively out of form. That statement bodes well for the chance of MIDNIGHT MAESTRO here, if only from a Placepot viewpoint. Others to consider include WOLFCATCHER and BALLYGOWN BAY in a half decent event by Plumpton standards. MIDNIGHT MAESTRO and WOLFCATCHER hail from the six-year-old vintage which has won four of the eight renewals of this race to date. Out of interest, you might also care to consider the merits of Gary Moore’s pair of outsiders (Searching and Justification) as the trainer has snared three of the last five renewals of this contest.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this contest (eight renewals), with the last six market leaders all finishing out of the frame, stats which include two pairs of joint jollies.
Record of the two course winners in the field:
1/1—Paddys Runner (good)
1/1—The Premier Celtic (good)
3.55: Seamus Mullis is only four short of winning 100 races at the ‘sister’ tracks of Plumpton and Fontwell in 27 years of training and gold medallist number 46 at Plumpton could be in the offing here with the trainer having offered the green light to his recent soft ground Taunton winner CAP HORNER. Some old south coast favourites line up in opposition however, the pick of them on this occasion possibly being INDIAN CASTLE who represents the relentless Ian Williams yard which offers so many good chances to inmates under both codes, such is the talent of the trainer in my considered opinion. INDIAN CASTLE attempts to become with fourth ten-year-old winner of this race in the last five years.
Favourite factor: Five of the last eight favourites have snared Placepot positions, statistics which includes four winners in recent years.
Record of the five course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2—Leo Luna (soft)
1/2—Holbrook Park (soft)
1/4—No Buts (heavy)
2/15—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)
3/14—Frank N Fair (good – good to soft – good)
4.30: Another trappy contest following the previous potential ‘dead eight’ event on the programme, with arguably INDIAN REEL, KING CHARLIE and HOWLONGISAFOOT standing out from the crowd. The latter named Chris Gordon raider enters my ‘last chance saloon’, whilst Fergal O’Brien appears to have found a good opportunity for INDIAN REEL to go close. That leaves KING CHARLIE to consider, especially with Suzy Smith (the Suzy with a ‘y’) having saddled two of her last five runners to winning effect, despite yesterday’s hike to Aintree having proved to be a fruitless journey.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, though five years have slipped by since the last of the two winning favourites prevailed.
Record of the two course winners in the fifth event:
1/5—Yukon Delta (good)
5.00: MR MUDDLE saves his best work for this venue given his three course victories on all types of surfaces, notwithstanding his five runner up efforts from just ten races at Plumpton down the years. BROTHER BENNETT and YOURHOLIDAYISOVER represent some each way appeal at around the 15/2 mark this morning in the dead of night.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (15/8) market leader duly obliged.
Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:
3/10—Mr Muddle (good to firm – good – soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.