SOUTHWELL – DECEMBER 17
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £56.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Southwell:
Leg 1 (12.25): 1 (Corner Creek), 3 (Silent Man) & 2 (Redmond)
Leg 2 (12.55): 6 (Rockandrollrambo), 7 (Cash Again) & 8 (Midnight Gem)
Leg 3 (1.30): 2 (Article Fifty) & 11 (Super Sid)
Leg 4 (2.05): 8 (First Assignment), 9 (Gunfleet) & 2 (Silver Kaif)
Leg 5 (2.35): 5 (Stepover), 1 (Midnight Silver) & 2 (Fool To Cry)
Leg 6 (3.05): 1 (Cabaret Queen) & 5 (Our Belle Amie)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.25: Seven of the eleven available Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-1, as have the last three winners of the race which were returned at 5/1, 10/3 & 5/2. CORNER CREEK won well here over a slightly shorter trip, despite the fact that today’s pilot dropped his whip during the closing stages. Wearing cheek-pieces for the first time that day, it remains to be seen if that was a one-off effort though Michael Scudamore deserves credit for finding another race which should not take a great deal of winning. SILENT MAN and REDMOND should offer better value for money than some here in naming this pair as the likely dangers to the selection.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites (via four renewals) have secured Placepot positions, albeit we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.
Record of the course winners in the opening race:
1/1—Corner Creek (good)
1/2—Global Domination (soft)
3/14—French Seventyfive (3 x good)
12.55: All four winners have carried 11-3 or more though unfortunately, that stat only eliminates two of the nine entries that are still due to face the starter at the time of writing. Ian Williams has won with both runners at the venue this season and the first of his two raiders on the card looks set to go close here, namely ROCKANDROLLRAMBO. Anyone who homes in on the fancied horses here however should look at the favourite stats below! Each way alternative options include CASH AGAIN and MIDNIGHT GEM.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have failed to claim Placepot positions to date, let alone win their respective events!
Record of the course winners in the second contest:
1/1—Barton Rose (soft)
1/10—Mondo Cane (soft)
2/24—That’s The Deal (good & good to soft)
1.30: Warren Greatrex has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect with the trainer having declared two runners on the Southwell card. The second inmate contests the 3.35 event (‘after we have gone off air’) following ARTICLE FIFTY who makes his debut over timber having won well in a bumper event at Uttoxeter last month. SUPER SID is taken to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: This is the first of a few new races on the Southwell card this afternoon.
2.05: FIRST ASSIGNMENT is the other Ian Williams runner on the card for Ian Williams, albeit the trainer’s last 15 runners have been beaten which is a sobering stat to offer, despite his 100% record at the track this season as previously mentioned. GUNFLEET looks the likeliest horse to benefit if Ian is to be denied here with trainer Emma Lavelle continuing to turn out regular winners. SILVER KAIF is the other potential gold medallist in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Another new race on the Southwell programme.
2.35: I cannot pretend that this course is one of my favourite venues but always attempting to be fair, this is an attractive potential ‘dead eight’ contest which is far from easy to assess which in theory, is the way all races should pan out. Relevant to their respective odds at the time of writing, the safest threesome to include in my permutation might prove to be STEPOVER, MIDNIGHT SILVER and FOOL TO CRY, considering that the trio all have decent amounts of potential investment wait to be accommodated in the positive queue on the exchanges in the dead of night.
Favourite factor: The three favourites thus far have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the fifth event on the card:
2/6—Stepover (2 x good)
1/2—Beyeh (good to soft)
3.05: I would have a degree of confidence in landing the Southwell ‘pot with just two options here, providing all five runners stand their ground in the contest. A non runner would take this event into ‘win only’ territory and if that should be the case by the time that your read this column, the race would be offered with a ‘health warning’ regarding the cash in your pocket. Upwards and onward in positive mode by naming CABARET QUEEN and OUR BELLE AMIE against the remaining trio.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race at Southwell on Sunday.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more on the Southwell card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/15 +6)
3—Tom George (2/13 – loss of 7 points)
3—Jamie Snowden (0/1)
2—Caroline Bailey (3/15 +1)
2—Kim Bailey (2/5 +10)
2—Jack R Barber (1/2 +3)
2—Brian Barr (1/2 +6)
2—Gillian Boanas (0/7)
2—John Cornwall (0/7)
2—Robin Dickin (No previous runners this season)
2—Johnny Farrelly (1/10 – loss of 5 points)
2—Warren Greatrex (1/2 +11)
2—Seamus Mullins (0/3)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/24 – loss of 5 points)
2—Oliver Sherwood (0/1)
2—Dan Skelton (5/26 – loss of 10 points)
2—David Thompson (1/10 – level profit/loss on the year)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/8 – loss of 2 points)
2—Ian Williams (2/2 +13)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
68 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year:
Chelmsford – This is a new (Additional) meeting