SALISBURY – JUNE 17
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £518.90 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 74.5% units went through – 4/6* - 14/1 – 16/1
Race 2: 25.5% of the remaining units when through – 12/1 – 4/1 – 25/1 (9/4)
Race 3: 20.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 12/1 – 12/1 (2/1)
Race 4: 28.7% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 9/2 – 16/1 (11/4)
Race 5: 58.2% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 10/11* - 6/1
Race 6: 21.7% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 4/1 – 16/1 (11/4)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury:
Leg 1 (2.25): 1 (Chikoko Trail) & 4 (Wicked Sea)
Leg 2 (2.55): 4 (Font Vert) & 10 (Cross My MInd)
Leg 3 (3.25): 4 (Gumriyah) & 8 (Wohileh)
Leg 4 (3.55): 1 (Buckingham), 6 (Magical Wish) & 5 (Khafooq)
Leg 5 (4.25): 4 (Cardsharp), 5 (Shabaaby) & 3 (Dancing Star)
Leg 6 (4.55): 4 (Blanchefleur), 1 (Silca Mistress) & 7 (Great Shot Sam)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.25: Mick Channon won with four of his first six runners at Salisbury this season (where else do you get this type of nonsense?) and though his subsequent seven raiders have been beaten at the track, the eye is drawn to his only runner on Sunday which is CHIKOKO TRAIL. The alternative option is pretty obvious with WICKED SEA having run well at this venue on Tuesday, particularly as Richard Hannon’s Zebedee filly could be considered ‘well in’ given that she will almost undoubtedly rise in the weights in the week ahead, providing that the maiden (after five assignments) does not disappoint from a Placepot perspective today. The reserve nomination is awarded to Sister Celine.
Favourite factor: Only two favourites (both returned at 3/1) have won during the last decade. That said, nine of the last ten winners scored at 9/1, whilst four of the last five market leaders have finished in the frame.
2.55: Ralph Beckett saddles two runners in the race which complicates things to a fashion, though I doubt that both inmates will finish out of the money in this grade/company. Silvestre De Sousa boasts a 31% strike rate riding three-year-olds for the stable during the last five years whereby I’m going against the projected favourite here by nominating FONT VERT over stable companion CROSS MY MIND on this occasion. If Ralph is to be denied, Acquirer is the likeliest joker in the pack from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 favourite duly obliged, the only successful market leader on the Placepot card.
3.25: With the benefit of two previous runs last year, John Gosden’s Shamardal filly GUMRIYAH will probably be good enough to win this event, especially as there has not been a great deal of support for WOHILEH from the Owen Burrows stable. Luca Cumani’s KONIGIN is proving just as easy to back in the dead of night which suggests that John’s filly should prevail, albeit at cramped odds. That said, it’s early doors on a particularly quiet Sunday as far as the markets are concerned, whereby it might not take a great deal of liquidity to shift the odds.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Salisbury card.
3.55: Well played to the Salisbury executive for pinning the great name of Peter Walwyn to this event, a decision that would have made racegoers out here in the west-country particularly happy. Peter’s finest hours were courtesy of his Epsom Derby and ‘King George & Queen Elizabeth’ winner GRUNDY of course, forever remembered in a great duel with Bustino in 1975. His other victories included the Dewhurst and the Irish Derby in a scintillating career during which Peter was as ever, humble to the last. Only five horses at that time had ever received a higher rating going into his three-year-old career which is probably worth recalling as much as ‘the race of the century’ as the Ascot event was called at the time. Upwards and onward however by suggesting that it would be appropriate if Sir Michael Stoue (KHAFOOQ) won this event, given that Michael was two years into his training career when Grundy made his first appearance on a racecourse. This is only Michael’s fourth juvenile runner of the season however (no winners to date), whereby a watching (Placepot) brief is as far as we might support the Kodiac representative this afternoon. For the record, Michael has saddled a dozen two-year-old winners at this venue from 100 representatives down the years. From a win perspective, BUCKINGHAM and MAGICAL WISH are preferred. Don’t be in too much of a hurry to ignore Cruck Railie (a 33/1 chance at the time of writing) as Ralph Beckett’s well touted raider can only improve on the effort shown on the first day at school.
Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders has secured a Placepot position without winning its respective event. That scenario unfolded here twelve months ago when this year’s 1,000 Guineas winner Billesdon Brook was touch off at odds of 10/11 for the Richard Hannon team. For the record. ‘BB’ was being beaten for the third successive occasion (twice as a market leader), finally scoring next time when losing her maiden tag before making rapid improvement as a three-year-old!
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
4.25: Recent winners of this Listed race include Sakhee’s Secret, Etlaala, Moss Vale, Libranno and Avonbridge. ’Team Hannon’ have won six of the last ten renewals which is a terrific record, especially as Richard was not involved in two of the ‘missing years’, whilst securing two silver medals and a bronze on other occasions. The problem we have this time around is that Richard is not represented on this occasion either, alongside the fact that a non-runner has already reared its ugly head whereby a ‘win only race’ could be on the cards. Accordingly I will offer three horses against the remaining pair, namely CARDSHARP, SHABAABY and DANCING STAR, though the trio is not listed in order of preference in a trappy contest.
Favourite factor: Ten of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (three successful market leaders), whilst the biggest priced winner to date was returned at 18/1 four years ago. Nine winners during the last fourteen years scored at a top price of 9/2.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1—Dancing Star (good to soft)
4.55: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last ten contests with vintage representative on offer at 3/7 before the form book is brought into the equation, with BLANCHEFLEUR, SILCA MISTRESS and GREAT SHOT SAM heading the seven representatives this time around according to the gospel of yours truly. Peace be with you….
Favourite factor: Five of the last eight favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which have produced three winners which were all returned at 13/8.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.