PLUMPTON – APRIL 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £22.80 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 76.0% units went through – 1/2* (Win only)
Race 2: 71.2% of the remaining units when through – 11/4 & 9/4*
Race 3: 35.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2, 5/2 & 9/1 (6/4)
Race 4: 58.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/3*, 7/2 & 10/1
Race 5: 98.7% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 & 4/7*
Race 6: 37.0% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1** & 9/1 (2/1**)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Mister Malarkey), 5 (Traffic Fluide) & 1 (Indian Hercules)
Leg 2 (2.45): 5 (Heurtevent), 2 (Finnegan’s Garden) & 3 (Champion Chase)
Leg 3 (3.15): 5 (Lickpenny Larry) & 1 (Crafty Roberto)
Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Vado Forte), 3 (Jaisalmer) & 6 (Early Du Lemo)
Leg 5 (4.20): 11 (Jumping Jack) & 7 (Pull Together)
Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (The Lion Dancer) & 4 (Two Hoots)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.15: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests and vintage representative MISTER MALARKEY seemingly has TRAFFIC FLUIDE to beat in the first race on the card. Both horses have failed to live up to early expectations however, whereby INDIAN HERCULES is added into the Placepot mix for insurance purposes.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won six of the last eight renewals, whilst nine of the last eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
1/1—Traffic Fluide (good to soft)
2.45: Six of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-10 and HEURTEVENT might prove to be the value for money call in a trappy contest from my viewpoint. Soft ground course winner FINNEGAN’S GARDEN demands respect in this grade/company, whilst CHAMPION CHASE in another potential winner in the field.
Favourite factor: Two of the last four winners have scored at 16/1 & 12/1, whilst five winners in total during the last twelve years have won at 9/1 or more. Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst six of the thirteen favourites secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the second event:
1/2—Finnegan’s Garden (soft)
3.15: Chris Gordon has won with his last two runners in this race and yet this is one of just two events on the card where the trainer is not represented! Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that LICKPENNY LARRY must be the first name on the team sheet, given that Tom Gretton’s raider receives between eight and twenty two pounds from his four rivals here on what is likely to be desperate ground. CRAFTY ROBERTO is offered up as the main threat despite his position at the top of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners in total scored at a top price of 9/2, whist three clear market leaders and one joint favourite obliged with five of the ten favourites finishing in the frame (exact science).
3.45: Five, six and seven-year-olds have won the last seven renewals between them and I fancy the trend will be extended this time around by the likes of VADO FORTE, heavy ground course winner JAISALMER and EARLY DU LEMO who only found one too good on his reappearance after a long break at Newbury nine days ago.
Favourite factor: Two clear and one joint favourite have won via eight renewals, with only four of the eleven market leaders having claimed Placepot positions. This was the race two years ago which decimated Placepot units in their thousands with a 16/1 winner scoring from a 20/1 chance in a ‘short field’ event. This was the only race which was unpredictable from a Placepot perspective, yet a great dividend of £298.90 was returned, despite the other five market leaders all finishing in the frame! New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner race in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives. With the ground as bad as it seemingly is at Plumpton, there must be a fair chance that this ‘dead event’ will be reduced in numbers whereby the ‘short field factor’ could come into play.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Sussex Champion Hurdle’:
1/3—Kings Walk (soft)
4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals between them with the older vintage representatives leading 4-3 during the study period. Four-year-old JUMPING JACK is the call this time around, though PULL TOGETHER should make a race of it at the business end of proceedings. Gary Moore’s runners always have to be respected here at Plumpton where he enjoys a better record than at his other ‘local’ track Fontwell, though both of his raiders should be put in their respective places by the afore mentioned pair on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Two of the last four winners scored at 25/1 & 14/1 following almost total domination by favourites for a long period. Seven market leaders have won via eleven renewals during the last twelve years, whilst ten of the last eleven favourites secured Placepot positions.
4.55: Heavy ground course winner THE LION DANCER cannot be opposed from a Placepot perspective, even though skinny odds of around 6/4 look likely to be in place, though those quotes are substantially better than the 8/11 price marked up in the trade press overnight. Conversely, 2/1 is the price across the board this morning about TWO HOOTS who was going to be around a 7/1 chance according to the relevant newspaper. Happy Easter!
Favourite factor: One of the two 2/1 joint favourites secured a Placepot position last year by winning the relevant contest.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/2—The Lion Dancer (heavy)
Record of the course winner in the seventh (non Placepot) race at 5.30 on today’s card:
1/4—Ramore Will (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.