EPSOM – OCTOBER 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £274.10 (7 favourites - 1 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Epsom:
Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Pheonix Lightning), 7 (Lexington Grace) & 3 (Kimifive)
Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Dee Ex Bee), 3 (Regimented) & 6 (Bowditch)
Leg 3 (3.15): 6 (Native Prospect), 5 (Sparte Quercus) & 2 (Emenem)
Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (Lord Glenaghcastle), 6 (Heatongrad) & 3 (Swiss Cross)
Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Hatsaway), 7 (Golden Wolf) & 6 (Fair Power)
Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Ajman King)
Suggested stake: 243 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Five of the seven gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of nine stokes in the race to date, statistics which eliminate the bottom five horses in the handicap, reducing the potential numbers from twelve down to seven. LEXINGTON GRACE would have qualified bang on the nine stone mark but for a seven pound claimer being booked to ride. The move by Richard Hannon basically puts a line through the course and distance winner from a win perspective from my viewpoint, though I find it difficult to envisage Richard’s Sir Prancealot filly missing out on a Placepot position. Others to consider over breakfast/Sunday brunch include KIMIFIVE and PHEONIX LIGHTNING.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten favourites (via seven renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include four winners.
Record of course winner in the field:
1/1—Lexington Grace (good to firm)
2.40: John Gosden saddles his first runner in this event since winning the race with Cloud Nine three years ago who was sent off as the 4/6 favourites. John’s raider BOWDITCH is on offer at 16/1 right across the board at the time of writing which of some interest from an each way perspective, given that John might have had his mind on matters across the English Channel when making his declarations of Friday. As far as likelier winners is concerned, DEE EX BEE and REGIMENTED are added into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Four of the last ten favourites have prevailed, the biggest priced winner during the period being a 9/2 chance.
3.15: Five of the eight winners (including four of the last five gold medallists) have carried a maximum burden of 9-1, statistics which bring the market leaders NATIVE PROSPECT and SPARTE QUERCUS into play from a Placepot perspective at the very least. Money has arrived for EMENEM in the dead of night and as the only course winner around this undulating circuit, Simon Dow’s three-year-old Sir Percy representative is catching the eye. You might remember that the sire had his day ‘in the sun’ at this venue eleven years ago!
Favourite factor: Four of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful (7/2-10/3-11/4) favourites.
Record of course winner in the third race:
3.45: Eight of the last eleven winners have carried a maximum burden of 8-13 and I will include both of this year’s qualifiers in my permutation, namely HEATONGAD and course and distance winner LORD CLENAGHCASTLE. Gary Moore’s latter named raider has won on good to soft ground around here already whereby his 15/2 quote makes for interesting reading this morning. SWISS CROSS is the potential party pooper in the line up however, with David Elsworth’s Frankel colt catching my attention on just his fourth assignment to date. The fact that the Godolphin representative gained his only success thus far on yielding ground adds icing on the potential cake.
Favourite factor: The top priced winner was returned at just 13/2 until a 25/1 chance in 2012 upset the apple-cart. Things have subsequently returned to ‘normal’ thankfully, albeit an 8/1 chance took the spoils twelve months ago. Two clear market leaders have scored via nine renewals during the last 12 years alongside a 4/1 joint favourite. Seven of the 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/1—Fujaira Bridge (good)
1/6—Lord Clenaghcastle (good to soft)
4.20: Local representative HATSAWAY is my each way bet of the day and as the only course winner here with the word ‘soft’ featuring in the relevant going description, I believe that Pat Phelan has a half decent chance of gaining another victory here at Epsom on a day in which his runners have run well in the past. Pat hat has saddled three winners on the corresponding card in recent years, two of them being sent off in double figures whereby the 20/1 quote about the speculative selection does not frighten me off in any shape or form. It’s worth noting that HATSAWAY is Pat’s only runner on the card which is an unusual scenario relating to the local trainer. I will admit to being a little wary of the declarations of both GOLDEN WOLF and FAIR POWER who represent the three-year-old vintage, which has produced five of the last eight winners of the contest.
Favourite factor: Five of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame, stats which include three successful market leaders. Whatever the outcome, it takes a brave punter to take restricted odds in an apprentice event around these twists and turns on ground that runs away from the far rail at the business end of the contest.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
2/2—C’Est No Mour (2 x good)
1/3—Fair Power (good)
1/1—Hatsaway (good to soft)
1/5—Cordite (good to firm)
4.55: Whichever way you roll the dice, AJMAN KING is the horse to beat in the Placepot finale and having ‘over indulged’ in the first five races on the card from a Placepot perspective, I am making Roger Varian’s Lope De Vega colt a banker in the last leg of our favourite wager. Andrea Atzeni’s mount won’t mind the conditions and of course, opting for a hot favourite in the last leg of our wager gives us a great deal of scope of ‘laying off’ if results have gone our way earlier on the card, especially if there is a decent dividend in the making. At around the 2/7 mark to reach the frame I’ll wager, it does not take a mathematician to evaluate the ‘bet to nothing’ option to take if we are live going into the finale.
Favourite factor: Seven of the nine favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include five winners. That said, the 1/3 market leader three years ago was beaten in a four runner 'win only' event, a result which was predicted in this column.
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Epsom card on Sunday followed by their ratios at the track this season + relevant profit/loss figures:
5 runners—Jim Boyle (1/16 – loss of 10 points)
5—Sylvester Kirk (1/13 – loss of 9 points)
4—Richard Hannon (3/21 – loss of 6 points)
3—Richard Fahey (1/24 – loss of 16 points)
3—Richard Hughes (1/3 +2)
3—Gary Moore (1/14 – loss of 6 points)
2—Andrew Balding (3/14 +15)
2—Ralph Beckett (0/10)
2—David Brown (0/4)
2—David Elsworth (0/2)
2—Mark Johnston (6/30 – slight profit)
2—David O’Meara (2/13 – loss of 2 points)
2—Joseph Tuite (0/1)
2—Roger Varian (2/4 +11)
+ 21 trainers with one entry
60 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Musselburgh: £15.00 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced