PONTEFRACT - AUGUST 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £61.10 (7 favourites - 2 winners & 5 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract:
Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Ginbar) & 2 (Viscount Loftus)
Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Bear Valley) & 7 (Melting Dew)
Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Ingleby Hollow), 4 (La Fritillaire) & 2 (Wordiness)
Leg 4 (4.00): 10 (Queen Kindly), 3 (Glenrowan Rose) & 4 (Peticoatgovernment)
Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Lomu), 4 (Rashford’s Double) & 5 (Isabella)
Leg 6 (5.10): 2 (Glassy Waters) & 1 (Ascot Week)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: Although seven horses line up for the opening contest, there is only serious money for the top two in the market at the time of writing, namely GINBAR and VISCOUNT LOFTUS. Awsaaf looks to be the only threat to the ‘dual forecast’ pair who should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest. New readers to the sport might need to be informed that the dual forecast was a tote bet in yesteryear whereby you simply named two horses to fill the first two positions in a race, without having to nominate which of the pair might win the race. The ‘pool bet’ simply offered a dividend to people who correctly named the first two horses in ‘either order’. Halycon days when people were not ‘swamped’ by a race going off every five minutes. Thankfully (unless you are interested in events over the Irish Sea), we have that type of ‘tranquillity’ on most Sunday afternoons throughout the year.
Favourite factor: This is another of the ‘new’ Novice races that the BHA put into practise a while ago, even though the title, class, distance and ‘make up’ of the contest is exactly the same as it always was. That’s why I have included the previous stats here, whereby it’s your choice if you want to take notice of the stats, or not! Eight of the last 18 favourites have won, whilst 14 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.
2.50: Three-year-olds had won five of the previous seven contests before trainers took leave of their senses four years ago when no junior raiders were declared. A 9/2 chance snared the silver medal in 2014 for good measure alongside another silver medal representative twelve months later. The race reverted to type from win perspective last year when the relevant 7/4 favourite hailed from the junior ranks. MELTING DEW and BEAR VALLEY represent Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston respectively, and we can (hopefully) look forward to the type of tussle that their runners used to offer up in three-year-old handicap races at main meetings for so many years. Mark has saddled three of the last nine winners of the race, whereby BEAR VALLEY is the marginal call on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via 16 renewals to date. Eleven of the eighteen favourites have snared toteplacepot positions in the process.
Course winners in the second race:
2/2—Muradaffeq (good & soft)
1/3—Theos Lolly (good)
3.25: Thirteen of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more though all ten declarations qualify via the weight trend this time around, leaving us without an ‘edge’ with which to work. Those seeking anything to aid and abet their cause might take the vintage trends into account, though many readers ignore the ages of winning horses once thoroughbreds have ‘turned four’. That said, I am obliged to point out that five-year-olds have secured four of the last six renewals and with INGLEBY HOLLOW and LA FRITILLAIRE representing the vintage today, the ratio could be extended this afternoon despite the fact that the latter named entry had drifted to 15/2 (4/1 quote in the trade press) at the time of writing. Both horses offer 1/4 stats at the track whilst ground conditions should not detract from the confidence of the relevant connections of either horse. Surprisingly, WORDINESS tackles his first event here at Pontefract despite having contested 37 races on turf to date. Silvestre De Sousa has secured eight points of level stake profit when riding for David Evans during the last five years via a strike rate of 19% via twelve winners.
Favourite factor: Three favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst 11 of the 21 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.
Course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/1—Almost Genini (heavy)
1/4—Ingleby Hollow (good to firm)
1/4—La Fritillaire (good to soft)
2/17—Tuscan Gold (2 x good to firm)
2/18—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)
4.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals, with last year’s 5/1 winner being the first horse mentioned in despatches. The pick of the relevant sextet of representatives on this occasion will hopefully prove to be GLENROWAN ROSE and the Irish raider PETICOATGOVERNMENT. That said, the Placepot chance for QUEEN KINDLY is there for all to see, though I’m not sure that I would be reeled in to get involved from a win perspective with Richard Fahey’s Frankel filly as short as 7/4 in places. The reserve nomination is awarded to RAVEN’S LADY.
Favourite factor: Three favourites (including two odds on chances) have scored via seventeen renewals to date. That said, only two of the other fifteen market leaders have finished in the frame.
Course winners in the fourth event:
1/2—Show Stealer (good)
Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result offered first):
1-3 (7 ran-good)
3-9 (7 ran-good)
2-10-1 (10 ran-good)
7-2-1 (12 ran-good to firm)
11-7-14 (12 ran-good to firm)
1-2-9 (11 ran-good to firm)
6-3-5 (12 ran-good to firm)
11-2-10 (11 ran-good to soft)
12-2-7 (9 ran-good)
7-16-1 (17 ran-good)
8-4-6 (12 ran-good to soft)
1-4-3 (10 ran-good to firm)
12-6-4 (12 ran-good to firm)
7-9-8 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-8-11 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-5 (7 ran-good)
9-1 (7 ran-good to firm)
4.35: Ten of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less and the trend could continue here via the relevant five 'qualifiers', namely RASHFORD’S DOUBLE and LOMU. The only time that LOMU has been beaten (via four assignments) was when racing away from turf, whilst Richard Fahey (RASHFORD’S DOUBLE) has saddled three of the last six winners of the contest. The weight trends appear to suggest that Eagle Creek represents poor value at 7/4 (Ladbrokes/Coral quote), though the top weight is even shorter with other firms. ISABELAA is also preferred from a value for money perspective.
Favourite factor: Five of the eighteen favourites have won to date, with nine market leaders securing toteplacepot positions in the process.
5.10: Three-year-olds have won 15 of the last 16 contests, though 'sporting' trainers are only conspicuous by their absence as no older horses have been entered in the Placepot finale. The 3/1 trade press quote about GLASSY WATERS is fanciful in the extreme with the Goldolphin raider as short as 5/6 with Hills this morning! Win lose or draw, Saeed Bin Suroor’s raider should secure a Placepot position, though similar comment also applies to ASCOT WEEK in a weak event. Layers have taken no chances with Mick Channon’s entry CARAVELA who ran well enough to finish third at the first time of asking at Goodwood, though I’m quick to point out that the effort was not recorded at the ‘Glorious’ meeting which would (otherwise) have gained my full attention in this company/grade.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 18 market leaders have obliged. The last six winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, whilst nine of the eleven market leaders during the last decade have finished in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell: £100.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced