WINCANTON – APRIL 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £55.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 80.8% units went through – 2/11* (Win only)
Race 2: 59.8% of the remaining units when through – Evens* (Win only)
Race 3: 18.8% of the remaining units went through – 13/8 (Win only - 5/4)
Race 4: 63.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 9/4*
Race 5: 84.2% of the remaining units went through – 1/14* (Win only)
Race 6: 27.0% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4 (Win only - 6/4)
Out of interest, the Placepot ‘prices’ in the win only races were as follows:
SP of 2/11* – Placepot ‘price’: 1/4
SP of Evens* – P’Pot: 4/6
SP of 13/8 – P’pot: 9/2
SP of 1/14* – P’pot: 1/5
SP of 9/4 – P’pot: 11/4
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Blu Cavalier), 3 (El Presente) & 4 (Malachite)
Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Little Miss Poet), 9 (The Sweeney) & 8 (Waterloo Warror)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (The Last But One) & 6 (Buster Thomas)
Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Volpone Jelois) & 4 (Canoodle)
Leg 5 (4.25): 6 (Diamond Guy), 4 (Big Difference) & 9 (Serosevsky)
Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Guerilla Tactics) & 3 (Bears Rails)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.15: Five-year-olds have ruled the roost having won five of the eleven contests, stats which are all the more impressive given that vintage representative were visible only by their absence twelve months ago. EL PRESENTE and MALACHITE are two half decent runners on behalf of the vintage though that said, Paul Nicholls has saddled five winners via his last seven runners in the race whereby hat trick seeker BLU CAVALIER has to be the call.
Favourite factor: Nine of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include six winners.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
1/1—Blu Cavalier (heavy)
2.50: Eleven of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more which basically eliminates the bottom five horses if you take the weight stats seriously. LITTLE MISS POET is a Placepot call but with the Philip Hobbs runners still failing to sparkle regularly, Richard Johnson’s mount is joined in the mix by speculative types such as THE SWEENEY and WATERLOO WARRIOR.
Favourite factor: Ten of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:
1/1—Paddy’s Runner (soft)
3.20: The potential thunderstorms I spoke of yesterday didn’t arrive until mid-evening here in the west-country and it remains to be seen (at the time of writing) whether Wincanton (and Stratford come to that) were hit as hard as Bristol in terms of rainfall. Either way, it’s difficult to oppose the 3/4 fencing record of THE LAST BUT ONE and the Paul Nicholls representative is expected to score again, chiefly at the expense of BUSTER THOMAS.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite finished second when claiming a Placepot position before last year’s 5/4 market leader could only finish third in a four runner ‘win only’ event.
Record of the two course winners in the field:
1/4—The Last But One (heavy)
3.50: Paul Nicholls usually finds a half decent inmate to contest these amateur rider events and this year’s stable representative is VOLPONE JELOIS. Paul’s five-year-old raider will not represent good value but hopefully having reached the second half of our favourite wager, we don’t want to become too preoccupied with prices with a dividend to be won, any which way and how. CANOODLE is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite found one too good for him in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winner in fourth race:
1/6—Zulu Oscar (good to soft)
4.25: Paul Nicholls has won both races to date whereby DIAMOND GUY is the first name on the team sheet, especially as Harry Cobden’s mount is the only horse in the fifteen strong field to have attracted any real cash in the positive exchange queue at the time of writing. Other to consider include BIG DIFFERENCE and SEROSEVSKY.
Favourite factor: Two extremely hot favourites have won this race to date at odds of 1/8 & 1/14. Thank goodness we have a more competitive event to look forward to this afternoon.
Record of course winner in the fifth event:
1/2—Diamond Guy (good to firm)
4.55: GUERILLA TACTICS might well have maintained an unbeaten record here at Wincanton the last day but for falling in a heap on landing. His chance to reap compensation for connections is there for all to see with BEARS RAILS the likeliest silver medallist in the field.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 market leader could only finish second in yet another ‘win only’ event which dominated the card twelve months ago.
Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/6—Water Wagtail (good to soft)
1/2—Guerilla Tactics (good)
1/9—Shanann Star (soft)
Record of the course winner in the 8th (non Placepot) race at 6.00:
1/1—Dashel Drasher (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.