KEMPTON (NH) - OCTOBER 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £468.70 (9 favourites - 2 winners & 7 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (2.10): 7 (Risk And Roll) & 5 (Jumping Jack)
Leg 2 (2.40): 5 (Go West Young Man), 3 (Bach De Clermont) & 2 (Land League)
Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (New Agenda), 1 (Amour De Nuit) & 5 (Listen To The Man)
Leg 4 (3.50): 8 (Breath Of Blighty), 2 (Noche Des Reyes) & 7 (Oliver’s Hill)
Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Old Guard) & 5 (San Benedeto)
Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Better Days), 6 Flight Commander) & 5 (Ramore Will)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Alan King has let the side down badly here by withdrawing City Dreamer, the trainer having won this event with five of his last six runners in the contest. Upwards an onward in positive fashion however by suggesting that the even money quote about RISK AND ROLL looks a little wide of the mark with potential investors likely to be chasing 8/11 about the Paul Nicholls raider in the opening event. If the differential does not look like a big deal to you, the margin is akin to a horse being backed down from 9/1 to 5/1. Nicky Henderson (ruler of this particular roost) is only conspicuous by his absence at the venue today, whereby Chris Gordon might represent the biggest threat with JUMPING JACK. That said, EXPRESSO FREDDO would only have to stay this trip to a reasonable degree to bustle up the afore-mentioned pair. If Tom O’Brien’s mount is going to stay two miles, this is the very place you would pick for his NH debut.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 16 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) via 13 renewals. Potential investors need to tread carefully however (as told eight years ago when a 2/5 favourite was beaten), as horses have been beaten at odds of 1/4--2/5--4/9--4/6—4/6 in recent seasons.
2.40: Just two course winners appear on the entire Kempton card, the first of which is GO WEST YOUNG MAN for Henry Daly who has one of the better records at the track relating to the represented trainers this afternoon. Henry’s seven pound claimer has ridden five winners and though Henry’s Westerner gelding appears to better suited to timber as opposed to fences, a chance is taken that this could be his day in the sun in a race which should not prove difficult to win. His 16/1 quote this morning certainly represents value for money, if only from a Placepot perspective. The great thing about having a claiming pilot in the saddle is that if there is a hope of gaining a place in a contest, young pilots are more driven to seek out that option over an ex-champion in the plate, if you catch my drift. More logical winners in the field (arguably) include BACH DE CLERMONT and LAND LEAGUE.
Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders (via three renewals) have snared Placepot positions with winning their relevant events.
Record of the course winner in the second race on the card:
1/3—Go West Young Man (good)
3.15: Although the Kempton figures of Paul Webber at the foot of the page fail to make for exciting reading, it’s still worth pointing out that Paul has only saddled more winners at Huntingdon (six) than he has managed here during the last five years. Indeed, NEW AGENDA finished second at 28/1 in a ‘short field’ contest in this event twelve months ago. The demise of the 4/7 favourite in that contest helped to bring about last year’s decent Placepot dividend of the thick end of ‘a monkey’. New Agenda attempts to go one better on behalf of the five-year-old vintage which seeks a hat trick in the contest, stats which also bring AMORE DE NUIT into the equation. LISTEN TO THE MAN (in receipt of four pounds from the first named pair) looks likely to be prominent and this trio could serve up a good race between them. Hurdling debutant Cockney Wren represents Harry Fry who has saddled three of his last seven runners to winning effect. This is a tough (Listed race) introduction however, though Harry knows the time of day which adds plenty of interest to proceedings. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 15 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (six winners). The biggest priced winner was returned at 11/2 before a 12/1 gold medallist reared its ugly head to gold medal effect five years ago. The race has thankfully reverted to type of late with the last four winners have been sent off at 10/3 or less.
3.50: Tom George (saddled a winner at least year’s corresponding fixture) does not feature in the trainers list below having just one runner on the card. That said, NOCHE DES REYES (second in this race last year) represents a table with an 18% strike rate at the frack during the last five years via 10 winners. Carrying twelve pounds more than was the case twelve months ago here makes this a tough ask, though his Placepot credentials are certainly good enough to warrant inclusion in my permutation. Course winner BREATH OF BLIGHTY is another Paul Webber runner on the card with win and place claims, especially as Paul’s six-year-old gelding has received overnight support on the exchanges at the time of writing. 10/1 is still available in a place or two but possibly not for long. OLIVER’S HILL completes my somewhat speculative trio against the remaining five contenders in what I hope will remain a ‘dead eight’ contest.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 favourite was one of four horses that failed to complete in a nine runner contest. For information purposes, the frame was filled by horses sent off at 10/1, 5/1 & 4/1.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/3—Breath Of Blighty (good)
4.20: I was promoting this meeting yesterday when others were scurrying about trying to find winners at Ascot though always trying to be as honest as possible, this race has come up short compared to recent renewals. Taking nothing away from OLD GUARD and SAN BENEDETO, any entries their connections make for the Champion Hurdle later this season would be speculative at best! The New One set the standard by winning three renewals on the bounce before Hargam gained the day twelve months ago. Respectfully, the two (Paul Nicholls trained) horses mentioned in despatches this time around are not in the same class though that said, they should secure a Placepot position or two between them. Rayvin Black will (no doubt) try and run his rivals into the ground which will at least add interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last fifteen favourites have won (joint market leaders were recorded last year), whilst the other six gold medallists were returned at 7/4, 2/1, 11/4, 11/4, 9/1 and 25/1.
4.50: BETTER DAYS, FLIGHT COMMANDER and RAMORE WILL are attracting some support as I write and with little else influencing yours truly, I expect this trio to successfully produce a Placepot dividend between them, if weld held live units doing into the finale of our favourite wager. Even the mother-in-law could not prize money from my wallet relating to a wager from a win perspective in the contest.
Favourite factor: Although favourites have won eight of the 17 renewals since the turn of the Millennium, just five of the other 14 market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Sunday – followed by their five year ratios + level stake profit/losses accrued:
6 runners—Paul Nicholls (28/140 – loss of 10 points)
5—Dan Skelton (8/85 – loss of 58 points)
4—Paul Webber (5/50 – loss of 9 points)
2—Henry Daly (3/10 +9)
2—Robert Eddery (No previous runners)
2—Harry Fry (10/51 – loss of 18 points)
2—Chris Gordon (8/43 +48)
2—Sophie Leech (0/2)
2—Oliver Sherwood (6/35 +2)
+22 trainers with just one runner on the card
49 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell (A/W): This is a new fixture on the racing calendar