PONTEFRACT – JUNE 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £31.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 80.4% units went through – 3/1 – 2/1* - 13/2
Race 2: 69.8% of the remaining units when through – 1/3* (Win only)
Race 3: 36.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 11/4 (5/2)
Race 4: 64.8% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 9/1 – 40/1
Race 5: 38.2% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 (11/8)
Race 6: 20.0% of the units secured the dividend – 7/4 & 7/1 (11/8)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Heavenly Bliss) & 4 (Poetry)
Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Hazarfya) & 1 (Beauvais)
Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Dr Richard Kimble), 2 (Rainbow Rebel) & 3 (Indomeneo)
Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Alwaysandforever) & 5 (Cribbs Causeway)
Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Frederic), 1 (Suegioo) & 8 (Becky The Thatcher)
Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Excellent Times), 2 (Crotchet), 4 (Procedure) & 3 (Revived)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: Mark Johnston (not represented this year) might have been frightened away by the two Newmarket raiders HEAVENLY BLISS and POETRY who are listed in order of preference at the time of writing. Sir Michael Stoute (HEAVENLY BLISS) will be looking for compensation following the defeat of his 2/1 market leader twelve months ago when finding one too good on the day. POETRY is a Kingman representative and Michael Bell has found a half decent chance for his January foal to score at the first time of asking.
Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured one silver medal between them alongside a Placepot position.
2.30: Mark Johnston’s Thirsk winner Bayshore Freeway is not easily overlooked, especially as Mark’s three-year-old humped 10-2 to victory the last day. That said, the two Newmarket raider look particularly strong on this occasion, with HAZARFIYA marginally preferred to Saeed Bon Suroor’s debut Ripon winner BEAUVAIS. Sir Michael Stoute’s first named raider ran in the Cheshire Oaks last time out and this drop in grade should bring about a victory, especially with the trainer currently boasting a 33% strike rate via his last seven winners, statistics which have produced level stake profits of 22 points via some of the most difficult races to win on the entire racing calendar!
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract card.
3.00: Only eighteen three-year-olds have contested this event to date, producing four winners, four seconds, two thirds and three fourth placed efforts in the process, whilst ten of the eleven winner have carried 8-13 or more. Unfortunately, the relevant trio of three-year-olds fail the weight trend but that said, it’s difficult to leave DR RICHARD KIMBLE and INDOMENEO out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective. I highlighted the chance of 12/1 shot RAINBOW REBEL at Chelmsford the other night (returned at 9/1) and it’s significant that Mark’s runner up has been declared just three days later.
Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
3/13—Trinity Star (2 x good & good to firm)
3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 8-4 during the last twelve years and having pinned my faith on the last two 9/1 and even money (four-year-old) winners, I’ll opt for ALWAYSANDFOREVER to complete the hat trick in a fascinating contest. Her nine length victory at Windsor last time out had to be seen to be believed and with Luca Cumani champing at the bit to find winners just now (Luca had no runners at Royal Ascot during the entire week), we can safely presume that Ryan Moore’s mount will be well fired up today. Luca boasts a 24% strike rate at this venue down the years and it is surely significant that ALWAYSANDFOREVER is his first runner at the track this season. CRIBBS CAUSEWAY is preferred to Mark Johnston tigress Titi Makfi, albeit oh so marginally.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include five winners.
4.00: I have made reference to these Pontefract staying events plenty of times, but I reiterate that this contest resembles a graded greyhound race with the greatest respect to our canine friends, whereby horses go into the traps shaking hooves, begging the question, whose turn is it to win today? If you want proof of that statement, you only have to digest the fact that four of the six course winners which contest the Placepot races at Pontefract this afternoon line up for this event. Upwards and onward however by suggesting that six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, which suggests that SUEGIOO and last year’s beaten favourite FREDERIC enter the equation. Add BECKY THE THATCHER into the mix and we should get through to the Placepot finale, providing we have survived the first four legs successfully.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last twenty market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three favourites which prevailed from a win perspective during the study period.
Record of course winners in the fifth contest:
2/3—Win Place And Sho (good to firm & good to soft)
1/2—Medicine Hat (good)
1/2—Becky The Thatcher (good to firm)
4.30: PROCEDURE is a 9/1 chance with four leading firms this morning which looks a tad big given Sir Muchael Stoute’s current form (see full details in the 2.30 analysis). That said, the claims of EXCELLENT TIMES and CROTCHET at the top of the market are impossible to ignore. I have this nagging worry that a non-runner might raise its ugly head in the last leg our favourite wager, whereby I am also including Michael Bell’s raider REVIVED into the equation, given that the race would develop in to a frightening ‘win only’ contest should my notion evolve.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Pontefract programme.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.