FONTWELL – FEBRUARY 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £239.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners – 1 one placed – 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell:
Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (The Unit), 2 (Copain De Classe) & 1 (Space Oddity)
Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Brown Bear), 9 (Moneystown) & 1 (Fergal Mael Duin)
Leg 3 (3.20): 5 (Dr Des), 1 (Lil Rockerfeller) & 2 (Old Guard)
Leg 4 (3.55): 10 (Niblawi) & 3 (Aptly Put)
Leg 5 (4.25): 2 (Unioniste)
Leg 6 (4.55): 9 (Roll Of The Dice), 10 (Quiz Master) & 4 (Cintex)
Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: Much depends not only on the result of the 8.00 inspection at Fontwell later this morning but also on the participation of THE UNIT after yesterday’s gallop around Kempton which witnessed some indifferent jumping relating to Alan King’s potential raider. Either way, I’m including Alan’s seven-year-old Gold Well representative in the Placepot mix because in the event of THE UNIT being withdrawn, the relevant Placepot support would be transferred onto the favourite. Quite which one of the two remaining horses would be returned as the market leader is open to debate, albeit COPAIN DE CLASSE is slightly shorter than SPACE ODDITY in most lists in the dead of night.
Favourite factor: Both (1/5 & 10/11) favourites have obliged to date.
2.50: Seven and eight-year-olds have (equally) share six of the seven renewals to date and with one representative of each vintage having been declared on this occasion, both BROWN BEAR and MONEYSTOWN are included in the Placepot mix in a race which could produce the type of result which creates a decent dividend. I made the same comment in a race at Kempton yesterday before 56% of the units were lost, the type of result which is required on any card to offer encouragement to play our favourite wager. FERGAL MAEL DUIN is added into the mix; given that Colin Tizzard is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this event down the years. Although Linda Jewell’s stats at Fontwell are not anything to write home about (see relevant figures at the foot of the analysis), it’s worth noting that the trainer secured a 98/1 double on this corresponding card four years ago and Moneystown arguably offers the best claims of Linda’s four runners today.
Favourite factor: Six of the seven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four (5/2-2/1-2/1-5/2) winners.
Record of the course winners in the second race on the card:
2/6—Fergal Mael Duin (good to soft & soft)
3/8—Brown Bear (2 x good & good to firm)
2/4—Stoical Patient (2 x good)
3.20: LIL ROCKERFELLER returns to defend her crown having scored by nine lengths under yielding conditions two years ago. Neil King’s fine servant was due to contest the race last year before being withdrawn (off colour) and equipped with blinkers here after a slightly disappointing effort the last day, Trevor Whelan’s mount should be there or thereabouts turning for home. Paul Nicholls attempts to win the race for third time in seven years with OLD GUARD, whilst DR DES represents Henry Oliver who has saddled three of his last four runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Ten of the nineteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include seven winners. The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 9/1, save for a 16/1 gold medallist which scored four years ago.
Record of the course winners in the third contest:
1/1—Lil Rockerfeller (good to soft)
3.55: NIBLAWI is the subject of some substantial realistic money in the positive queue on the exchanges at the time of writing and with (arguably) only APTLY PUT to beat in a disappointing turn out, the potential cash could prove to be well invested. From a Placepot perspective, I have no hesitation in offering this pair against the field.
Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have just one silver medal (alongside a Placepot position) to show for their endeavours.
4.25: 12 ‘household handlers’ have won this Hunter Chase event during the last 14 years, statistics which include nine of the last ten contests which is worth noting, as none of the seven runners in 2013 hailed from ‘professional‘ ranks. Paul Nicholls has won all four recent contests when his team have been represented, whereby UNIONIST is considered the banker on the card.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 16 favourites have won this event, whilst 14 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. Favourites come into the contest on an eight timer on this occasion.
Record of the course winners in the fifth event:
4.55: The 20/1 quote in the trade press about the chance of ROLL OF THE DICE always looked fanciful from my viewpoint, a notion which has obviously been shared around the country as Gary Moore’s six-year-old is as short as 9/1 with a few firms at the time of writing. QUIZ MASTER will win a race soon rather than later I’ll wager, whilst CINTEX makes a degree of appeal on his handicap bow, especially with the ground drying up in his favour.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/5 favourite was one of two horses which failed to complete the course.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Bold Image (good to soft)
2/12—Join The Navy (2 x heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Fontwell card on Sunday – followed by ratios at the track this season + their five year figures & profits/losses accrued on both counts:
5 runners—Paul Nicholls (3/11 – loss of 6 points) – 27/65 – loss of 3
4—Nick Giifford (2/23 – loss of 12) – 8/75 – loss of 25
4—Linda Jewell (1/6 – loss of 1) – 5/62 – loss of 28
4—Gary Moore (47/322 – loss of 44) – 6/67 – loss of 35
4—Neil Mulholland (7/34 – loss of 1) – 36/140 +20
3—Seamus Mullins (4/38 +6) – 13/140 – loss of 9
3—Oliver Sherwood (1/13 – loss of 10) – 9/71 – loss of 39
2—Harry Fry (3/6 – slight profit) – 13/40 +5
2—Chris Gordon (5/46 – loss of 29) – 39/273 – loss of 45
2—Brendan Powell (0/6) – 3/81 – loss of 60
2—Richard Rowe (0/4) – 2/49 – loss of 39
2—Dan Skelton (4/20 – loss of 4) – 17/71 – loss of 1
2—Suzy Smith (0/6) – 7/56 – loss of 22
2—Colin Tizzard (6/19 +3) – 19/100 – loss of 26
+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
59 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell: £208.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced