EXETER - NOVEMBER 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £105.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (12.55): 6 (Minella Gathering), 8 (Moonlight Flyer) & 2 (We’ll Be There)
Leg 2 (1.25): 4 (Braw Angus), 3 (All Kings) & 2 (Thomas Patrick)
Leg 3 (1.55): 5 (Castarnie) & 4 (Goohar)
Leg 4 (2.25): 2 (Dual At Dawn), 4 (Impulsive Star), 1 (Brelan D’As) & 3 (Flintham)
Leg 5 (2.55): 3 (Turban), 6 (Keep Moving) & 5 (Crafty Roberto)
Leg 6 (3.25): 4 (Mercenaire) & 2 (Harbour Force)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.55: Paul Henderson is probably still ‘dining out’ via his Cheltenham winner last weekend and there is a chance than another winner could come his way after placing MINELLA GATHERING to good effect here in a race which should not prove difficult to win. Jeremy Scott’s runners have been blowing hot and cold so far this season but having saddled two of his last eight runners to winning effect (34 points of level stake profit during the period), MOONLIGHT FLYER is the preferred option of Jeremy’s two raiders in the opening event. WE’LL BE THERE should prove difficult to kick out of the frame.
Favourite factor: The three market leaders to date have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety whilst gaining Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/3—Tactical Manouvre (good)
1/5—Steel Express (heavy)
1/7—Admiral Blake (soft)
1.25: Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1, stats which unfortunately only eliminate one runner (Eddy) on this occasion. Upwards and onward in positive mode however by informing that 13 of the last 20 runners saddled by Kim Bailey have secured Placepot positions, albeit that just three winners have emerged during the period. The stats suggests that BRAW ANGUS should be the first name on the team sheet, whilst each way types to consider include ALL KINGS and THOMAS PATRICK who should offer value for money for ‘Potters’, especially with seven pound claimers riding both horses.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (11/2) winner.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1.55: You Say What should be at home under these (soft) conditions but David Pipe’s seven-year-old was drifting like the proverbial barge on the exchanges in the dead of night. CASTARNIE is expected to confirm recent form with that rival accordingly, especially with Harry Cobden looking to overcome the disappointment of an ordinary effort by Cur Card in the big race on Saturday. That said, Harry still earned plenty of plaudits on the day for his successful effort aboard Clan Des Obeaux and having ridden eight of his last 21 mounts to winning effect, Harry looks booked to go close here on CATSTARNIE. Nicky Martin is saddling winners whereby the chance of According To Harry is respected, though GOOHAR is nominated as the main threat to the selection this time around.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have missed out on Placepot positions via four renewals to date.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
3/11—Umberto D’Olivate (2 x soft & good)
2/4—You Say What (good to soft & heavy)
3/9—Only Gorgeous (good – good to firm – soft)
1/2—Thamanfrom Minella (good to soft)
2.25: The ‘outsider of four’ is rarely considered in terms of results in ‘win only’ contests, certainly not compared to the outsider of three adage which I touched on earlier this month. For the record in November to date, 25 such horses have contested four runner races (ignoring one joint outsider – both were beaten out of interest), with just one (4/1) chance having scored. That hardly sets a precedent I’ll admit but it’s as well to have all the facts and figures available to you which I have attempted to offer these last seventeen years! It could prove difficult to ascertain the outsider of four on this occasion if you take the opinion that one is due to score soon. Money has been in evidence for DUEL AT DAWN (potential outsider according to the trade press) overnight on the exchanges though whichever way the betting goes nearer to flag fall, I’m likely to include all four runners in the Placepot mix, hoping that the horse with the least number of units wins the day. I just know you are fascinated by such studies, whereby I can reveal that two of the twelve relevant horses as ‘outsiders of three’ this month have won at 4/1 & 9/4, offering a level stake loss of less than four points.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has gained a Placepot position thus far as we still await the first success market leader from a win perspective.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
1/1—Impulsive Star (soft)
2.55: The type of race which could set up the Placepot nicely in terms of a decent dividend, this event comes under the heading of almost being too difficult to call. In such circumstances, it makes sense to side with value for money types which in this instance includes TURBAN and KEEP MOVING from my viewpoint. Given his Placepot record of late, I also feel duty bound to include CRAFTY ROBERTO in the mix.
Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) though just two of the last nine contests has been won by favourites.
3.25: I believe that this is a meeting which could produce a dividend which is really worth winning, mainly because of the lack of multiple entries from the top trainers in the land. This produces more ‘split decisions’ as punters weigh up the options which leads yours truly to picking out the probable market leaders in the Placepot finale, in the hope that I have reason to ‘lay off’ the relevant runners at very short odds if the bet is still running after leg five. MERCENAIRE and HARBOUR FORCE are selected accordingly.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged before one of last year’s two joint (5/2) favourites added a Placepot position without winning the relevant contest.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Exeter card on Sunday – followed by this season’s stats at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners— Neil Mulholland (0/6)
3—Jimmy Frost (0/5)
3—Sue Gardner (3/16 +5)
3—Jeremy Scott (0/10)
3—Laura Young (0/3)
2—Johnny Farrelly (1/3 +18)
2—Polly Gundry (0/1)
2—Alex Hales (No previous runners this season)
2—Paul Henderson (0/4)
2—David Pipe (1/11 – level profit/loss this season)
2—Tim Vaughan (0/8)
2—Robert Walford (1/6 – loss of 2 points)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Uttoxeter: £65.90 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced